Member Info for Hogsnipe

Just out today - Australian Peak Resources are to go ahead with Pensana copycat RE refinery on the Tees at Wilton. £122m investment promising 130 new jobs. Refinery will process NdPr oxide RE concentrate from the Ngualla mine in Tanzania on a 250 year lease, so supply the RE magnets industry. See this link:

https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/130-jobs-peak-earth-refinery-20697740

Peak MD says it will be a major step in becoming a major integrated supplier outside China.
Here's a telling quotation from him: "The project also has strong government backing and on behalf of Peak I would like to thank Homes England, Redcar and Cleveland Council and the UK Department for International Trade for their ongoing support.”
Looks like UK Govt is hedging its bets here and riding two horses at the same time?? Peak has an obvious advantage over Pensana if it has the capital to internally finance this and crack on with the build. Peak already has environmental permits and planning permission in place, so this is a worrying development for Pensana stock holders. Come on Pensana - say something!!

Tornadotony - thanks for a well-considered view on where PRE's floor SP ought to be.

Today's (26 May) trading defies logic in many ways. It was the busiest session since 21 Apr when Pensana announced its business "plan" when the session volume soared to 371 trades, 1.6M shares sold and 820K shares bought, and the open plunged 22p or 12% next day in appreciation. Today's trading is almost a mirror image of 21 Apr: 336 trades, 1.13M buy vol, 617K sell but the close is DOWN 9p, or 7% off on the open (admittedly in a news/event vacuum).

Someone here told me that micro-analysing trades is pointless - just take it that when there's an excess of buyers over sellers the SP goes up and vice versa. So on that basis we'll see a jump in tomorrow's open of something like +12% to 138p - which isn't far off your floor figure. Hooray.

Or possibly we'll just get another random SP kicking....

Interesting link to what was a Telegraph Business subscription report, claiming HMG are in secret talks over the next 3 months ahead of the G7 meeting, with non-China RE extraction countries (Australia, S Africa, Canada and others) regarding secure future supply chains. Less Common Metals plc and Mkango are mentioned - not Pensana understandably:
https://www.leaf-eu.org/chinese-stranglehold-on-rare-earths-forces-uk-to-enter-secret-talks-with-allies/

A folow-up on the Biden annoucement yesterday 'US to rely on ally countries for RE supply'. Only if he gets lucky suggests this article because extractors may get a better deal from China which is also desperate to secure future RE supply chains:
"While the Biden administration may want to rely on mineral deposits in allied nations, it will have competition from China, which is willing to pay top dollar, industry leaders said. The US government cannot assume that non-US rare earth producers will sell their materials into the US supply chain and not to China,” said Pini Althaus, CEO of privately held USA Rare. Earth, which is developing a rare earth mine. in Texas and the construction of a battery facility in North Carolina".
It seems there is a 70% shortfall in US RE supplies upto 2030, even if US domestic RE extraction is maximised.
See this link:
https://news-block.com/bidens-ev-metal-import-plan-unlikely-to-match-climate-goals-executives/

Probably China - 30% of trade volume today is AT. Buys catching up nicely now (75% of sells in last hour) and modest price recovery underway. Looks like it's going to be a record trading day. It's been far too quiet recently so I'm also feeling an RNS may be in the offing.

fk300 - agreed. For further reading:
https://kuchling.com/the-lassonde-curve-a-wild-ride/
Looks like were in the 'doldrums' in the middle of the curve.

Found the reason why there has been no 31 Mar 2021 report. Because Pensana delisted from the Australian ASX in Feb, the ASX rules for mining companies quarterly cash flow reporting no longer apply. LSE Main listing rules appear to have no quarterly capital/cash flow reporting requirements for mining companies. Shame.

