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US is now open for business and PRE is being heavily sold through AT trades now - every trade since 14:30 is a sell. Clearly some sort of play going on?

Strong buying today boosts a trend that started when US market opened on Tues. AT trades make up about 70% of all trades today - almost every one a buy.
On no news whatsoever, I smell a bit of a short panic ahead of tomorrow's AGM don't you?

For anyone seeking relief from the incessant mudslinging here, here's a very well balanced and informative article which puts Pensana in a positive light, from the Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) site at:

https://www.cpbml.org.uk/news/rare-earths-and-fight-independence

Surpising that despite their anti-free market politics they nevertheless adopt a a critical attitude to China's role and actions in RE tech.

In-depth assessment from 'Responsible Investor' of critical metals (including RE) investment and financing here:

https://www.responsible-investor.com/critical-minerals-the-race-to-finance-responsible-mining/

They make some very positive points:
- there is a wave of investment coming to meet suuply chain problems, with demand expanding 6-fold by 2030
- corporate investors have already taken on board the significance of ESG, and the need for a solution which is not more damaging than the problem
- Drew Horn CEO of finance company 'GreenMet' says "You're going to see some of those larger institutional investors really jump in a much more substantial way and lead the market in the next 6 months to a year"
- they view that this wave of investmentment will be directed to mining projects which can demonstrate they meet ESG accreditation standards - but that there are too many standards and a common one is essential so that investors can compare "like for like" opportunities for investment.
- it is particularly important for junior miners/refiners to be able to prove ESG project management is a driving consideration and demonstrable at Board level, if they want to attract corporate investment
- the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA) is a contender for this joint ESG accreditation standard - and was recently endorsed by Kwasi Kwarteng as part of the UK's critical minerals strategy. The EU also formally recognised IRMA as the best standard for responsible mining in Nov 2021
- they conclude that raising capital would be "incredibly difficult" for any company that failed to do at least the basics on establishing mechanisms for managing ESG issues, leading to long-term challenges and difficulties.

These are all major positives for Pensana, and if there was ever a time for concerted action and development of sustainable green energy, then real investment has to materialise in the next 6 to12 months IMHO.

Anybody know why this site only lists some of the PRE RNS, not all of them?
InvestEgate lists 11 RNS since start of July for Pensana, LSE only shows 3?

Tony/China/Tdav - China NdPr oxide pricing.

We agree there is a widespread multi-nation shift outside China to secure new RE supply chains that both meet ESG targets and eliminate a dangerous critical metals global dependence on China.

China is however currently experiencing reduced RE/magnet materials demand and lower magnet scrap availability caused by their Covid pandemic/lockdowns. Despite this, claiming a need to "ensure the stability of the rare earth industry chain and supply chain", in August it increased its RE mining mining quotas by 25% and smelting/separation quotas also by 25%.

Also in March this year "the Rare Earth Regulation Office communicated with key market players regarding the prices of rare earth products, demanding that they shall not participate in market speculation" - which resulted in the price fall for RE magnet materials, possibly through forced sales of stockpiled reserves.

The Shanghai Metals Market is bearish on RE prices stating: "SMM believes that rare earth prices will continue to fall in the future".

So, IMHO there are significant conflicting plays here - increasing magnet materials quotas in the face of weak domestic demand, and directing China's own market traders to reduce international RE prices at the cost of their profits. This suggests China is seeking in the short-term to temporarily depress world RE/magnet metals market prices, flying in the face of the looming catastrophic domestic and worldwide supply chain deficit driving prices up 8% year-on-year through 2030 and beyond.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion (DYOR) that China's strategy is to freeze out nascent RE supply chain investment across the rest of the world through price manipulation, while it it has the opportunity to do this without drastically impacting its own economy or internal supply chains. It can absorb the increased quotas domestically through stockpiling to meet its target of doubling its wind power from 328GW installed 2020 to 656GW in 2025, thereby maintaining its strategic and economic dominance over the RE supply chain.

Tony - PRE site has updated the register as of 23 Aug. There are some interesting moves.
Vidacos appears to have shed nearly 2M shares, and JIM about 400K. The top 6 below ASFW have shed a total of 2.5M shares. Even allowing for the modest increases in most of the remaining 13 holders, there is still a net fall of 1.9M shares held by the top 19 outside ASFW.
I suppose it's possible that there are 3 or 4 holders just outside the top 20 who have now added these shares to hold about 0.5M each, but otherwise - what do you think is happening?

