Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
part 2
5) 5G and good VR hardware is our key co-products for cross-selling. That is why I share people's excitement when there is progress in any of them. My innermost dream is that Apple announces its headset this spring/summer. I am sure this excitement will bring positivity to the whole VR field together with a lot of money. In my opinion, this announcement alone can easily double MVR's share price. Coupled with a new app released in the Apple VR headset store, it may help us to retire earlier ;). Obviously, the chances of Apple's announcement are low and depend on many things (such as Covid and so on).
6) Releasing stats publically: I would not do it: data has its price and I don't think that MVR is not a charity. All amateur investors like us would not gain any information from the top 10 tracks or similar info. But competitors can use it to hurt MVR. I feel that technology is not rocket science, so I won't give competitors the instructions on what to do to quickly catch up.
7) I would like to get news about immersive technology progress at MVR. MVR has a whole subsidiary working on it for more than 3 years. In the AD, they talk about "a short video game/CGI
music video". I would like to see something similar to Beat Saber with live music, or a workout VR app with music. Hope MVR's option is not complete crap ;)
part 1
rikkitikki, thank you for the detailed answer. I have few comments and would be very grateful if you can comment on them too.
1) Gore theatres. Since the admission document did not say a word about theatre, I think we should forget about it, at least until the launch of the new app. As many people here said, there can be various reasons why it did not work as planned. But for now, I would really lower the expectations to zero.
2) LiveNation update. This is another sad story. The RNS about partnership says that it is 'exclusive' for live virtual reality concerts. The scary thing is the following. Fact #1: MVR is a specialist in VR but there are many companies which develop solutions for 'conventional' 2D streaming. Fact #2: there were a few concerts in VR (Tom Greenan, Rattlesnakes) but the last one -- Liam Gallaher -- is in 2D, and silence after that. Fact #3: section 2.7 in AD says "On 13 November 2020, Frank Carter and the Rattlesnakes performed at the O2 Academy Brixton, with a series of further artist performances scheduled during the weeks leading up to Christmas 2020, all of which will be live-streamed on the Company’s platform." The important part is "further artist performances" -- plural. There was only one performance -- LG. Fact #4: Live Nation acquires a stake in Veeps -- a competitor platform, specializing in 2D streaming. The conclusion is not in favor of MVR, I think.
3) Yes, we left with Napster. I read the situation is that Directors/Inversotors decided to put all eggs in two baskets: 1) PaaS for music streaming, 2) normal music streaming incentivized with video content tailored for a particular fan group. Both are risky. PaaS is risky because of the low-margin market that is full of competitors (although the market is growing). The app is very risky because the technology is not rocket science and large players (e.g. Spotify, Apple) can easily do it -- they all have money. In my opinion, the plan of directors is to innovate BEFORE the large players and get a high reward. But as I said before, it is risky and the market currently thinks that the risk/reward ratio is bad.
4) 6-month free trial. In my opinion, no way -- this will kill MVR. They don't have so much money. Yes, it is a gib question what they would be able to offer to offset similar offers from large players. AD says they would target early adopters, so I guess the plan is to attract people by innovative service (here is where VR should work).
Recently, people here complain a lot about the lack of news from MVR. I wonder what type of news you are waiting for given the 9-month plan for releasing the new app specified in AD?
After reading AD, it was clear to me that it is unlikely that MVR will continue releasing new shows as it was before. The reason is that MVR is going to 'sunset' the MVR brand and replace it with Napster. This does not mean that they are not recording new shows at the moment! Indeed, according to AD, there will be a short period before the app launch with a lot of announcements/events/concerts.
Personally, I expect an RNS about appointing Lanse Davis as a director and another RNS about the new share issue. However, the latter is likely to be delayed until after the new app launch as the market currently does not offer a good price. What RNS do you expect?
Hi MG, I think the question if Covid was an enchanter for the theatre subscription or not is a really important question. I guess the MVR's problem is that they did design the product in a way that a show can be monetized by the online streaming only. However, due to Covid, the spectators were prohibited, lowering the profitability of the performance below break even level. This explains why Broadway fired people rather than moving all their performances online. Unfortunately, at the moment, nobody wants to pay the same price for an online show as for a real one.
Hopefully, vaccines will do their jobs and let's say in summer we can have at least partial occupancy in a venue. So, after the current covid wave is over (probably in April), I expect some people to be vaccinated (e.g. 5-15% in developed countries). This may restart the concerts as some spectators would be able to safely go a show. I speculate that at the moment many companies are developing live streaming solutions. As a result, when concerts will come back, I expect a boom in live streaming (e.g. many streamed shows of A-list musicians). Hopefully, the BoD understands this and prepares to participate.
mel, what are the "great news regarding’Powered by Napster’"? sorry, but I missed your point
Guys, somebody here was suggesting that we now have a special relationship with Davis Capital Partners (DCP). However, I just discovered that they sold our shares!
Let's see, in the placement on 23 March, DCP subscribed for 183m shares. On top of that, they got 65m shares from the August fundraising. In total, they should have 183m + 65m = 248m shares. But the company website only lists 220m! Are we in trouble?
Hi bonker, thank you for your answer.
I would be very grateful if you give more details. Where did you find the info about "four accounts @ 2.9% each"?
Yeah, there are some signs that a large shareholder is selling now (or it is a postponed sell from the suspension period).
