Member Info for hold4results

Are the lucky pants fire-resistant? If so I know some folks who could use a pair.

It is probably because I have that listening to you lie about it is so particularly offensive.
Seek psychological help.

Sorry, posted in error. I want to set us a puzzle. My hypothesis, which sounds a bit crazy, is that if we get approved and sell at £2k/course, interferon beta will be among the most valuable substances by weight ever to exist, excepting possibly anti-matter. Obviously helps that our dosage is very tiny by weight.

Assuming approval and sales at the sort of prices we've been looking at

My view is that the way to get the cost down is to generate orders which justify further investment. As RM says, we have to prove that we are good value for money. We will also likely have more competition sooner or later. Prices/margins may well come down over time (from quite a high start and maybe not very far, but still.) The ideal outcome for now is that SNG001 becomes the optimum standard of care for covid. If that happens, whatever the price or margin, we will have the warm fuzzy feeling of making the world a better place. Also megabucks.

Assuming all goes well, I would like to see it licenced as widely as possible, to allow cost-price generics for the developing world. The developed world will need to subsidise both vaccines and treatments for everyone - or else accept permanent border closures and shut ourselves off, but I doubt that would work anyway. Whatever we do in the UK, if we allow pools of the virus to continue evolving elsewhere, it will get back to us.

If I can be a bit dramatic, I think the world has permanently changed. Biosecurity will now become a permanent feature of our lives. On the upside, it has been/is/will be a period of massive scientific leaps forward.

Exactly ARKV. Ebola mortality rate is something like 90%, horrible disease, but we can react and contain it and so far it always burns itself out fairly quickly. Covid has a much lower mortality rate but has already killed far more people.
And lower is relative - it's still 10x worse than flu without dex, it has all sorts of longer term effects etc.

@playing - I'd be careful of applying received wisdom 'viruses/pandemics get weaker' until there is evidence to confirm it is true in this case. Many viruses do not get weaker and go away. See HIV, for example.
I agree that there's no need to panic but it's important to be realistic and good to listen to experts - these links are good info from professionals.

Thanks Joey. At this point it looks like evolution is one step ahead of us.

We're probably a bit late with closing borders but maybe more worrying is that several of the key mutations are apparently showing up independently around the world, which suggests they are heavily selected for even before the selection pressure of vaccines (which have barely started, overall.)

I think the idea of 95% effective vaccines is going to be short-lived. Vaccines are still the main weapon in the armoury and the only option that can be scaled quickly enough. We will probably have to get used to switching between them, finding the most effective, and keep updating them to stay ahead. Combined vaccines look likely.

No problem.

Parsley, Dan says you're the thicko.

I don't really expect interim analysis on (already reduced) P3, just the futility analysis which would only be an announcement if there was cause to stop the trial early. Calling the trial SPRINTER is a nice touch. They know they can't bank on it but a quick trial is possible if everyone plays nicely. March is not impossible, I think Feb is too optimistic - but we could/should/will be on Activ2 and maybe a care home trial too by then.

It's just a bit less painful if you're already prepared for it to fall and a nice surprise when you're wrong.
It could do anything. Maybe tomorrow is the day a major US II starts taking a big stake.
Or maybe Polar loses half their fund and has to sell out here.
9th November, that was a big drop. Tomorrow ought to be plain sailing in comparison.

Interesting. As you've noted, the assumption of a 15% royalty is looking very wobbly now. My instinct is to adjust this towards SNG keeping much more of the value, but also to be a bit more cautious with the PE as long-term predictions are still going to be quite difficult.

If the virus is here to stay and the vaccines are here to stay, then treatments are also here to stay.
We're not competing in the same market as vaccines.

That's bad luck. It could still be less severe due to the vaccine. Best wishes.

With 10.5 million people I'm not sure how out of the ordinary those numbers are.
If that report includes everything that might possibly be linked, a lot of those events may not be vaccine-related?

Endpoints... hmmm... how about 100M patients treated in 20 years. May not be probable, but it is possible.
Revenue of >£1000 per share :)

Thank you for reporting back, that's quite reassuring, it doesn't sound too bad.
Hopefully they won't need to take the foot.

Shadow has been quite disruptive here all along, this is not his first username. He gets a bit paranoid sometimes and had to take a little break to think about things but unfortunately came to the wrong conclusions again.
Not a big critical thinker.

Let me try to explain the difference between covid and flu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXypyrutq_M

Thanks for your concern. I'm not sure why you're here. I'm not sure you are either.