Member Info for HenryRearden

riikki just said "Sonos have no opinion about Melody. It was just a continuation deal. Nothing to do with MVR as Sonos is audio."

Seems that riikki completely ignores the fact that Sonos recently partnered with Disney Plus. Nothing interesting here as Sonos is audio (sarcasm). Is not that obvious that Sonos is now building its own service ecosystem to monetise a large client base that is "glued" to Sonos by hardware (speakers)? IMO, NAPS home live concerts fall very well into the "home entertainment with a high-quality/3D sound" set of services that Sonos builds now.

https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?sc=30800028&year=2021&no=341927

https://www.amaze.us/

Guys, I disagree with the statement that the new app has no value. In my opinion, the new app + a decent marketing campaign can easily tipple/quadruple SP. This has already happened in July 2019 when the mobile MelodyVR app was resealed: SP rose from 2.6p to 9p.
Also, I really like that the company is not doing concerts now as it is clear that this is nonprofitable IN THE ABSENCE OF REAL CONCERTS. Everybody learned this. Look at Tidal-Facebook: how many concerts they recently broadcast? The answer is 0. I hope NAPS furloughed all operators/video editors/etc to save budget for the future when real concerts would come back. And they do come back already in some places which are good news IMO:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-concert-idUSKBN2BJ0MN

Apologise, the mobile app was released in 2019 not in 2018.

If I remember correctly, when EVRH release the current MelodyVR mobile app on Android and iOS in July 2018, SP rose from ~2.8p to 9p max. However, the release of the mobile app was colocated with the announcement of the JG partnership, so it is hard to segregate their effects.
BTW, there is a similarity between the current and that situation as then before the app announcement, EVRH share was oversold as the market didn't like EVRH yearly report that was released in May 2018.

MrH_m, the rerate price depends on the share price in the next CLN conversion as that price determines the resulting dilution ratio. The share price of the next conversion depends on many factors, namely the market belief in NAPS and its current idea of the new app. I hope Equitory will step in if N&G would try to drive the SP to 1p and prevent further devastating dilution.

The current situation is that the SP was dropped to more than 3-years-low and conversion of about 25% of the total CLN deal volume was triggered. The question is what will happen next? IMO, N&G has two options, and which one they would select depends on how much and when NAPS will draw more money from them.
Option 1. N&G will continue to lower SP by selling their shares once they receive new shares issued as a result of yesterday's conversion. This can drag SP even lower than 2p and, as a result, N&G would be able to convert the next portion at an even better price. This plan requires having some notes to convert which means that NAPS needs to draw more money from N&G. Unfortunately, we don't have information about how much NAPS has drawn by now and when (and if) it will draw more. The only thing we know is that the drawing is happening in £540K tranches and each next draw should not be done more than 21 days apart from a previous draw. This only allows us to estimate the slowest drawing schedule. The CLN RNS was on 8 Feb. Assuming that 8 Feb is the date of the first draw, the slowest schedule of drawing the money is 8 Feb, 1 March, 22 March, 12 April, and so on.
This discussion brings me to Option 2. N&G will wait and accumulate notes (aka wait for NAPS to draw X% more of the total CLN volume). Then, N&G would attack SP again and convert.

If N&G goes with option 1, we will see sub 2p soon. If with option 2, I would say SP will come back to >3p short-term but will be dropped to sub 2p when N&G accumulates and decides to convert the next portion. That being said, all of these options don't include the effects of NAPS actions (such as announcements, marketing camping, and so on). If N&G knows that something is happening and that there is not enough time to accumulate enough notes to convert by that time, they won't attack SP. All above is IMO. Your thoughts are welcome as usual.

ok, this makes sense. Thank you for your answers, rikki.

rikki, while I sometimes don't agree with you on some facts (like the AppleCar terms today), I don't have problems with your posts. However, I just don't find them useful and don't see that they serve any other purpose other than spreading terror.

To me, NAPS is a high-risk-high-return share with 'all or nothing outcome'. At the moment, the decisive question for this share is 'would the new app look like it would attract new users when the app is released?" Do you agree with that? If so, what is the point of constantly saying that the company is doing something wrong? In my opinion, you either bet on the output or not. Simple.

There are people on this BB who say that SP will be 30/50/100p in 1/3/5 years. This is a very-very-very unlikely outcome(s) and I agree that these people are dreamers. However, I find 10p/share to be a reasonable SP if NAPS is able to stop users churn and show a decent revenue at the end of this year. Don't you agree?

