RE: how much would my position be worth post merger ?3 Feb 2021 16:08
It's difficult and complicated to give you an answer really and arguably at best only an estimate can be made.
The situation is that PMO'S creditors have the choice of either taking shares or cash from the merger. If they take shares, we (existing shareholders) will represent 5% of the company. If they take cash we will represent 5.45% of the company.
The estimation part is that it is hard to say based on available information what the net value of the merged company is worth. Some are guessing £6bn, some are guessing £2bn and we can only guess this because Harbour is not a listed company so it's hard to judge the merged value.
At best this gives us a high side and a low side estimate.
My position isn't that different to yours, I have an averaged price of 24p roughly. My estimations based on the above information lead me to estimate that on the low side we should roughly expect 20 - 25p as a share price. On the high side it could be something like 27 - 35p.
It seems unlikely based on the available information that there will be a drop in price from the current trading range of the last few months (18 - 24p) which leads me to think that the most likely worst case here is that there will be no material change in the value of a PMO position now after the merger completes.
Importantly, those estimates do not take into account a change in oil price. If oil goes higher, so do the estimates of share price. My assumption is that oil price will roughly be the same by the merger completion. Again, another factor that makes it complicated to give you a concrete answer.
Those are the factors to consider and my opinion on them. Hope that helps you.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
