Member Info for Hogsnipe

PRE up 9.2% since Mar 3 - FTSE 350 Mining Index up 8.3% - need I lhammer home what drives the PRE price in the absence of any clues/help/management from the PRE Board???

Regular posters will know my view that the SP for this junior miner is driven by the market makers referencing the FTSE 350 Mining Index. If we're not seeing any news at all from PRE, neither are they, so the MM's just take their lead from the FTSE 350 Index to set the opening SP (IMHO).

Well, the Index is down a mere 50% on the high 4 months ago. Not only that - it's dropped 35% since Feb 18/Ukraine
See the chart here: https://imgur.com/a/g5MhzzW

So there's a much simpler reason PRE has tanked - ramping/deramping talk is mostly hot air here.

Good news - the index has turned upwards in the last few days, so we should see an improvment in the SP soon.

I see the appointment of Virginia Skroski (who by the way is Head of Investor Relations - not just institutional investors) as a positive step towards decent shareholder information and expectation management.

Dumbpunter wide of the mark as usual:
Russia's Rosatom Plans to Launch Lithium Mines in Siberia ...
https://www.e-mj.com › breaking-news › russias-rosato...
5 Aug 2021 — In Irkutsk Oblast, vast lithium reserves are concentrated in brines in what is known as the Siberian Platform — a geological formation providing ...

A few points re: RE metals and Ukraine crisis and where PRE is headed:
- Russia is weak on semiconductor chip production, because it only has mid-range fabrication tech. If it chooses to strangle supplies of critical metals to the west, we are very well placed to cut off its supplies of latest-generation chips - essential for modern weapons tech, so they will rapidly fall behind in the new arms race about to start
- Ukraine has large deposits of critical metal ores, but then so does Russia itself. Unless it breaks out to invade Estonia as well and steal the only European RE metals refining plant, they will remain subservient to the Chinese for any future market revenue. As China has already taught Russia - subservient beggars can't be choosers when it comes to oil and gas sales and prices - same on RE ores.
- financial sanctions against Russia are rapidly pushing it to default and bankruptcy - their last refuge is the mountain of gold they have stashed away for a rainy day - anything up to 400 metric tons. A huge fire-sale of gold at this stage wouldn't be much help, because if this is their last-ditch way to keep the shop open, the gold price will drop like a stone when they are forced to sell. Goldbugs beware.....
- I agree the forward picture for PRE still looks very robust - the West is now inevitably going to spend huge amounts on military defence upgrades, cut its dependence on on unreliable/unfriendly non-European/Western supply chains, and make real efforts to reverse the slow encroachment of China world-wide economic domination of developing countries - especially in Africa.
- PRE could well be now at, or near, the bottom of the Lassonde Curve "doldrums"period of mining enterprise development. The departure of disheartened private investors who were hoping for a quick buck seems to my mind to be entirely expected at this point, but like Tony I see no signs that the rump of LT investors are really that much bothered.

Finally, if people believe the utter rubbish recently posted here that PRE is a monumental scam, headed up by a bunch of fraudsters intent on staging an extremely complex financial fake operation for no apparent return - frankly the stock market is not the place for them - they should be writing conspiracy theory thrillers.

Meanwhile - we just sit tight.

If you look here you'll see a complete map of Humber Freeport and its Tax Zones:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1028759/Hull_East_Tax_Site.pdf
(NB - it's a vast PDF map, so unless your device is fast, don't bother - takes ages to dwonload and move about the map - try here instead for a localised image:
https://imgur.com/a/B3SNfaS
This shows the current Pensana Reedmere development site, but significantly to the North - almost the whole area on the other side of the road (gym, sports & social club, rugby club, other buildings) is now inside a recently-added Humber Freeport Tax Zone/Development area. Only the Dance school remains outside. Milton Villas is very close (70 metres or so) to this new zone and is surrounded on 3 sides by it.
Can't imagine that the expansion of the Saltend/Freeport site comes as any sort of surprise to the residents of Milton Villas or Hebdon or Paull.

I get occasional stuff by email from Pensana by way of their webpage News & Annoucements signup. Here's the latest on rocketing NdPr prices (email as received and stored as an image on):

https://imgur.com/3uwrHtR

You can sign up for these on their home page, near the bottom.

