SP23 Dec 2021 21:14
As a few people have given a prediction on next years SP, I thought I would share my thoughts on where we are and where we might be. These are just personal thoughts with a high degree of speculation.
I believe that after the debacle with the CLNs and the ludicrous placing price Hemogenyx were way oversold. I think even after dilution fair value for the SP would have been around 4p. If you then take into account the scientific advances over the last year, especially with HEMO CAR-T and SAFE HEMO CAR-T I believe reasonable value as of today would place HEMO between 5-7p. That being said, for various reasons, we sit at under 2p.
So let’s look at progress. There are patents approved for CAR-T, CDX and Hu-PHEC as well as twenty months of development on CBR. Despite the pain, they are fully funded to take at least one if not two product candidates through Phase one clinical trials, in all probability CAR-T and CDX, which they now own all the IP for having concluded the licensing agreement with Eli Lilly.
It’s my understanding that Mr Walt has a twelve month contract, expiring around June 2022? It is therefore my expectation that a non dilutive funding agreement will be signed before he leaves. I also expect a positive Hu-PHEC, CDX and CBR update before then (end of Q2) as well. These alone I think will fill the gap from where we are up to a share price of 7p.
This leaves Hemo’s most valuable product candidate, CAR-T. Depending on the FDA meeting in February, I believe an IND application could be shortly after or maybe early Q2. Or it could just be approved for clinical trials if the FDA believe it’s of major clinical value. Whatever happens I think worst case scenario is for clinical trials to commence sometime in Q2. It’s only going to have 20 patients so I don’t think it will be long before we know the results. If, as I suspect, CAR-T works it’s a game changer and the inflection point Hemogenyx are seeking. It would be a minimum of a billion dollar drug. Whether Vlad takes a hundred and fifty million up front with a billion in licensing or just sells the company I have no idea, but we would be looking at a SP of 17-20p before an agreement and between 25-50+p after an agreement, in my opinion.
That being said, it has to work. I think it’s between a 15-30% probability for new drugs but I’m hoping with the humanised mice replicating the human blood stream it may be 50-50. IF it works it validates the rest of their portfolio so the upside would be mind blowing if that were the case. Personally I’d hope for a takeover sometime in Q3 or Q4. Anyway those are my thoughts, probably absolute *******s but who knows I may well be right lol.
Place your bets. GLA
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