Member Info for hedged

The apocalypse? The BoE have predicted a 5 quarter recession from Q4. The Fed have predicted a "slow landing" next year (or a small recession in direct terms). I stated my reasons why it these were obvious outcomes in terms of yield curves.

Why am I invested? The stock market doesn't directly follow economics. The next 3 months will see the S&P move higher as inflation falls despite recessionary fears.

Amigo is never the talk of the SE

A recession has been on the cards for the US and Europe for at least 6 months. The 2y & 10y inverted a while back and 3m & 10y spread has significantly closed.

Consumer confidence has tanked.
Consumer spending has tanked.
Mortgage approvals down 36% last month.
Inflation predicted to hit 13% in October.

The only shining light is non-farm payrolls, the US increased jobs by 500k which means the fed could increase interest rates by another 75bps.

Where are you getting info that a bigger player may invest?

Given the BoE assessment yesterday what's everyone's opinion on a forthcoming recession hitting the car industry? Car prices have risen so much over the last two years its difficult not to see defaults rise on those car loans.

Given the recent rise if there is incoming news watch out for the spike. Don't get caught buying at the top to only watch this slowly fall.

I think Red_Inky and I have something very similar in common, we were patient when others were greedy.

I managed to top slice today on a healthy profit. Patience was key.

Red_inky was the only guy to predict 4p.

Everyone is bare mad that two guys predicted such a fall yet cannot muster the courage to get mad at those who unsuccessfully ramped this stock. Why? Because a lot of people are nursing huge losses because they listened to the ramping.

If I were to bet on every horse in the race, amigo would have fallen over at the first hurdle. Guaranteed none of you are down the pub bragging about amigo to your friends.

So you've simply ignored my only prediction of 5p which I stated multiple times!!!!

2p wasn't a prediction but rather the expectation of others which is clearly stated. The language I used for my prediction and that comment is clearly different.

I appreciate its difficult to see someone call this right when the majority have got this so wrong for so long but keep up the research.

19th July at 16:40 i stated this would hit 5p but unsure about 4p and subsequently congratulating a guy who was the only one to predict 4p.

Perfect timing. In less than a month for 20% + profit. Having to top slice.

Seems extremely unlikely.

We are heading into a recession within 18 months.
There are companies down 80% who also look attractive.
Potential buyers will want to hoard cash too for the downturn.

In line with expectations

Mtel, i have something positive to say.

I'm hearing a rather large institutional investor wants to get in but only once the price is below 2.5p.

Ocados problems first started with lockdowns, as the share price rose everyone believed Ocado would maintain the online customer base and this would be the new normal. So when lockdown ended many Ocado investors didn't want to believe that people wanted more face-to-face and social interactions. Did the management anticipate reverting back to traditional shopping? Who knows.

Now, ocado are faced with far bigger challenges, namely declining budgets and supply chain issues. Ocado doesn't have the infrastructure within the supply chain to weather any issues so will be at the back of the queue regarding produce. Also, shoppers will increasingly go to either cheaper shops as budgets decline or brands they trust (like Tesco and ASDA). Ocado, again, is last on the list.

Inflation is predicted to hit 12% in the UK this year which will impact technology companies like Ocado more than most. Given the forthcoming recession with 2 years I can see the SP hitting £2.

Anyone loading up at these low prices or is everyone waiting for 2p?

Just checked myself.

It looks like the opening of shanghai is having a positive affect on vehicle production.

Any other potential reasons for the increase in the price of Rhodium?

Are they honestly suggesting this stock is worth 400p+?

The share price today, and this week, has been showing that this company looks to be resilient.

I agree on the director buys. Hopefully this is more than simply a bear market rally.

Im not entirely sure thats accurate. People have had a lot of savings which is being diminished due to inflation so things will get worse for the consumer. If you think things are bad now then it will get worse unless the Govt reduces taxes or commodity prices fall.

The question is, given this context, how resilient is Dunelm and its consumer base?

The results weren't overwhelming considering the amount of savings people had but I'm glad we beat analyst expectations.