Also, on what basis do you make your short-term SP predictions (e.g. the 2.65p and 3p predictions) below? I am asking because I have a hard time predicting the short-term SP movements now. In my opinion, SP is completely under traders' control (yes, it is highly likely that SP is manipulated which is expected for a low-volume high-risk share).

rikki, I'm excited by your efforts to reduce SP ;)
The truth is that Apple CarPlay costs a fortune...
https://www.bmw.co.uk/en/shop/ls/dp/Base_CarPlay_gb

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-09/sonos-targets-annual-revenue-growth-to-2-25-billion-by-2024

https://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple-mixed-reality-headset-2021-3803312/

Did you notice that?
18-Feb-21 09:16:15 3.08 1,250,000 Buy* 3.00 3.10 38.50k

https://www.mobergpharma.com/investors/convertible-notes-financing-agreement

rikkitikki, "No investor EVER bought more share to keep the price up, unless ramped to reach a price for warrants or similar." This is true UNLESS you introduce complex financial deals to change the motivation of market participants.
I think our case qualifies for the "similar": if you hold shares, buy shares to keep the share price higher, or get diluted. In other words, buy shares in order not to lose money. Simple.

With CLN, for existing investors, keeping the share price low means exposing themselves to a possibility of a massive dilution. In contrast, if the share price is (artificially) pumped high by the investors, N&G won't even turn the notes to equity as they would lose once the exchange is over and the share price goes back to normal. So, high price prohibits dilution.

We are smart people here. I don't see the point of the metaphor "death spiral" apart from bringing a completely wrong emotional aspect. Do you guys think if you all repeat it hundred times something would change? Why not think and RATIONALLY discuss why the directors made this move?

According to negative comments here and on Twitter, the crowd is still stupid. The crowd cannot understand the terms of the complex financial product MVR got let alone analyze how it would affect the balance on the market, motivation of its participants, and the share price. As a result, my prediction is that we will see a sharp share price drop tomorrow morning as the crowd freaks out followed by a sharp rise stemming from big purchases of (large institutional) investors.

This is my response to the "why not raise all the money in September" claim expressed by rikkitikki and others. I think the company does not need money at the moment but wants to move the share price up hence the Convertible Note offer - it will push the price higher as existing investors are motivated to provide demand for the excess of shares on the market (see my previous message for more details). The PB offer is exclusively for small investors like us -- AM shows that he actually thinks about small investors and even offers us a much better price than him, Davis, and Dollens got. I really appreciate this move. One can say that a lower price was available recently. That is true but I doubt you could make a large purchase at that time -- the price would go higher immediately. Now you can buy up to £50K!

I actually really like both RNS.

1. We all knew that there will be a placement. It is obvious if you read the Admission Document.
2. People here complained a lot about not being able to participate in placement. Here you go.
3. The Convertible Note is a really smart move. Let me explain how it works and why it is good. It deals with a problem many people mentioned on this board: the share price is destined to go lower without news but there are not going to be news until the launch of the new app. That's why many people here called this share a shorters dream. The LTH investors, including large ones, are not interested in the short-term share price. Their bet is the new app. However, it seems that MVR directors want to stop the share price from drifting lower and lower. How you would do this? For example, you can introduce buy backs. But you don't have money for them. Well... The solution is to force current investors to participate in keeping the share price high: if you don't want to be diluted by Nice & Green please buy all shares when the share price drifts lower -- and you won't be diluted. This also kind of locks large investors: if they sell a lot not only the share price would drop but also their stake would be diluted. Not sure if it is a game against Davis or somebody else. But this move definitely makes (large) investors participate more in the current share price formation and keep it high.

Given the history of Napster back in the 2000s, if Napster Group hosts Metallica's concert, then this will be a big news and great for attracting attention...

Hi rikkitikki, the Admission Document says that the marketing campaign for Napster will start in May 2021 but not when the app releases as you say. The AD also says that the campaign would include concerts but does not say when they would be announced exactly (I expect later summer to increase people's awareness about Napster just before the release of the new app). IMHO, MVR's strategy is right: ultimately, they are going to attract people with a new app. What the point to spend money on marketing the crappy RealNetworks' app? People posted here that RealNetworks' app is bad, so I don't see how it can attract new customers (currently there is a churn!). Thus, if MVR is active now, the marketing spendings would be just lost. Don't you agree?