We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
I have followed X Factory for about 4 years - dating back to the days when it was just Escape Hunt
Its currently valued at a an 18 month low; valued at £25m which ionly 3x EBITDA.and valued at at c 1.5x forward EBITDA.
However with less than 10% of shares in public hands this companies shares are quite illiquid; the SP has been worked lower from one seller / shorter but I do not for one moment beleive that the small number of shareholders who own 90% of the company value the company so low - my guess is that they already see it having a triple digit market value. We'll find out if somebody wants to buy the company very quickly - and if that does not come in 2024 I think we are seeing the momentum change (at last)
I've read so many people's 'opinions' on this share - many very bullish and many who have let the SP performance put them off.
IMO - XP Factory is one of a number of UK listed companies that is stupidly cheap. I'd bet my last dollar that their are foreign suitors circling....
This is a potential 10 bagger in my book - I'm expecting to see double digit Net profit within 2-3 years and EBITDA to excced £20m in the same period. Combining the profitable growth and a more bullish UK market i can easily see this exceed £100m mCAP.
Good luck to all holders (although most won't be reading this as 55% with IIs, and another 35% wih private companies, 2x high net worth individuals and Hedge funds.
Here is the Link to the Richards Interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEnCMTGXRLU
And we get another formal, detailed interview this week which I am very much looking forward to .
Ofcourse the cash is being eaten up by CAPEX - That is their stated strategy.
This compnay will continue to use its increasing operating cash flow to invest back in the business - i suggest you take a listen to Richard's interview with Vox Markets.
XP generated (through operations) +£3m in 2022, +£9.5m in FY23 and i expect it to be at least £15m in 2024. It will then use this cash to invest in new venues and improve existing ones - and will maintain a cash balance of c£3m based on recent updates.
PippyLS
You are correct to point out the depreciation change - but is is both very normal and 'required' for accountants and auditors to review depriation and amortisation policy on an annual basis.
ON the other side of things, FY22 benefited from a one off +£6.2m fair value adj. So the YOY improvment in profitability is bigger than than it looks.
New Profit is a historical measure because it relies on assumptions around depreciation and valuation of assets etc. That is why most compnaies focus on EBITDA and Cash which is a good indicator of how the compnay performs in a 1 year time frame.
EBITDA more than double in 2023 amd I expect it to double again in the 12mth to March 2025 by 60-70%. And operating cashflow to show a similar growth which will allow them to grow more quickly
Questionable post in the last 24 hrs from Hitthattarget - It's very tenuous and not fabricated. They claim not to be invested, so why come onto this forum and try and post a sly, subtle, thought through de-ramp.
The Truth on Cash - XPF is cash generative and growing quickly - Cash generated from Operating activities increase by over 200% from £3.2m to £9.5m. I expect this to increase to c£15m in the next 12mth period (12mth to March 2025)
The company will then 'cut it's cloth' accordingly and invest in the business. Richard explained that they are very data driven when making investment decisions; the ROI on a refit may be higher than a new venue. It looks like the company are keen to maintain a £3m+ bank balance
Let's address the strange comments fro "Hitthetarget":
Quite ludicrous to suggest the company are massaging their numbers - ALLcompanies will make an effort to deliver / exceed their cash target towards year end. (Regardless, Dec 2023 is no longer their year End - so it was just BAU)
Their trade payables have indeed increased from £1.8m to £3.2m; an increase of 70%. This is ABSOLUTELY NORMAL and if anything slightly lower than i would expect. Their cost of sales have doubled from £8.1m to £16m. They will have 30/60 or 90 day terms so an increase in trade payables of 70% is absolutely NORMAL.
XP benefited from a reduction in Trade Recievables in 2023 by +£1.1m. This is really good news and shows they are collecting cash quicker - this wil be related to the Corporate bookings where they get a purchase order. It may also have reduced perhaps because they may have changed their payment policies and ask more groups to pay on the day.
There is NOTHING unusual about the XP cashflow - it looks normal and it looks very efficient.
Exactly Cheers1
Their RNS talks a lot about 'Operational Leverage'
In Nov/Dec they are able to significantly increase revenue without needing to signifcantly increase cost
Christmas Party season - increases footfall + Increase average stay time + Increase rate on food / group deales
Better utilisation of assets - In the winter they are well positioned to get daytime corporate events in both brands - meaning they can signifcantly increase the daily footfall
Those who have got short positions will be looking to close I imagine if they have not already
I hope they dont though - would much prefer to see them burnt when (and If) an offer comes in :-)
My holding and my average is my business
Say what you like - but I've done nothing my post facts about the company and share some broader insight as I follow them closely
You can't blame a stock exchange for this compnay's share price.
Share prices move due to supply and demand. I think it is highly relevant who holds the shares - Most of the holders of the 90-95% shares (Those with >3% and directors) have to notify the market if they buy or sell. We've seen no RNS showing any reductions in holdings since Dec 2021.
My point is that 95% of the holders and me are happy holding this share
I cannot be sure why the share price is not much higher - but looking at some of the trades in recent days, there were some big 500k blocks that looks like a short position being closed. Hence why I would say that this share has been kept low through shorting.
My opinion - Great compnay, worth far more than the SP currently suggest
If you are invested Billybamboozle (which i doubt you are) you are a very poor investor.
Nothing has changed in 12mths from an adverse perspective - the company has done everything it said it would and more; 12mths ago they would not have predicted the l4l growth to be quite as strong
So if you genuinely did invest 12mth ago - i find it very strange to see you having to post multiple messages on here quite so regularly saying how corrupt things are and suggesting other investors should stay away.