Tony - many thanks for the correction - I'd quoted the % of FSDEA holding of the top 20 holdings as of 10 Aug, and I should have used the FSDEA % of the total register after the addition of 10 Aug new shares.

Apologies for the misinformation - here's the corrected first point I made:

Most significant changes:
Angola Sovereign Wealth (FSDEA) now holds 58.2M shares, 23.69% of PRE shares in issue, following an increase of 9.98M shares on 10 Aug. In due course a further 2,351,624 shares will be issued to FSDEA bringing their total holding to 60,538,637, 24.42% of the total PRE shares which will then be in issue. This brings the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund holding within a squeak of 25% of the register, at which point significant new voting rights status would be secured.

Thanks also for the useful information on State Street/Interactive Brokers/VYNBEN/Pershing and Aurora nominee account changes - duly noted in my spreadsheet.

With the additional support from the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund (ASF), it's worth looking again at where the Register is headed:
Pensana Share Register Changes at 10 Aug 2022 from 10 Sep 2021

Most significant changes:
Angola Sovereign Wealth now holds 58.2M shares, 26.5% of total register, an increase of 9.98M shares - and significant new voting rights status acquired there..
Bank of New York (via JIM Nominees + BNY Nominees + Pershing Nominees) now down at least 1.78M less shares held jointly, with JIM nominees ditching -6.7M shares, offset by Pershing Nominees adding 4.9M.
Biggest new arrival - State Street Nominees - a new entry with 12.4M holding - anyone know more about them?
Another significant entry into the top 20 - Interactive Brokers LLC with 4.0M held.
Dropping out of the Top 2:
J & V KURTZ PTY LTD
THE BANK OF NEW YORK (NOMINEES) LIMITED
VYNBEN PTY LTD

In summary, total PRE shares in issue is now 245,579,249, of which the top 20 holders (including nominee accounts) have 219,756,370 (89.5% of the register, up from 85% in Sep 2021). Total growth in Nominee accounts holdings is up 24,691,824 shares since Sep 2021 from 120.4M to 145.1M, now representing 60% of register.

Without knowing the breakdown of private versus institutional investors within nominee accounts, it's not possible to say how PA's declared ambition to drive out small PRE private investors ('speculators') in favour of large institutional holdings is progressing.
My opinion (DYOR) is that the steady downward SP price pressure for the past few months has suited PA's ambition, but daily trading volumes have now reached derisory "drought" levels, so to me, it looks very much like private investors are now simply waiting, thank you very much, for payday.

PA's amazing circus act riding two horses simultaneously continues.

As well as running Pensana, he's a director of ALKEMY CAPITAL INVESTMENTS PLC founded Jan 2021, which wholly owns Tees Valley Lithium (“TVL”), his project to create a UK supply chain for battery grade lithium hydroxide. Currently China controls 90% of the world's lithium hydroxide supply. Sam Quinn is Alkemy's company secretary and both are also Directors of Tees Valley Lithium Ltd (founded Feb this year).

The Daily Telegraph (Business) carries a story today, "Australia Lithium Site Boost for EV Industry", which sets out PA's plans to build a lithium concentrator refinery at Port Helland, Western Australia, to raise the feedstock concentration of lithium to 40% so that a much lighter/richer lithium concentrate (minus the 95% waste associated with the mined ore) can be shipped to Europe - and to his £288m Tees Valley Lithium Ltd refinery on Teesside. Here's a link to the news item for non-subscribers:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-08-09/Alkemy-to-build-Australia-s-first-lithium-sulphate-plant.html

According to Howard Mustoe, the Telegraph's correspondent, 'Tees Valley is building its plant at the Teesside Freeport near to BritishVolt's planned car battery factory in Blyth (Northumberland), and another factory being built to supply Nissan, near its Sunderland plant'.

You've got to admire PA's sheer chutzpah to take on simultaneously two ground-up, tech-intensive, UK firsts, bootstrapped on a shoe-string, and jointly looking for half a billion risk finance - right now in the teeth of an imminent worldwide recession and galloping inflation.

China: many thanks for the update link. Makes interesting reading with Paul Atherley's reply to Liam Hardy's barbed response re: Kalvig's post/original FT report. PA's reply is a minor masterpiece of containment...