Sorry to interrupt the bickering, but here's an update on ATF funding.
The latest (18th!!) round closed on Wednesday, but at least the UKRI website now has a better summary of what happens after first stage approval (which Pensana passed nearly a year ago):
_______________________________________________________________________________
This Automotive Transformation Fund competition is formally delivered in partnership between APC, Innovate UK, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and Department for International Trade (DIT). The ATF will be administered utilising a portfolio approach over the life of the fund. They may also choose to prioritise projects in specific themes where the projects are deemed of strategic importance to the aims of the ATF.

The BEIS Central Grants and Loans Team will deliver the second stage of the competition process, assessment framework and contracting. The value for money that the proposed project will deliver to the UK economy will be assessed by BEIS.
Where a project is linked to overseas investment in the UK, or export of goods from the UK, DIT will:
provide reasons why an overseas business should invest in the UK
assist with sector-specific information about the UK economy
provide a way for overseas businesses to contact DIT staff in their country
APC can help by:
co-ordinating your application through all the necessary steps
providing general guidance regarding interpretation of competition rules and guidelines on an informal basis
helping your consortium to structure the bid development process
answering questions regarding whether or not your project is within scope
In securing funding from this programme, each participant receiving a grant will pay an industrial contribution to the APC operating budget. This is set at 3% of the element of the grant that is categorised as R&D, as determined during the full application with the BEIS Central Grants and Loans Team.

Your application may be re-directed to other more suitable funding opportunities. You will be notified if this is the case.
________________________________________________________________________________
Tony - next time you contact Pensana BoD or PA, could you enquire if the Pensana ATF application has in fact been "Redirected to other more suitable funding opportunities" as stated above, or is it still ongoing?

Extract from ProActive Investors SP Angel Morning View Monday this week:
____________________________________________________________________________________
Rare Earths - US bipartisan bill to restrict defence contractors from buying Chinese rare earths

Lawmakers introduced a bill to the Senate to limit the reliance of Chinese rare earths by US defence contractors. Concerns are rising over the amount of Chinese-mined/produced rare earths in the Pentagon’s purchases of military equipment such as jets and missiles. The US has just one rare earth mine and no processing capacity for the 17 critical REE metals it uses in defence and other military equipment. The bill pushes the Pentagon to ramp up rare earth stockpiles and increase its domestic processing ability. The bill also introduces the potential for trade sanctions against China’s rare earth sector.

The Pentagon has given grants to domestic rare earth processing companies including MP Materials alongside Australian producer Lynas. Funds are also available to investment vehicles for the development of REE supply outside China.

Mkango Resources*, Rainbow Rare Earths* and Pensana PLC (LSE:PRE) should become beneficiaries of this legislation as non-Chinese suppliers of rare earth concentrates and rare earth oxides.

Mkango Resources* (Mkango Resources Ltd (AIM:MKA, TSX-V:MKA, OTC:MKNGF)) in currently in the final stages of hydrometallurgical piloting for the production of REE carbonate at its Songwe Hill project in Malawi. Rainbow Rare Earths* (Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd (LSE:RBW)) are currently optimising their process flowsheets for the production of REE carbonates and REE oxides at Phalaborwa in South Africa. Rainbow is also looking to resume REE concentrate exports from its Gakara mine in Burundi along with restarting the Gakara mine when the government allows exports to resume.

Penasan plc is looking to break China’s REE stranglehold through the development of a £125m refinery at Saltend in the UK.
_____________________________________________________________________________________

The reference to availability of US grants and funds for non-US based REE supply development is significant here. The UK government needs to get cracking and act on a critical materials strategy and investment now. Otherwise we simply move from being supply captives of China to the USA. Reinforces the prospect of a Pensana US buyout substantially.

PreNut - you may well be correct about the potential for planning objections from east Hull residents. See this blog report which goes into some of the location issues raised by the 2nd planning application:
https://hedonblog.co.uk/2022/01/31/pensana-rare-earth-processing-facility-proposed-for-land-adjacent-to-paull-road/
However, the blog makes the point that the new Pensana Reedmere site lies much closer to Equinor, and mentions future magnet recycling as a reason. It also mentions the future building of a magnet metals production plant on the Reedmere site. I've not seen this highlighted anywhere else, so I've contacted the writer to ask where this info came from.

