RE: Accumulation23 May 2024 06:09
Mr Magorium
The rate is detailed in a number of the RNS if you look back in history - it is anchored to Sonia + 1.95% to 2.5%
Robswire is a Banker type - his glass is half empty
Magpie's challenges
- Magpie took on debt to fund it's rental proposition which requires significant working capital tied up for 12 months
- This is provided by Natwest/HSBC with a RCF of up to £30m. MMAG have drawndown about half of the facility.
- Interest rates increased after taking the facility - increasing the cost of finance
- The bad debt on the Rental prop was probably worse than hoped (mostly due to macro conditions)
- The RCF has two covenants - both linked to EBITDA. Bet Debt has to be less than 2.5 times EBITDA and Interest payments need to be less than 4 times EBITDA
- This has manifested in tow challenges for MMAG;
(1) Needs to improve EBITDA (This weeks's RNS suggests they are very focussed on this)
(2) Needed to manage its net debt and drawdown to stay compliant with covenants
However the company have already shown they are able to flex and pivot to stay compliant with covenants and therfore I am 100% confident that they will not fall foul of the banks;
They have pivoted on Rental; it was a very popular with customers (based on iniitial sales numbers). Howvere, they only sell Rental to the very best quality customers from a Credit and Risk perspective. This has avoided increasing net debt and will improve the profitability of the proposition.
The rental Prop and Kiosks are not bad ideas - but both have put pressure on company at a time when the macro conditions worsened; higher interest rates, tougher consumer environment + tougher for small businesses to raise capital
The worst is behind Music Magpie now IMO; it has shown resilience and navigated one of the toughest period for small businesses in my lifetime.
The SP is valuation of a business expected to fail - If like me, you think it will NOT fail and that better times are ahead, the share price is a bargain