Member Info for hold4results

Wine, yes, it's been discussed here already. Sounds like good news to me. As you point out, that's an ongoing prophylactic treatment - a vaccine for some of the people who can't have vaccines.
Whereas our intended use is as a treatment for people who already have covid-19. Our drug is given for 2 weeks to boost the immune system to fight off a virus, it doesn't have long lasting preventive effects.

Like I keep saying, we need everything we can get. There is an enormous global demand which is growing exponentially. Perhaps in 2 or 3 months we'll start seeing some impact from vaccines. As a crude measure, I'd like to get to the point where the vaccination rate overtakes the infection rate, I will consider that a milestone in the race.

Personally, I do not see lack of demand as a concern any time soon. Our part in this for now is to complete P3 and supply 100k treatments a month starting hopefully Q1 next year.

There are similarities, but we can legitimately have more confidence in the success of P3 than we had in the success of P2
On broad stats, far more drugs fail at P2 than at P3. The broker puts P3 at 70% chance of success.
Personally I rated P2 at a 50% chance of success and I put P3 over 90%.

Drugs companies have to get special permission to sell their products. They do something called a clinical trial, where the scientists do some very careful experiments to make sure the drug doesn't hurt people, and that it works properly.
After that, if everything is ok, the company is allowed to sell the drug so it can make people better.
Then the shareholders earn some money because they paid for it to happen and took the risk that it might go wrong.

The guidance is Q4 and the aim is November, so I expect a P3 RNS within the next two weeks.
My wild guess is Monday 30th November.

Best wishes - congratulations on their getting into the trial, I hope you get more benefit from SNG001 than you'd planned.

Home trial numbers were 120 for the pilot and then an intention to recruit between 100 and 300 for the pivotal arm depending on the pilot outcome. However, we ought to know if the pilot had been completed or extended.
I wonder if they have to aim at 150 signups to get 120 fully recruited, but maybe clutching at straws a bit there.
Could just be miscommunication, I'm sure everyone's rushed off their feet

So the US gov gave AZ $500 million to run 12 month P3 trials for an expensive preventative treatment.
Suggests they anticipate the need for it.

Seb/Org/Rob/Axe
This is a new low.

Road safety is important and it's always a good time to be reminded.

Good on you Trinityman. People from this board promoting the home trial have already had an impact and brought results day forward, even just letting friends and family know the trial is there is helpful.

Home trial results could be quite a boost if he's right and the results turn out even better. It does make sense that the earlier the patient gets the drug, the better the outcome. If we show a big reduction in patients requiring hospitalisation that may be a big inflection point, it even could tip the balance in favour of emergency use authorisation.

Maybe they could achieve the same goal without just ignoring IP, let anyone capable of manufacturing do it under some sort of general licence. It's not like India ever pays full western prices for drugs anyway and they have an enormous generic pharma manufacturing sector, it would be crazy to risk shortages when the capacity is there. Not sure about biologics.

Once you've got 20 countries on board, other countries get jealous and want in.
I suspect it's just about lining up plenty of alternatives, at one point RM talked about 'chasing the virus round the world', we need the flexibility to go where it's prevalent at the time. Unlikely we'll actually end up with 26 countries recruiting IMO

Margin is a good point. If we do end up selling it direct to govts before any big pharma deal, margin on that should be very healthy. I think RM did point out it wouldn't be too difficult if Clinigen can handle distribution and pharmacovigilance.
Actually was it manifesto who predicted we'd be going it alone - hope she's still around!

I still think the most likely outcome is a deal following (successful) P3 results, but as long as we can get on with selling then there's no need to rush into anything, we can take our time and maximise value.

Elsol - yes of course, vaccines are the mass market (100s of millions) and SNG001 will be targeted (100s of thousands) and relatively high cost. Impossible to ever be sure but I agree that the current share price does not appear to reflect the potential and I expect that to change, sooner or later.

Sorry, I'm being sarky but on reading it back that's not obvious

What a boring strategy.
You should sell your shares and buy other ones that will go up more, and then you can sell them and come back and get more shares for less money.
If you buy whatever shares are going up the most, that way you'll make the most money. Stands to reason.

Sounds very promising, maybe better than dexamethasone. It is aimed at patients already on ventilators though.
Still a far better option to give SNG001 at stage 3 or 4 and never reach the critical stage or ICU in the first place.
Just as vaccines won't help everyone, SNG001 won't help everyone. We need everything we can get. There is currently 1 approved treatment that reduces mortality 30%. This is not a crowded market. We're up against the clock and the virus, not competitors and vaccines. It's fantastic that there is finally some hope of a way through. Meanwhile, demand continues to rise exponentially. I am wholly confident that success in P3 will result in more demand than we can supply throughout 2021 and beyond.

I think the response to the announcement from the antis seems muted, which bodes well.
Obviously there is a big difference between feeling a bit unsure/reluctant and believing they're injecting us with microchips, the first group need their concerns answered as far as possible, the second group need psychological help which isn't going to happen any time soon.
As you say there will be some rate of adverse effects, some will be severe, and sooner or later there will be fatalities.
I.e. maybe 1 in a million will die, BUT 1000 will live who would have died otherwise.
It does look like Oxford are being more cautious with their announcements as this one was only analysis from P2, though could just be they're a bit behind.
I think they'll all be forgiven if the efficacy reports are a bit premature, but any serious safety issues would be an enormous setback.
If the regulator says the safety profile is acceptable, I'll take it, but I doubt they'll get round to me in 2021.
My guess is that the priority groups who are old or ill will tend to have more direct experience of doing what the doctor says - hopefully not so many antis.

Parsley, you need to at least learn enough to make your lies believable.
I'm not suggesting you may have been lying or fishing to find out - I'm telling you I know for a fact that was literally impossible.
If you don't know what SYGGF has to do with OTC, then that's some homework for you, you can find that out.

Come on Parse, you can always just make it up, remember "I bought 200k at 1.39" :)

OTC volumes too low to matter.

Think this may be helpful for the less technical folks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU