Member Info for highflyigman

After seeing a 100k+ profit in Nex dwindle down to less than half that over the recent weeks, I decided to email IR and see when they were next going to update the market. I appreciated their lengthily response, and although not giving too much away to me, I liked the tone of what they had to say and I remain confident that at some point, they will bounce back strongly. Here is my correspondence...

Hope some find it useful in some way. C

"Good afternoon C****,

We agree that the share price performance is disappointing and frustrating. Unfortunately National Express is being traded along side 're-opening' stocks -
both domestic 're-opening stocks' and international 're-opening stocks' - so the domestics included the likes of the pub companies and leisure stocks, while the international companies include airlines, international exhibition cos and the likes of companies like Rolls Royce - where there is a need to cross borders. These companies appear to be being traded in baskets of stocks and unfortunately we appear to be tracking them despite the lack of similarity in business models with around half of our revenues being contracted.

The 're-openers' have been underperforming - partly because there's a feeling they ran up too far - but more recently reflecting concerns about rising covid cases and concerns about further lockdowns or firebreaks - with schools starting back and fears that accelerates the rise in cases further.

Our next scheduled trading update is likely to 14 October - just ahead of our Capital Markets Day on 18 October. Here our senior management team, headed by our CEO, Ignacio Garat, will talked about the strategy that will deliver sustainable growth over the next few years, together with the financial framework and outlook. We would hope that this provides a catalyst for the share price to recover, as we talk about how we transistion the business from recovery to growth.

Kind regards
Louise Richardson

On Mon, 6 Sept 2021 at 11:29, Chris Kyte wrote:
Dear IR,

As I'm sure you are aware, the current share price has been under pressure and is now markedly down compared to its travel sector piers, despite the recent positive results and comments made by the company at the end of July.

I'm a private investor with a considerable holding ( 111k shares ), and I do find the lack of communications to the market frustrating, especially with so much good work going on behind the scenes on process improvement and bid work.

The next market update currently in the financial calendar is marked as provisional, with this in mind please can you confirm when the next market update will be?

I have every faith the travel sector NEX operates in is recovering well and look forward to hearing more positive comms in the near future.

Many thanks, C.""

Sentiment towards travel is the only thing holding NEX back, I too agree we should 15% North of the current SP, minimum. Just listen back to the last results, all positive on the outlook and im looking forward to capital markets day in a few weeks where we should get a lot more colour on all matters Nex. Airlines, they are sure where I wouldn't like to be, in NEX, I'm happy with my 100k plus shareholding here, and think we will be north of £3 again in November / December. All IMHO. C

Ade1234 - £1.80 - "gut feeling" :-)
I like to invest with a thesis that gives me a little more piece of mind. Here is a link to the 2021 half year results, which aren't a nick out admittedly, however Jan - April we were still fairly well locked down, so no surprises there. There were however some gems of what is to come now things are opening up again, and as a society, we are learning to live with this aweful disease, such as;

1) Globally, June revenue was 85% of pre-pandemic
2) Patronage in the US in excess of 95% of pre-pandemic
3) A £100 million cost savings programme having a impact on the bottom line ( this really was quite impressive and it seems the new CEO has driven this )
4) Loads of new contracts in (paraphrasing) "the most active pipleline in years"
5) .... and loads more

... do yourself a favour and take 20 mins out of your day, then like me, hopefully you will rest easy in the knowledge that NEX will be back above £3 before long.

https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/60ebfb1e7245c37cc1244345

ATB, C.

180 entry. No chance.

European indexes up 10 days on the bounce for the first time in ages, many European indexes at historic highs. Europe roughly 15 x forward earnings, US 20 times so Europe looking cheap and with high levels of vaccination, I think we should see some nice movements in the next 4 to 8 weeks as capital starts to find a new home. Have a good week all. C

TBH, I thought we held up pretty well today given the travel sector took another beating. Personally, I am really positive on the outlook here and after listening to the results webcast again over the weekend, ( v sad, I hear you ) I think we will be back over £3 once we get into October and the business end of the trading year... two things that struck me from the presentation, 1) across the group, June was 85% of pre pandemic revenue and 2) although Chris Davis gave no guidance, their base case modelling was to be back at December 2019 levels this December.Throw in the 100 million cost savings programme and I think we are going to be in good shape by late Autumn.... only my opinion. GLA, C

Completely agreed @PaddyBoy1, I listened to the call and was encouraged on all fronts, sales opportunities on the go, cost reductions implemented, culture of continuous improvement now embedded in the workforce that is being measured weekly, legislative and climate related policy behind mass transit and finally the Covid situation trending in the right direction. This drop is baffling and I for one, am encouraged by trajectory here. IMHO, C.