Tornadotony - I've been digging around Pensana's apllication to the Automotive Transformation Fund for Saltend finance. PA announced on 29 Mar that Pensana had succeeded in getting through 1st phase to second stage, and I wondered what are these stages, when will we see the outcome and what's it worth??
The ATF process involves repeated rounds of 'Expression of Interest (EOI)' competitions. Pensana applied in the Round 7 EOI competition and ATF announced the results on 19 Mar 21, with Pensana successfully going forward to the next "full" round.
These EOI rounds are ongoing at least up to Round 11, which closes on 16 Jun (results for announcement 23 Jul).
The most recent "Full" Round ie: the one which actually awards 'real money' ATF grants took place last year on 3 Nov 2020.
The dates for the next ATF Full Round haven't been announced as far as I can find. But even if they take place as soon as possible after Round 11, the awards wouldn't be announced until Sep 10th or thereabouts at the earliest.
Assuming Pensana was successful, the best possible outcome is that ATF awards 50% of the UK capital cost - only £65M for Pensana.
September is just too late to be of any use to Pensana in its current situation - it's cash burn puts it in a crunch situation much sooner.
My feeling is that we have to see an 'in-the-bag' line of substantial finance sorted in the next few weeks before any PRE SP growth will resume.
It's also worrying me that Pensana have not released their regular 'Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow Report' for period ending 31 Mar 2021. This should by now have been an RNS and put up on the Pensana website around the start of this month.
See here for a list of Pensana reports if you want to look at the last 3 available quarterly cash burns up to 31 Dec 2020.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=pre
Refer to Section 8 Appendix 5B for the interesting figures and awkward questions. I suspect the reason why the 31Mar2021 report has not appeared is that Section 8 may be very problematic now.
However, I'm back in and Im sitting tight....

Very tight spread now after last drop - and here come the buyers at 125p.....

SP has just breached 125.5p major support line.

Thanks Trumble - oddly enough LSE PRE trades aree listing it in today's trades but with yesterday's date as a 100K buy. Wierd.

This just out from Reuters/Economic Times today. Biden wants to put US nearer the top of the EV/RE food chain and rely more on foreign extraction:
https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/auto-components/biden-looks-abroad-for-electric-vehicle-metals-in-blow-to-u-s-miners/82942009
U.S. President Joe Biden will rely on ally countries to supply the bulk of the metals needed to build electric vehicles and focus on processing them domestically into battery parts, part of a strategy designed to placate environmentalists, two administration officials with direct knowledge told Reuters.Rather than focus on permitting more U.S. mines, Biden's team is more focused on creating jobs that process minerals domestically into electric vehicle (EV) battery parts, according to the people.
Excellent news for Pensana for both lines of their planned outputs.

Just as I posted last message - ADVFN shows 100,000 PRE traded at exactly noon at 129.31 which is more than 2p over the current 127p offer so it seems to be a buy. It's actually showing as an unknown ? type (not buy or sell) but looks like a delayed trade from earlier in the day. Watch this space.

Selling outweighing buys today at over 200:1. Most trades look like small holders getting out. Guess the pressure's really on now to clean out all the day traders and opportunity investors. Wonder where this is going and who's taking all the stock? Maybe preparation for a big/institutional investor in the offing?

Paul Atherley is slated to speak on Monday 7 June at the Humber Business Week forum:
https://www.business-live.co.uk/partners/humber-business-week-highlighted-events-20666309
Guest speakers will discuss the impact a freeport will have on the region and the role it will play in supporting the economic recovery including new supply chain opportunities and the creation of high-quality local jobs. ABP’s head of policy, communications and economic development, Dafydd Williams, will be joined by bid director David Gwynne, Able UK group development director Neil Etherington, Pensana chairman Paul Atherley and KPMG managing director Lewis Atter.

flundra - not as much REs as you think. Every Tesla model from the Roadster to the Model X has been powered by 3-phase induction motors - which use no permanent magnets at all. The new Model 3 however is reported to sport a different motor which harks back to a design invented in 1838 before Tesla himself was born - the variable reluctance motor.
This does use permanent magnets, but only small, light ones on the stator, not the big heavy ones that most EV makers use on the rotor. So TESLA production in the UK would be brilliant for Pensana's future RE magnet prospects only if it's the Model 3 and all their future models are also powered by this switched reluctance motor.

If you're not interested in how PRE trading is going - look away now...
Over the last 4 days, AT trades have jumped from 25% of daily PRE volume to more 77% today. AT trades accounted for 75% of the total sell volume today. Sell/buy ratio was an interesting 36 to 1.
And the SP went precisely nowhere. The few O trades called it evens on buy-sell.
Suggests that the SP can't be gamed any more and it's just going to vegetate until Pensana deigns to release proper non-Mickey Mouse progress updates.

The_contractor - both classed as buys - the 40,000 trade actually went through at 1p above the offer price (???)

You're right nberzins, it pays to cross-check info. However the same gap in trading (11:24 to 12:35) is there in ADVFN's online trades register, separating trade number 67 from 68. Zero trades in 1 hour when the average number of trades is 14+ per hour, has a probability of 2 million to 1. So it's almost certain that there was some concerted action somwehere to stop trades going through. Is that allowed?

OK now - but there were no trades for an hour between 11:24 and 12:35 - odd....

On my limited access I'm not seeing any trading for the last hours. What's up??