Member Info for HelloSanDiego

"HSD, pg 9 of the AGM presentation gifts you a road map"

Thanks, I've seen it.

I wanted to make sure I hadn't misread the part that shows another year of testing for the breathalyser with it reaching the market some time in 2023, assuming there are no further delays.

The EMHP data the government published yesterday shows that the Environment Agency can already collect and analyse this data without the need for expensive equipment or hefty subscription charges.

There's data that this system can't produce, but that can be gathered in a lab. And that's without spending the enormous upfront and ongoing costs this system requires.

I still think the breathalyser offers huge potential. But the finishing line keeps getting pushed further and further away. Didn't Tuesday's presentation just add on another year of testing?

"Samples are transported to Environment Agency laboratory for quantification of the N1 gene using a process called Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction."

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021/environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-wastewater-monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-in-england-june-2021

It's the Environment Agency lab using a different process from DVRG's test. I don't think Deepverge is involved in it.

I think "whatever shall we do when the world runs out of garbage?" is a problem we can leave for another day.

I said medical service.

I also said "implicitly".

"I read that as you believed they needed a beautician to understand the results, which isn't the case"

I think it was just a misunderstanding then. I'm 90% sure it was Gerard Brandon who first suggested, in a recent video, the ability for customers to send the data to their beautician using their smartphone. That's why I thought it was a major selling point.

It's good to hear that some people have seen a benefit from it. But anecdotal evidence of the service's benefits from a few shareholders only goes part of the way to overcoming my doubts. If it's being marketed, either directly or implicitly, as a medical service I'd like to see some trial data proving it works.

David, I haven't got it completely wrong.

I know the swab is self administered at home, and I know that a person doesn't need a dermatologist to gain info about their skin's microbiome.

Here's what I'm unsure about:
- Does that info actually offer the customer any benefit?
- Are the products it recommends really any better for them?
- Would their money be better spent with a dermatologist?
- Is there any reason why the established cosmetics brands haven't been doing this for years if the info is potentially so valuable?
- L'Oreal is worth over €200bn. Why didn't they buy Integumen if there's so much potential there?

These are the questions I haven't seen answered.

By 'tried and tested' I meant conventional Fischer-Tropsch. By cutting-edge advances I meant microchannel FT, which is what VLS is concentrating on.

What I got was that people are expected to pay £25 a month for a test that gives them some details about their skin 'biome', which can then be passed to their beautician. The implication is that it will somehow make them look better.

But isn't that what dermatologists do if that's a service they actually need?

Wouldn't this customer demographic be more inclined to put the extra £25/month into designer label makeup?

Chanel lipstick, Dior foundation or some analytical data which may or may not be useful? I think I know what most people would be more inclined to pay for.

When you think of it as four Immingham-sized plants completed and operational in the UK by 2030, and another four added every year you can begin to see the scope of what they're planning.

I think this is where Velocys' innovative patents give it the edge. Tried and tested is good, but companies with cutting-edge advances have the potential to shape an industry.

Does Skin Trust Club actually offer the customer anything useful, or is that question just being swept under the rug?

I worry that its main purpose is just to distract shareholders from the unfullfilled promises we were given about the breathalyser last September.

They're some impressive figures when you consider the country consumes 15bn litres of jet fuel in a normal year.

Their 'low ambition' projections see the UK replacing 2.8% of that (i.e. 420m litres) with SAF by 2030, and almost twice as much by 2035. Their optimistic target is over three times that, with the best-case being 10% by 2030 and 20% by 2035. So it looks like things are going to start moving quickly now. The government actually appears to have spotted the potential this offers.

Chazzy2 - "Skin Trust Club alone justifies the market cap"

I seriously doubt that.

We heard today there have been 5000 tests performed so far. Do we know if any of those were paid subscribers or were they just free signups to try to raise interest? I'm still sceptical that people are going to pay £25/month to be told whether they have dry or oily skin. The rollout of this product/service is one of my biggest concerns about this company. If the covid testing offered the potential we've been told, shouldn't all efforts be focused on that instead?

expatbrat - "there are dozens of waste to energy plants in the UK which get no further than planning permission and this is with proven technology"

It looks like you're including all of those that have been granted permission in the past 18 months. So it's not really a very useful comparison, is it?

It's a misleading title and your comment reads like you agreed with it.

loosely - "a case study in the false promises of bioenergy"

I've just listened to it carefully and I have no idea how you came to that conclusion.

They don't make any mention about the promises of biofuels, let alone offer even a single example of how any of those promises are false.

For the first 15 minutes he talks about how the site was used before Red Rock or any other biofuels producer got involved . The next few minutes are complaints about the amount of money the government has put into the site in the hope of bringing jobs to that area instead of seeing them go elsewhere. He mentions that some sections of the nearby railroad are limited to 15 mph, and his only meaningful criticism of biofuels or Red Rock is that they'll be using that railway to transport the fuel they're producing.

He then goes into conspiracy theory territory, suggesting the plan is to use natural gas instead of biomass feedstock without any hint of evidence that they plan to do that, simply because their tech would allow it. That starts at 24:00 for anyone who's insterested.

The pros and cons of biofuels don't even get a mention.

Have there been any announcements or discussion about what all the new employees are actually being brought in to do?

That should give a good indication of what the company's plans are for the next few years at least.

spot7 - "either news is on the way and management are under a blackout to buy some shares for themselves (why wouldn't they?) or a funding round is on the way"

So you think they've waited a month for the price to drop 30% before announcing a fundraise? That would be a bad miscalculation on their part.

There's another possible explanation for the drop too. With the volume that's gone through in the past couple of weeks I'm betting it's shareholders who're expecting a fundraise and are selling with a view to buying back in cheaper, plus those who then panicked and sold up. The 'block listing' RNS on the 5th July triggered this. So it looks to me to be driven by shareholder sentiment at the prospect of a fundraise which might not even happen.

If they don't announce a fundraise by the end of next week, I'd say their plan was always to wait another six months with the expectation of some positive news in the meantime.

We had news. There were three positive announcements in the weeks leading up to the price drop: The White House Clear Skies Act, the first commercial SAF flight and the Natchez planning update.

But it was the day of the fourth announcement that the price began dropping. My guess is that some people have taken the recent Blocklisting announcement as an indication of an imminent fundraising.

I'm quite confident they're wrong, fwiw. But we'll see.

The recent block listing announcement on the 5th appears to be what's been pushing the price down.

Is it reasonable to expect that the company and any large potential investor could have anticipated it would have that effect?