China: LinkedIn seems to be the source of this extract:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/per-kalvig-b3276133_rareearths-rareearthprices-rareearthminerals-activity-6901512154306924544-2icr
I've checked and can't find any other reference to any withdrawn MiMa REE report or any official Kalvig retraction and apology, just this one supposed post. Maybe fake??

Here's PA with Sky's Ian King Sky Business News on 22 Jul, talking about Pensana groundbreaking and funding. PA refers to the ATF funding received in the past tense as 'small, but helpful, a catalyst and enabling access to seek future financing by the capital markets'
Listen to the whoe podcast here:
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-ian-king-business-podcast/id1563573558
or, if you want to hear it from the horse's mouth - here's a link to the section of the podcast about the ATF funding (please click off the sound mute in the top right corner or you won't hear anything):
https://imgur.com/8jEgZWt

Conclusion? - the much-touted ATF funding announcement for Pensana Saltend last week is in fact just re-warming the previous £4M helper donation from the ATF announced months ago. So still no real funding then??

Managed to find one source that unequivocally says ATF is going to fund Pensana Saltend:

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/07/uk-to-build-second-largest-magnet-refinery-outside-of-china/

States:
"The £145m Saltend site will be financed by the government’s Automotive Transformation Fund."

Tim Worstall asks the question why isn't Pensana on a bull run following the "award of free Government money"?

https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/pensana-pre-up-only-1-on-getting-free-government-money/

He reaches the surprising conclusions that:
- the value of the rare earths market is small compared to the volume of new investment in rare earths, so prices must come down as production goes up.
- that half a dozen outfits are planning to enter the market with RE refineries which dilutes Pesana's valuation
- that the global RE market is just so small at 150,000tpa for all RE elements, it's a tiddler for investment.

Surely he's missing the blindingly obvious reason for PRE's lack-lustre SP - the lack of any clarity in the recent Pensana and Govt announcements that there is FRESH NEW money on the table, rather than just a re-heating of the previous announcement re: £4M ATF "helper" funding aimed to assist Pensana to secure private financing. If there is new money - why wouldn't Pensana now be making a song-and-dance about it to pull in the much-needed private/corporate investment?

Anyway, if he'd read any of the market forecasts for RE and NdPR metals and oxides, he'd know that SHORTAGES of NdFeB magnet materials supply are now imminent and forecast to be 66,000 tpa by 2030 and 206,000 tpa by 2035, with prices escalating at CAGR 3.5%. Similar supply deficits for NdPr oxide are 16,000 to 21,000 tpa by 2030 and 68,000 tpa by 2035. (The whole of Lynas Corp's total annual output is only 6,400t based on March 2022 production figures.).

NdPr magnet oxide demand is growing at 9.7% CAGR, so the total market value will increase FIVEFOLD by 2030 to $15.65Bn from the current $2.98Bn. All of that in the face of a LACK of new primary and secondary supply sources from 2022 onwards.

More than enough to keep Pensana happy I'd say - but what investors really need to know, and the real reason why the PRE SP is moribund is - where's the Saltend and Longonjo funding Paul??

Excellent Govt in-depth comments on Pensana groundbreaking with positive feedback from proper "industry experts" here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-first-magnet-refinery-given-huge-financial-boost-as-first-ever-strategy-for-supply-of-critical-minerals-published

- and putting the record straight Theo - no I'm not an employee of Pensana - or anyone. I'm 77 and a quarter you know.....

A record low of only 367 shares bought today, against 130,000 sold, and the price went up!

Two Price Monitoring Extensions today and another -4.2% drop in the SP.
So are we seeing 'capitulation' here - PI's finally giving up the will to hold on any longer with PRE and getting out after too long in FUD free-fall?
Doubt it - tiny trading volume today, vast majority of sells are AT trades, very few O sells. Most buys are O trades. Now where have I seen this before....yawn....

More likely that recent tanking global rare earths/strategic metals prices caused the SP dip/recovery. Global RE/strategic metal prices have been in free fall since June 8th (as has PRE) but now on the rebound in last day or two.
Go here: https://www.mvis-indices.com/charting and have a look at the MVIS Index for Global Rare Earths/Strategic Metals Price index and compare that to PRE chart for the last couple of weeks.

Click here MJM3:
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/pre/research-ratings?countrycode=uk&mod=quotes,quotes,quotes
Now there's a nice PRE closing quotation!