Member Info for Hogsnipe

Over on ADVFN almost half of all trades are AT buys - buy:sell is 2:1.
Now I wonder what will happen when US opens up shortly

Interesting item here on China's RE feedstock shortage and how they see a big opportrunity which seems untapped, for turbines now reaching end-of-life:

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101678717/Dismantling-of-Motor-Scrap-Will-Become-A-New-Growth-Engine-amid-Slow-Increase-in-Ore-Supply/

The service life of wind turbines is usually 15-20 years. The first batch of wind turbines installed around the world in 2001 is about to be dismantled and recycled. It is expected that the scrap dismantling market will produce at least 29,000 mt of high-performance NdFeB in 2021-2025, which is equal to 11,900 mt of PrNd oxide. According to the supply and demand balance of PrNd oxide in the next five years, if the wind turbine scraps are fully utilised, it will make up for the supply shortage in the next two to three years. The recycling of permanent magnet motor scrap is mainly found in China. At present, the amount of NdFeB recovered from imported wind turbine scrap stands at 2,000 mt per month, which is equivalent to 732 mt of PrNd oxide. The recycling market for imported motor scrap is still a blue ocean with broad prospects as only a few large recyclers are planning to expand their business to this sector.

PRE SP movement is still mainly index driven/linked. I've just input the latest FTSE350 Mining index values, and it's still true that 75% of PRE SP variation is just index tracking.
Here's the latest chart:

https://imgur.com/a/QjwBjpQ

The regression equation predicts today's PRE price should be 86.0p and it's actually 87.2p - not bad. Pity there's no broker forecasts for the FTSE350 Index - all we can do is look backwards....

I missed all this, and it looks pretty significant - the National Security and Investment Act 2021 comes into force on 4 January 2022. It allows the HMG to scrutinise and intervene in certain acquisitions made by anyone, including businesses and investors, that could harm the UK’s national security. From 4 January 2022, subject to certain criteria, there is a legal onus to inform the government about acquisitions of certain entities in 17 sensitive areas of the economy (called ‘notifiable acquisitions’).
Here's a draft of the Act:
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2021/25/contents
There's a related 'Specification of Qualifying Entities' here:
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1264/made
And a general overview here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-security-and-investment-act-guidance-on-notifiable-acquisitions/national-security-and-investment-act-guidance-on-notifiable-acquisitions

First in the list 0f 17 notifiable areas is "Advanced Materials" and this has 12 Sectors.
Sector 2 - 'Metals and Alloy's - lists "all rare earth magnet metals", and specifically RE magnet metals
Sector 11 - 'Critical Materials' - lists the extraction, refinement, processing, production and end of life recovery (in single element, compound or product form) of all of the RE metals, all of the battery metals, and quite a few others to boot.
Sector 12 - 'Other Materials' - lists 'materials enabling extreme size, weight and power reduction for energy, power and propulsion sources'. (ie: RE magnets).

So it's unequivocally clear that in two months time, there will no longer be an open market for UK RE-related businesses to merge, acquire or sell-off all or some of their interests. Neither will acquisitions of UK RE companies, say by US, Canada, Australia or China, hostile or otherwise, be allowed without HMG scrutiny and approval.

I'm amazed that HMG has managed to implement top-level critical materials state controls, without even having an agreed Critical Materials Strategy.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f75a6c74b43624d99382ab6/t/618aa4726e426d31e3545375/1636476019150/Policy+Brief+-+Critical+Minerals+-+China+Research+Group.pdf
The China Research Group was set up by a group of Conservative MPs in the UK to promote debate and fresh thinking about how Britain should respond to the rise of China, so presumably seeks to influence the current government's decision-making and strategy.
The report itself is an excellent resume of where we stand today with China and rare earth metals, and the future impact on UK RE supply.
Unfortunately, its view is that there is no scope for a re-shored RE processing strategy to work in anything less than a 7 years minimum time frame. Instead it highlights what it believes should be the UK's critical minerals strategy - magnet recycling (U of Birmingham is mentioned - hello again LCM and HyproMag...) and building stronger international partnerships for materials supply. Nevertheless it does say there is a role for supporting domestic production, if Govt will support harmonisation of the stages of production in the UK and create a stable pricing environment, supported by investment grants in developing countries for low-carbon mining and ESG production capacity.
One strong message is hammered out though - the UK is seriously behind most of the rest of the world in securing resilience of critical minerals supply, and it is more at risk than most of severe bottlenecks collapsing its proposed climate control and EV programme.

See:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/966186/mkango-resources-launches-hypromag-in-germany-to-commercialise-recovery-of-rare-earths-from-scrap-966186.html
Seems Mkango/LCM/HyproMag are setting up for hydrogen recycling plant in Germany and Mkango are negotiating with Grupa Azoty PULAWY, Poland's leading chemical company to set up a rare earth metals separation plant to process the Songwe carbonate feed.