In fact the new Reedmere site is very close the the proposed Equinor Blue Hydrogen development - significant from both environmental power supply and magnet-recycling viewpoints.

Although the Reedmere site is on undeveloped agricultural land and not far from residential housing, the Freeport Tax Zone it sits in includes more adjacent agricultural land ear-marked for development directly to the north of it. The site is also close to/bordering the ABP's Humber International Enterprise Park near Paull, the Yorkshire Energy Park development near Hedon, as well as the SCP.

I think Pensana may possibly have run into unfavourable ground conditions during their geo-tech survey (the original site is partly marshland), and decided that added to its relatively poor transport access, the whole site needed a re-think.

Prenut - re: is the new site within the freeport area? Yes - it is both within the revised Humber Freeport zone map, and in November last year, the Humber freeport tax zones were extended to add the whole of the new Pensana site at Reedmere. This was well in advance of the new Pensana planning application being validated (17 Jan 2022) so maybe Baroness Northover might be earning her crust.....

Tony - I'll be very interested to hear what response you get from Pensana about the new planning application.

However, after delving into both Pensana's planning applications to E Riding Council re Saltend, it looksto me very much like the original site/plant has been totally superseded by a new plant and site proposed at Saltend Reedmere site. The original application was lodged and approved in 10 weeks by April 2021 for a plant building area of 9811s q m on a 22.7 acre site at Abadan Saltend. The new application is for the Reedmere site about 1 km to the NE of Abadan which is 37.2 acres for a plant building area of 20,000 sq m - double the original.
The new plant represents a substantial advance on the original and includes for example two solvent extraction buildings twice the size of the original design, effluent treatment and reagent and solvent storage buildings. Pensana are still holding the option for an off-site reagents storage facility of 1.1 acres leased from Saltend Chemical Park about 100 metres west of the old site at Abadan, much closer to the port facilities.

It looks to me very much like Wood have radically advanced the FEED to a point where redesign and resizing of the plant has forced relocation to a larger site. The new design also tackles many environmental factors so it should be easier to get environmental approval than the original. Also - I could find no references to magnet production or recycling at any stage or on any drawing for the Reedmere site planning application.

This will get you to the new planning application:
https://newplanningaccess.eastriding.gov.uk/newplanningaccess/applicationDetails.do?keyVal=R4IWELBJHDC00&activeTab=summary
and this to the original:
https://newplanningaccess.eastriding.gov.uk/newplanningaccess/applicationDetails.do?keyVal=QMXKUXBJICX00&activeTab=summary

Two positive outcomes - firstly, Wood Group look like they are nearing completion of the FEED (which is prettty important to generate some financing action), secondly that the original planning application only took about 10 weeks to get to final approval, so the new one should be cleared in around 3 months or so with a following wind.

Mumbles2021, Prenut - there are some interesting developments in the PRE register since 1 Jul 2021 and how it looks today.
- 6 of the original Top 20 holders in Jul 2021 (total 15.9M shares) have dropped out of the top 20 completely
- the Register size has increased from 216.2M to 235.6M by 19.5M shares
- totals in Nominee accounts rose from 104.5M to 144.1M an increase of 39.6M
- there are 6 new nominee accounts, and 1 nominee account has gone since Jul 1 2021

As of today 14 of the top 20 holders are nominee accounts, accounting for 77% of the top 20 total holdings (excluding Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund shares).

In the last 6 weeks the 3 most active nominee accounts have added 18.1M shares - that's about 46% of the total increase in nominee account holdings over the last 7 months. The most active nominee is a new one - State Street Nominees Ltd - who added 12.4M shares during the last 6 weeks, followed by Pershing (4.4M added) and HSBC Global Custody UK (1.4M added).

Only 3 nominee accounts reduced their PRE volume in the last 6 weeks - by 1.2M in total - JIM Nominees, AURORA Nominees and Bank of New York.

