RE: Interesting11 Nov 2020 15:36
Ouch. Very tough few days here, it's a shame that good news for the world has meant bad news for our SP, made it a bit harder to celebrate. But it is ultimately very good news for everyone.
It caught me out. My working assumption was that the market already expected a vaccine. I guess we didn't expect it to be this effective or this quick. I'm envious of those who managed to trade out and back in and those building positions at these prices. Commiserations to those like me who feel a bit hard up with our piles of placing shares. My timing here has been unfortunate this time round. But - onwards and upwards. Grateful to Polar Capital for being our port in a storm.
I think the professionals are right to urge caution - we don't actually have the vaccine yet and there is less than 2 months of data from less than 100 patients infected. However, it does feel like a turning point and bodes well for other vaccines too. Light at the end of the tunnel - but we're still at the wrong end of the tunnel.
There are also still those who can't have it, those who won't, and those where it doesn't work. And lots of unknowns - crucially we don't know if it prevents infection or just symptoms, in which case it can't help us stop the virus spreading.
I guess there has been some panic about our prospects, but quite a lot of investors are probably just seeking easier/safer short term gains elsewhere at the moment. This is a signpost of a way out of lockdowns, getting the numbers under control, returning to economic activity etc. I can see how buying cheap bluechips is attractive. Biden's win also adds some certainty and optimism for many.
Most of us here believe in the drug and accept the risks of P3, so the important question maybe more about demand for it. SNG001 has great prospects beyond covid, but it seems very premature to discount use in covid.
Our production plan is for 100,000 treatment courses per month. We are currently at 10,000 hospitalisations per week in the UK alone. The numbers are sadly likely to get worse before they get better.
As things stand, there is global demand for effective covid treatments that is far larger than we could hope to supply and still growing exponentially, with no indication of slowing down. Sadly it's far too soon to even call the peak of the virus, let alone the end.
If P3 bears out the P2 success, I expect high demand for SNG001 for a long time to come. The current market cap could be earned in a single month of sales. We're fully funded to get there. I plan to hold for results. It did work the first time :)
Best wishes to all.