RE: Vaccine passports16 Feb 2021 13:07
I'm doubtful a vaccine passport will become a thing. It's way to much global cost and hassle to set up something like this that will effectively only be useful or relevant for a year. Once vaccinated population numbers globally reach a critical mass, nobody will care anymore because the threat of mass deaths will be curtailed.
A far more likely outcome is that governments will issue health advices for people travelling to certain areas with high incidence of covid to get a booster before you travel, just like with yellow fever and typhoid.
It is likely international travel will be limited by destination choice and/or mandatory travel isolation periods for some time, for example it's unlikely that new zealand are going to be letting us come in for a holiday this year without isolating for two weeks when we arrive, which will put the majority of holidaymakers off the destination. Once they have a similar critical mass of vaccinated population, they and destinations like them will likely forget about this and back to normal tourist travel goes.
This is a far more realistic way to look at it in my mind.
The UK's own approach through this will inform how the timeline for the rest of the world is likely to progress. If it takes us till august to get a suitably large proportion of the population vaccinated that we don't feel the need to have international arrivals isolate anymore, that gives us an idea of how long it will take other travel destinations to reach that same proportion of vaccinated population and no longer have need for international travellers to isolate on arrival.
It's all a waiting game but any progress on travel at all is beneficial to us here so no matter what it can only be better for us.
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