Greenland bans uranium mining, halting rare earths project
Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-bans-uranium-mining-halting-rare-earths-project-2021-11-10/

COPENHAGEN, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Greenland's parliament has passed legislation that will ban uranium mining and cease development of the Kuannersuit mine, one of the biggest rare earth deposits in the world.

TT: Something has changed in the last 3 days - I'm still tracking PRE SP versus FTSE350 Mining Index and the correlation remains pretty good. However, the index is on a tear recently, but PRE seems to be headed in the opposite direction.
Here's my chart if you want to clock the difference since Nov 8:
https://imgur.com/a/iIbou1T
I've just checked PRE daily trading since Nov 8, and it's very obvious there's considerably increased AT action, and the pattern seems to be a bunch of AT sells in the range up to 5K, knocking down the buy price, followed by buys until the price starts creeping up again, then more AT sells. I smell accumulation again.
The regression formula says that if PRE SP was correctly priced in relation to the Mining Index it would now be around 116.6p

Dumbpunter: You said "as the full article stated, they don't make comments on unpublished studies. The article was from the day before the study was released".

'Fraid you're wrong - here's the link:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/new-uk-magnet-factory-evs-should-copy-chinese-playbook-report-2021-11-05/
Strapline is Nov 5th at 10:20am - after the report was published, and the para says nothing about 'unpublished reports', ie; as I said:
"The government's Department for Business declined to comment on details of the report, only saying it continues to work with investors to build "a globally competitive electric vehicle supply chain in the UK".

See:
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/110321-recycling-could-account-for-25-of-rare-earths-market-in-10-years-mkango-ceo

"Mkango is partnering with HyProMag, a hydrogen-based rare earths magnets recycling venture which uses a technology developed by the University of Birmingham in the UK, considered a center of excellence in magnetic materials studies. The venture is partly funded by the UK government's Innovate UK scheme".

Reuters, Eric Onstad, 5 Nov states:

"The government's Department for Business declined to comment on details of the report, only saying it continues to work with investors to build "a globally competitive electric vehicle supply chain in the UK".

So there it is - BEIS is holding open all of its options at the moment ruling nothing in or out. It's probably closely working with Greta Thunberg to agree the environmental case for mining out Spurn Head's mineral sands... At least it'll help reduce sea levels a bit.

Sundrum: Since Feb 2019, India has banned private extraction of heavy mineral sands containing monazite, country-wide. VV Minerals had to close its Tamil Nadur rare earths plant and it remains locked-up today. They have a 30 year license to extract beach sand from a 40km stretch of the gulf of Mannar. As a result, VV Minerals announced in Sep 2019 it had applied for 2 licences "to extract beach sand minerals in an area covering 300 square kilometers in Kenya, and a 15 square kilometre area in Tanzania," S. Vaikundarajan (also a director on the LCM board, along with his brother Muthurajan Jagdeesan), chairman and founder of V.V. Minerals told Reuters.
PM Narendra Modi very recently announced a proposed review of the ban (about 3 weeks ago) - he's considering proposals to re-open two restricted sectors — beach sand minerals and offshore mining — for exploration by the private sector again.
Incidentally, India's nuclear program uses thorium in its reactors, and it was primarily their nuclear agency which initiated the country-wide bans, claiming widespread illegal beach sand mining. Some independent parties also filed cases alleging wrongdoing by V.V. Minerals. Vaikundarajan denies all such allegations.
I don't know how this has impinged on LCM's raw materials sourcing, but their recent report, which recommends heavy mineral sands RE extraction, implies the mineral sand market supply will soon ease.

DP: regarding stages in the ATF grant scheme - here is what the ATF themselves say:
https://apply-for-innovation-funding.service.gov.uk/competition/1018/overview
It says:
"This is an expression of interest (EoI) competition, which is the first stage in a two stage process. Your EoI application outlines your proposal and potential benefits to the UK. If your application is successful, you will be invited to progress to a full application for the ATF competition."
Pensana entered the Round 7 Expression of Interest EoI contest first stage which opened 21 Dec 2020 and successful aqpplicants were notifed after 19 Feb 2021, that they would proceed to the second stage (preparing and submitting a full aplication to the ATF). Pensana announced this in RNS Number : 7228T. They are still in this second stage.
The "apply/succeed/get grant" sequence only applies to the ATF "Feasibility Study competition "rounds which award smaller grants. They are completely separate and different to the "EOI competition" rounds which seek ATF investment funds .
The results of the ATF Feasibility Study rounds are published quickly after each competition. The results of the EoI competitions are not published at all, but their purpose is to secure ATF Investment funding.
As far as I know the Nissan/Envision AESC Sunderland Battery Gigfactory announcement on 1 Jul 2021 claimed the first ATF Investment Grant - "Today’s announcement marks the first ATF support for capital investment to accelerate the decarbonisation of transport and meet UK climate goals".