We all know your game - this forum is full of scummy posters like you
The TRUTH is, c95% shares are held with he following - Not a single share has been sold by any of these holders since the start of 2022
55% of shares are in the hands of IIs
16% with private companies
9% with Hedge Funds
14% with two large individual investors John Story (8.7% including 5% through soread bets) and Stephen Lucas (4.9%)
1.6% with current directors
These holders are going nowhere - the current SP is in no way reflective of the company's progress in the last 18mth - it's just a output of a small number of shares changing hands and shorters
You are clearly not invested
Your agenda is very clear to eveyone on this site
This is a good compnay and at a point in time in the futire I have no doubt the SP will reflect that - it could be tomorrow, next week, or next month, but it will happen
Billybamboozle
I disagree completely
When I suggested that maybe something is going on - it has nothing to do with insider information. I am very confident that the compnay have been very open and they always provide lots of granularity in their accounts. ENough that allowed me to pretty much predict their Full year results at GM / EBITDA / Cash bob on.
This is pureley speculative and for illustrative purposes...
If, you were Blackrock and wated to buy XP Factory.
Would you (a) take a 3% stake when SP is 20-30p and push the SP into the 30/40s
or
(b) take a short position and suppress the share price, tease out the weak hands and make a move when SP is much lower.
What issues does Paul Scott point out?
I perdaonlly don't see anything that worries me here
Looks like soe big short poistions revresed yesterday.
My suspicion is that there is soething going on behind the scenes which accounts for the shorts / suppressed price.
Yes, still in offer period - there is no set end date
As soon as you hit 1% you have to disclose all dealings
I dont beleive there is any exclusion on Directors - but the first RNS stated that the founders and directors were assumes, for takeover rules, to be acting in concert. They have between 25 and 29% already so any buying could require them to ake an offer for all shares if they go past 30%
XP FACTORY PLC (AIM: XPF), one of the UK's pre-eminent experiential leisure businesses operating the Escape Hunt and Boom Battle Bar brands, is pleased to announce that Richard Harpham (CEO) and Graham Bird (CFO) will provide a live presentation relating to the Group's unaudited interim Results for the year to 31 December 2023 via the Investor Meet Company platform on 26 Mar 2024 at 14:00 GMT.
The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 25 Mar 2024, 09:00 GMT, or at any time during the live presentation.
Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet XP FACTORY PLC via:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/xp-factory-plc/register-investor
Investors who already follow XP FACTORYPLC on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited.
Newboy - there's already a fair few - at least 50% sit wih IIs
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Ltd. 32,387,845 18.55 %
MFT Capital Ltd. 23,924,420 13.71 %
CRUX Asset Management Ltd. 14,458,731 8.283 %
J.O. Hambro Capital Management Ltd. 9,100,000 5.213 %
Sankofa Investment Management (Guernsey) Ltd. 4,543,194 2.603 %
Unicorn Asset Management Ltd. 2,190,834 1.255 %
Teviot Partners LLP 1,685,000 0.9653 %
Nice lunchtime shopping spree from someone....
9-Mar-24 12:06:48 15.487 241,256 Unknown* 14.50 15.00 37.36k
MikePickle
I'm sorry Mike, you won't get any advice from me. You will have to draw your own judgement.
Unless things have changed (and depending on how many shares you have), if you want to sell, I don't imagin it will be difficult. I've always been able to get 'dummy quotes' for decent volumes
I'm going nowhere personally, a decision entirely down to e and my own research and judgement.
For comparison, Hollwoood Bowl's UK central costs are £23m.
Whlst not surprised, it baffles me that people cant see the wood for the trees. The challenging market appears to have created so much scepticism, paranoia and aversion to risk.
This company is performing excellently - some of the innovative activities i see every day posted on LinkedIn blow me away. The latest is that they are taking "Boom on the Road" and going out to corporates with a game.
Too much being made of the operating loss - it's about as meaningful as Russian democracy. Its generating significant Cash, EBITDA and and growing quickly and profitably.
I'm going on record now to say that this company will get snapped up for 80p before the end of 2025.
Signed: Hedgehogarth, 19th March, 2023
I think it is dangerous to assume you know why people bought or sold
The FACTs are that over 20% of the company has seemingly changed hands
Only one new major shareholder has emerged
Cannacord are OUT
Schroders trimmed but still have plenty
No other changes by any of the other big holders
As I have said before - 1p movements in price between 5p and 15p are pretty irrelvent in the grand scheme of things - the movments are there to create some liquidity but the bulk of the shares are in the hands of those whose average is close to £2. They are already £1.90 down , so a few pence is irrelevant
ShandyPants
I dont disagree about confusing accounts - but that is accounting for you. It gets increasingly blurred and confusing
What is undeniable though is:
- this company generated +£9m cash from its current asset portfolio
- Revenue has doubled two years on the bounce
- The venues are getting more profitable - becoming more effcient and finding innovative ways to maximise capacity which is more than offsetting wage inflations
- Escape Hunt is more mature - yet it is still showing double digit L4L growth in the most recent quarters' trading
- Corporate represents a big slug of revenues; meaning that XPF is not as reliant on Consumer spending
IMO - this SP is not sustainable. Another year of progress (12mth to March 2025) which I expect the 12mth operating cashflow to increase to +£15m, EBITDA to almost double and Operating Profit to be in the £5-£10m range - will make an mCAP of £25m looks even lighter than it does now.