You can argue till the cows come home about the nature of nominee accounts, but the fact remains that they are accumulating PRE at an accelerating rate, and that in the last 6 weeks most of the accumulation is by only 3 of them State Steet, Pershing and HSBC.
Prenut - I agree with you that Pensana may be losing out to other RE/Magnet companies. It's concerning that Mkango/LCM/Hypromag and SusHypromag in Germany have been able to maintain a positive development news flow in the last year on RE magnet hydrogen recycling and may be taking a lead in licencing proprietary technology. I know Pensana have struck some sort of agreement with Equinor on future hydrogen recycling - but what is it based on process-wise? - where is their expertise?
As late as the Pensana Nov 2021 Company Report, it was stated that geotechnical drilling and exploratory work was underway on the orginial site (I've still not forgotten that lone excavator poodling about in the long grass), now we have a completely new site and plan, apparently to cater for recycling and no comment at all from the Board.
I wonder how long it's going to take at the current cash burn rate, before Pensana runs out of funds if no further capital is forthcoming - looks like it could be at least another year of these doldrums ahead.

I reckon we're well into the Lassonde curve "individual investors lose patiencewith lack of share price growth and sell out to major investors" period.

Light trading but the pattern's monotonous - loads of AT sells till they get down to the bid price they want (seems to be 74p today) followed by lots of AT buys, pushing the bid up again, so more AT selling to screw it down again, etc etc. Helpfully gets the price ready for US opening and more nominee O accumulation.
Life gets tedious don't it?
Come on Paul - give us a tasty nibble before Christmas and lift the SP out of the doldrums - please don't tell me the larder's empty!

US announces a double-hit - lithium and light/heavy RE extraction and processing at site in Hudspeth County near El Paso Texas at the Round Top deposit:
https://www.mining.com/usa-rare-earth-to-produce-nearly-half-of-critical-minerals-in-usgs-updated-list/

Reckoned to be operational by 2023 and mining 20,000 tons a day on a site mine-to-magnet supply chain process, yielding about 250T Nd/Pr metal a year. Also producing abot 10,000T lithium carbonate per year. Good for another 100 years apparently .....

US government, under its Defense Production Act has moved RE metals supply to 'national emegency' status, recognising that, unless they get major investment into new supply chains, they have zero chance of meeting green and EV targets for the next decade.
Same report states that TESLA's production targets imply it will require ALL the world's currently produced lithium to meet them.
See here:
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/120921-feature-strategic-metals-availability-may-jeopardize-ev-targets-industry
Meanwhile the UK f**rts about wondering whther it's a good idea to flog-off our lithium to China, at the same time as starting two battery megafactory projects - British Volt and Nissan at Sunderland.
It's barely credible that the government and media can find nothing better to do with their (apparently very limited) working hours, than indulge in a mega-snot-fest about a possible party that may have happened a year ago.
We deserve better than this.

GK - lithium strikes me a a good model of where the economic future for REs is headed. China is remorselessly buying up the entire lithium supply chain wherever it is allowed to - US, Mexico, Canada, etc. It's even hunting the UK's nascent lithium industry - see Telegraph finance article here:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/06/chinese-takeover-lithium-miner-must-stopped-ministers-told/

When will we learn that China wants nothing less than world domination and supremacy?

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1240725.shtml

Expect supply of REs and prices to tighten as a result:
"The move partly aims to cement China's edge across the rare-earth upstream and downstream chains. It is expected that the new company will enforce stricter rules on the production quantity as well as the export volume of rare earths, which may also drive up prices," the manager said.

£18M inward investment in UK critical minerals extraction/processing sees Cornish Lithium funded for development by S Africa's TECHMET on 25 Nov 2021:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/25/cornish-lithium-hunt-makes-funding-breakthrough-bid-power-electric/

Report re-iterates Boris's recent announcement:
“There are some very interesting and potentially very lucrative sources of minerals such as lithium in this country, whose exploration, discovery and reuse we are encouraging - we are going to use freeports to ensure that we support them as hubs for the processing of those critical minerals here in the UK.”

See report here:
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2278595-uk-minister-urges-fresh-approach-to-metal-supply-chains
"A range of government initiatives have been launched including potential support for upstream critical mineral projects in the UK and for the development of midstream processing capacity".
And there's LCM's Ian Higgins - pushing their low-cost supply chain model again - "Prices for rare earths have risen threefold this year and this is making a lot of projects look very attractive. But we have to ask the question what could happen if prices start to go south," said Ian Higgins, managing director of rare earth alloy producer Less Common Metals. "What can we put in place today? Even if the risk of this is low the potential impact is large."

China - if it's on Wkipedia it must be true...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_China