The LCM RE magnet report release today looks iffy from several perspectives.
Where is the associated backing/support/announcement from the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy?
Similarly where is Innovate UK/APC/ATF's backing & support announcement for the LCM release?
Why no COP26 tie-in?
Where has it been since May 2021?
Why does it recommend that rare earth raw materials for the magnet plant are sourced as byproducts from mineral sands, making the inputs much cheaper compared to new rare earth mines? The UK's only significant heavy mineral sands deposits are at Spurn Head (ironically not many miles from Saltend!)
Is this actually their final report of the feasibility study or some sort of interim half-way holding update?
Why then does it refer to a 'New Feasibility Study' on the last page?
LCM got 2 ATF feasibility study grants - one in Nov 2020 but the second was awarded in April 2021 to evaluate the feasibility of setting up a UK RE magnet fabrication plant.
To me , it looks like this is old news from the first (Nov2020) study, because the second study was only funded in April 2021 so is hardly likely to be reporting in May 2021....
Hard to make much sense of this at a lot of levels.

DP - see: https://texasnewstoday.com/monopoly-uk-prepares-for-production-of-rare-earth-magnets-reducing-reliance-on-china/525841/
Looks like all that's happening is govt is publishing the LCM feasibility study (today?) on UK magnet production, which the ATF funded last year giving LCM a small feasibility study grant (NB: NOT an ATF investment grant).

Here's a few of the salient points from the above link:
..................................................................................................................
A government-funded feasibility study will be released on Friday, indicating steps the UK must take to resume the output of rare earth permanent magnets, sources said. The study outlines how to build a plant by 2024 and ultimately produce strong enough magnets to supply one million EVs a year. “We aim to change the flow of transporting all of this type of manufacturing to the Far East and restore the excellence of British manufacturing,” said one source.
British rare earth company Less Common Metals is putting together a feasibility study and is considering looking for a partner to jointly build a factory, sources said.
..........................................................................................
Wonder who else is building a factory to produce RE magnet raw materials? Wonder if Pensana could use a customer with a yearly offtake of 3,500 metric tons of NdPr magnets? Wonder if HMG is going to be entirely happy for LCM to carry on importing RE magnet metal oxides from China with its excellent ESG, climate change and human rights record?

I'm hoping the announcement will be one of Boris's COP26 set-piece show-stoppers, spanning the whole EV/Wind Turbine RE magnet supply chain, from sustainable (ie: NOT Chinese/Burmese) mining all the way through to end-of-life RE metals recycling. But then I'm an optimist......

100+ pages of bedtime reading here:
https://pensana.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Pensana_AR_Final.docx.pdf

TT: with 370K buys from 15:30 today vs only 86K sells - it's definitely "hope" on Weds, not "help!"

China: here's what you want to compare:
https://imgur.com/a/Wr04oNX
One chart shows latest 6 months PRE SP data (indexed) versus LYC SP 1 Jul 2010 to 31 Dec 2010 data (indexed). Second chart shows same against LYC SP from Oct 1 2010 to 31 Mar 2011.
Both show a weak to strong negative correlation pricewise.
It's only over the last 4 or 5 weeks of PRE data that you could say some sort of related behaviour exists.

China: I downloaded LYC SP historical data from Investopaedia and had a quick look at the correlation with PRE SP - it actually turns out to be negative and not very strong. Have a look here at the chart:
https://imgur.com/a/DXpsalR
Oddly, it shows that as LYC goes up, PRE goes down and vice versa. It's hardly credible that investors are flipping their funds back and forth between the two, so I'm guessing it's because PRE is simply lagging behind LYC by about 5 months (of course PRE could even be leading LYC - who knows?) - I don't follow LYC so you might have other ideas.
If you mentally "slide" the PRE chart back so the PRE bottom coincides with the LYC bottom, then both shares display a first breakout, followed by a retrenchment (which is where PRE is today), after which LYC had a major breakout of 30+ basis points. If PRE does the same, my rough calculations give a PRE price of about 140p in 4 weeks time.

Recent news re: surge in Nd Pr prices following problems in China:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/chinas-rare-earth-prices-spike-as-power-crisis-impacts-supplies-2021-10-29
Prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, or NdPr -- two of the 17 rare earth elements that are used in NdFeB magnets -- spiked to 735 000 yuan ($115 000) a metric ton as of Thursday, the highest since November 2011, according to data from Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce. Prices have almost doubled this year.