1) There is some mystery with Ross Creek Capital Management (RCCM). There was an RNS on 16 April saying that RCCM owns 70m shares. However, the MVR investor information website does not list RCCM in the list of shareholders. Thoughts?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EVRH/holdings-in-company-ddcwfecovj3iyg4.html
https://melodyvr.group/
2) The MVR investor information website lists Hargreaves Lansdown and Interactive Investor. Did their funds decide to participate in the placement(s) or does it just show that small investors bought a lot of shares through these platforms? In any case, I find it strange that there is no RNS about the increase of holdings of these companies. Thoughts?
3) At some point before, I've already tried to raise a discussion of the fact that it was not disclosed who participated in the last placement on 25 Aug. In August, MVR placed 335m new shares of which only for 114m we know an acquirer: Grant Dollens grabbed 20m, Davis Capital -- 65m, and Schroder increased its holding by 29m. Do you know where the rest -- 220m -- of new shares went?
4) Does anybody follow how JG is doing? As theatres are closed, I would say that he now has tremendous financial losses (this is just my guess, please feel free to correct me). Could he be selling to get some cash?
Thanks for your input, Italian.
I converged to $50m the following way:
1) in 2021, starting from May, MVR is going to spend $10m on marketing as per AD. Thus, their yearly marketing spendings are about $17m. I expect they will continue to spend on marketing in 2022 at the same pace as that year is when they want to achieve growth in the number of paying customers.
2) Just MVR spends about $15m in operation costs yearly. I understand that they are going to merge operations. So, conservatively let's say $18m per year for the whole united company.
3) MVR is to repay $25m + $4.16m interest in August 2022 to Davis Partners.
As a result, I think raising $50m is reasonable. It would be good to know what others think.
Sorry for the frequent posting but a few more thoughts.
AD, page 50:
"There is no guarantee that the Enlarged Group will maintain its quotation on AIM
The Enlarged Group cannot assure investors that the Enlarged Group will always retain a quotation
on AIM. If the Enlarged Group fails to do so, certain investors may decide to sell their Ordinary
Shares, which could have an adverse impact on the share price. Additionally, if in the future the
Enlarged Group decides to obtain a listing on another exchange, in addition to AIM or as an
alternative, this may affect the liquidity of the Ordinary Shares traded on AIM."
Is it a common statement for an AIM-traded company or they imply something? My understanding of the AD is that additional share issue is inevitable. MVR's plan is to issue the new app to attract investors' interest and then fundraise for further marketing spendings, operational costs, and to repay the Davis Partners' loan. In my opinion, they will have to raise at least $50m which is about a third of the company's current mcap. Do you think their chances to raise funds at a better price if they go to NASDAQ?
AD, page 30:
"The initiatives to cross promote artist Tom Grennan, a MelodyVR live streamed event from O2 Academy Brixton drove a 20 per cent. increase in artist streams."
How do you understand this phrase: was an increase observed among all platforms Tom's music is available (e.g. including Spotify) or only MVR streams? I think the former as MVR does not offer Tom's concerts, isn't it? If such a substantial increase was observed on other platforms then this is a great incentive for artists to participate, the result is amazing. What do you think?
Thanks, Londondan!
Thanks, Stu. Can anybody else confirm that we are on Quest 2? If so, then somehow it is not mentioned on the Oculus app webpage:
https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/2617356444966011/?locale=en_GB
Am I missing something?
https://variety.com/2021/music/news/alibaba-xiami-music-closure-tencent-netease-1234878679/amp/
"Xiami was once one of China’s most popular and taste-making music streamers, but it has fallen to the wayside since it was acquired by Alibaba in 2013. It now holding a market share of only about 1.8%, with around 11.9 million average monthly active users between May 2019 and April 2020, according to local reports.
Its closure highlights the extent to which Alibaba miscalculated its charge into the music space by failing to jump on the bandwagon of buying up music IP early, when it still had a fighting chance against its tech giant competitors."
Hmm, MVR plans to launch in China in "phase 2"... What the Xiami example indicates in your opinion?
Hi all, are we on Quest 2?
Hi bonker, the deatails of the Davis Partners 3.75p option can be found in the AD, page 27.
"In consideration for the Loan Facility, Davis Partnership, LP will receive warrants granting the ability to invest $20 million in the Company within a period of 10 years, at the Issue Price." Issue Price is 3.75p as stated on page 7.
BTW, Lansing Davis should also become a director soon: "It is a condition of the Loan Facility that the Company will use commercially reasonable efforts to install Lansing Davis as a director of the Company as soon as practicable."
Mel, Lord, thank you for your answers.
I think we agreed that at the moment, the actual number of subscribers is 408K as stated in the AD. All other metrics report "users" who are not paying customers. As a result, other metrics give little information about the prospects of the company.
Italian, the share price for JG options is determined by a formula £220m divided by the total number of shares at the moment of option exercise. As a result, the more shares are issued, the lower the effective share price JG would get. Since January 2020, the dilution was massive, so hence the drop from 15.3p to 8.8p for JG. Also, we should remember that Davis Partners have an option to buy at 3.75p for $20m that will be another source of massive dilution.
Hi lodfront, speaking of theatre, the Admission Document does not say a word about theatre. Don't you think theatre was dropped, do you?
Hi Mel, thank you for your input. I think we all agree that it is very far from 3m.
Could you please give a link to a document suggesting that Melodyvr has 325k users?