@JG68 - after where we have been in the last 2 weeks, can we not band the term 'freefall' around! I expected us to be back to the 240's again! :-)

All the best for tomorrow all. C

im Jim Cramer style, I'm calling the bottom for Nex tomorrow am. Sharp drop first thing followed by a gradual recovery. The market is having a tantrum and needs to get over itself. Jan, 40-50k infections per day, 4k hospital admissions, similar levels of infection around at the minute, 750 hospital admissions and the market needs to get the fact that the road will be bumpy. I'm expecting 65-70% of pre pandemic passenger numbers to be reported on the 29th, which at these prices makes nex a steal especially as they have already stated that they are trading ahead of expectations. All the best Nex generation. C

Professor Tim Spector is on record saying CV cases are plateauing. Thank €uck for that. Hopefully results will get nex rerated on the 29th and we can stop getting treated like the bl@@dy airline ( who genuinely are screwed ) and get back towards £3. I've got well over 100k of these bad boys and I've had to tell the missus the holiday home has been downgraded to a tent... :( let's hope things pickup. C

sounds like some positive noises coming from government regarding life after the 19th. Should give this a lift tomorrow.

Hey Jtan, loved your contribution to the board over the last few weeks as we haven't had a technical point of view on here before, so keep the interpretations coming as it all helps. Like Culco, I got into Nex in the 1.17 to 1.50 range, so although this drop has been painful, it's all just virtual profits for now so faily relaxed for now.

My take on the price action since late May is that fundamentally, nothing has changed and we should see passenger levels at roughly 70% of pre pandemic in the next set of results. The exec have already stated they have renegotiated contracts to pay out regardless of whether the vehicle is full or otherwise, combined with acquisitions and contact wins, should give the sp a boost at the end of the month.

I think FGP report on the 8th so there should be some read through to NEX from that which will be interesting.

In summary, give it till this time next month and I think we will be back above £3 again as things are still on track IMHO.

Have a great weekend all. C

Well, we've all taken it right up the Garry Glitter again here today.... but at least catching up on the board tonight makes me think I'm not alone in thinking this drop is a bit over done.

Let's not make this board a p***ing contest between personalities hey @OWLS. Better day all, let's hope this is a steady march back to £3. Have a good week all. C

...anyway, could be worse, at least we aren't an airline. They are really scuppered for a good while yet. ATB, C

You would hope at these prices its all baked in. We were in the 230's this time last year and we were miles away from a solution back then so to be only 20 odd percent higher given all that's been achieved seems as low as it should be right now. Still, WTF do I know. C

Valiefinder, Bozi re: 11.29 post. :-).... Point taken and your probably not wrong, but let's face it, it's a bit Alan Partridge to talk shares with you mates or down the pub, and if you mention anything to the wife she'll just spent it! So at least we are just carping off to fellow investors who have common interests. All the best guys, off for a picnic with the kids. C

@David7015, to your point, I've just bought 100k via HSBC so not sure how that shows up, wouldn't be surprised if its on paper via carrier pigeon as their platform is that bad. I'm happy to buy back in after trimming a few days ago as hopefully this is near the bottom of this dip. Love all the contributions on this board, RK, Bnc, Pinot.... Great to be the right side of 30 again and thanks to all those who have far more experience than I. I definitely DMOR but enjoy the banter and contributions here. All the best and don't forget the suncream! C

being held in a range whilst orders being filled? Little pop at the end of the day? ATB, C

hey Culco, rotation into actual value like this must be coming, inflation will erode the of potential high growth stocks along with higher taxes for when they actually do start making money will push money back to value like this.