Member Info for hedged

Vinson - nice job buddy. Absolutely smashing it. I'll let you buy me a bier when this hits £1.

Tyla - if someone doesn't vote then its not counted.

Its exactly the same as you not voting for your MP, if you dont turn up to cast your vote then your vote isnt counted.

This definitely isn't Ocado. Ocado are way overvalued. Their P/S is around 4 whereas AO is around 1. Ocado haven't made a profit in 21 years, AO has started to make a profit.

A TR-1 is when a person or company increases their shareholding past specific regulatory thresholds.

Vinson is expected to increase his holding pass 3% which requires a regulatory announcement in the form of a TR-1.

Isnt there a Woolworths is the US or AUS. Just buy him a plan ticket.

I can see 50p in 3 months with 100p but year end.

As this is an Ocado chat I'll refrain from talking about another stock. But there is a group chat on Telegram if you are interested.

Shaggers - how are you feeling about Amigo? Vote finalised next week with a court case on the 19th. Looks set to pass both with relending early summer.

Good luck with your sub 20 investment. I hope it works out well for you.

I don't short stocks. However, everyone is predicting another crash so there will be plenty of opportunities to short across a lot of stocks.

I will personally wait for a bottom to buy in if such an event happened.

If I have to be totally honest, I would value Ocado at less than £10 easily.

In terms of methodology we cannot use DDM or DCF unless we use CFO. In terms of relative metrics we cannot use PE but P/S is still too high. It should be no higher than 1.5 but is currently closer to 4.

I agree. Excellent review.

What valuation would everyone apply to Ocado?

Just topped up. Next week will be huge.

Now hold 1,856,798.

*links (or kinks if you get off on this stuff)

Do you have any kinks that JPM are involved with refinancing their debt or are you currently speaking from conjecture?

They are using the standard valuation metrics that I and IBs use. A mix of relative valuations metrics like PE, P/S and then DDM and DCF.

In terms of valuation, I use the same approach as the equity research department's within the IBs. I use a number of valuation metrics (PE, P/S etc) as an initial gauge then use more advanced techniques to forecast outwards.

What is Simplywall valuation methodology?

I dont consider it to be overvalued.

When I do a few quick mental arithmetic on valuations compared with other similar companies. I start with basic fundamentals of revenue vs mkt cap, PE ratio, growth rates, EPS etc. Then I compare to other companies. So I would look at Ocado and think its massively overvalued. Boohoo is slightly overvalued but AO World is either fairly valued or slightly undervalued.

AO - rev 1.6bn - mkt cap 1.2bn
Boohoo - rev 1.7bn - mkt cap 4bn - PE 43.
Ocado - rev 2.3bn - mkt cap 12bn

When I start to forecast profits and look at valuation metrics such as discounted cash flow or dividend discount model I think AO World are undervalued. Their revenues are increasing by 60% currently, but like i said before, they need to translate these into profits .

JG68 - I didnt expect this sort of drop. I havent bought any dips yet but I plan to. The growth rates here are extraordinary, bigger than Boohoo, Asos, Ocado etc.

My only criticism would be the size of the profits they have made vs revenue but, and it's a big but, there are making the right noises regarding Germany and I can only see demand increase so I suspect profits will follow. However, this fall is overdone but welcomed as its providing me with an opportunity.

I only stated Carney as I haven't heard the views of Andrew Bailey on inflation and interest rates.

However, that being said, the BoE still comprises of a 9 member committee and Mark Carney expressed the views of the BoE committee rather than his personal view, of which the majority are still on the committee. Furthermore, the Governor has the deciding vote in a 4-4 outcome, not to decide the interest rate policy of the BoE himself.

I imagine the BoE committee haven't radically changed their views.

From a rates perspective, its been known that Mark Carney was in favour of when starting to increase rates would only do so in a measured manner and not 4 or 5 rates increases in a year. I'm assuming the same will be done whomever is the Governor when rates start to rise.

The only exception to this is if inflation really starts to rise. The BoE at that point will have to balance between inflation on one hand and debt defaults on the other.