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Riverfort sold 33m shares since 20th September, they can sell around 30m a month (or more should AST volume pick up) at current levels their entire remaining stake is worth around £500k.

AST only get money relative to the share price performance, Riverfort will pay AST less the lower the price goes, it matters not what price Riverfort sell for. Castro said they hoped the finance deal will eventually give them £1m.

At some point they will stop selling for a while and buyers will come in, it is periods like this where a trade can be made. I have no idea where the share price will go, at .10p AST is worth £3m as an example.

There is no confidence in the BOD and AST have failed its shareholders miserably, in Louis Castro we clearly have another chum of death spiral entities, just like Carver was aligned to Henderson/Darwin.

News is needed

Now down to £4m for company that has a project that Hutchinson said had a NPV of £200m and has had over £50m spent on it to date.

I did not like the tone of the conference call - you can now see why they did not want to see the whites of shareholders eyes in London.

John Buggenhagen full of optimism and energy at the shareholder event in March has now gone totally silent, has missed targets and his strategy seems to have moved.

They need to get some news out.

Once Castro took Ascent down the death spiral route the share price was always going to go down - the name Riverfort is toxic in the private investor community.

Riverfort only pay AST cash that is based on share price performance, it is not in their interest to see it go up.

Astute investors know the game and buy in during periods of exceptional share price weakness (like now) in due course there will be a spike as the Riverfort modus operandi changes.

The delay in Q3 production numbers makes you wonder if they are about to deliver the much awaited debt re-structure news as well, the share price has been moving up and it has been hard to buy, usually a good sign.

As I stated the other day, not the time to be out of MTL.

If we get that knockout deal + improving operational performance then 3p-4p is a minimum target in my view.

joebop

Whoever Topham and Lundy bought their shares from they still paid hard cash fairly recently and unless they are totally stupid would not do so if the company was going to the wall as some suggest.

I reckon Pearce and Johnson have over £1m in RGM between them, Pearce has been adding as well. They will want to see some of that money back and are probably involved in the rebuilding process.

I simply make the point that many apparent basket case stocks have recently multi-bagged, who knows if it will happen here but clearly some folks with serious dosh are betting on a recovery situation.

If the above was the case why are the shares being gobbled up by High Net Worth investors - recently Charles Richard Topham has taken 10% of the company for example.

Stephen Pearce and Paul Johnson own 22% collectively + Stephen Lundy has taken nearly 4%.

The free float is slowly being taken out for whatever reason - I am sure there is a plan, recently a few dog stocks have multi bagged.

For a number of reasons I genuinely feel this is not a time to be out of MTL shares, it has been very difficult to buy in any size for some time, I think that speaks volumes.

Just to let readers know Colin Bird will be presenting in Mayfair at Proactive on 7th November on behalf of Jubilee Metals - he is usually available for a chat afterwards re Xtract or Galileo

People need to understand that it matters not what Riverfort sell their shares for because the money they gave AST was immediately given back by AST to Riverfort and Riverfort will pay AST in monthly payments less or minus that sum dependent on the share price performance.

The above is explained in the RNS and mentioned in the recent CC, Riverfort and the market makers will want volume so Riverfort can slowly dump their holding, they do not hold stocks as investments as a norm.

The share price is now so low that Riverforts remaining shares can be dumped onto the market in orderly fashion within the limits of the agreement fairly easily as retail investors (with a longer view) start to see value and buy them.

It is clear from the CC Ascent are working on something as there were many hints in the recent CC. You could easily get a volume/share price spike which could clear Riverfort out completely.

At times like this one has to take advantage of the situation (Riverfort) and hopefully expect to see value return once news-flow appears.

In the meantime expect a procession on holdings updates from Riverfort.

DYOR etc.

According to the accounts as of 30th June circa £100k was owed to 4 directors.

If you look at the charts of the large majority of AIM stocks they all seem to lose 90% of value then spike 3/4/5 times - AST has fallen from 2p to .20p - at some point the spivs in dark glasses will make a fortune to the upside.

You have to laugh at the likes of the Proactive interviews, they bring on CEO's who have already lost shareholders a fortune and praise them if the share price has risen 10% on the day.

In my view there should have been a investor event in London, the last one held in March and the one prior to that in 2018 were both very well attended. I did not like the CC as it seemed cold and calculating, more-so as the questions were 'adjusted' my the moderator.

ORR has a $8m JV with a $1.7b valued company - their presentations show they are slap bang in a 50m ounce proven gold address - Iamgold the JV partner are going to build a $250m gold mine next door.

What is not to like here - the mystery is the £2m m/cap

A case of management not getting the message out there in concise terms.

Still cannot buy anything on-line and they are bidding hard for stock - looks like something is going on behind the scenes.

Looking at last quarters numbers the company generated $1.34m in free cash - I am hoping this may be nearer $5m this quarter, if so this will be significant.

So how do they get to this number, well the improved gold price (let us assume another $125 oz to $1425) could give them another circa $2m based on last quarters production but I am hoping for another $1m from increased production (assume another 5% on Q2 based on comments about improvements in the Biox circuit) That would take us to around $4.25m free cash

Also hope some cost cutting will come at operational level which was near $15m in Q2 - let us assume they could cut this by 5% - if so that would take us to $5m free cash in Q3

If attained this could rise to $6m or $7m in Q4 due to ever higher gold prices since end Q3 and modest production increases.

The market was bidding hard for MTL shares towards the close I do wonder if news may have leaked concerning Q3 numbers, announcements are usually checked by the Nomad and other city insiders before release.

Could next week be the turning point here, will we see numbers that will please to the upside in a few days, hopefully so - if they can add confidence about operations moving forward we could easily see the share price surge ahead from current levels.

Not long to wait.

They are bidding hard for stock in the background - either a large buy order in or have they wind of decent news next week?

Have topped up this morning - to get a placing away at a 8% discount is pretty good in current markets, no doubt some of it was forward sold - it is worth noting that quite a few juniors have doubled/trebled after funding, take EUZ or PREM as an examples

If all goes to plan this placing will quickly be forgotten - look at the market cap verses the expected £10m income stream, it is now only a matter of securing a small scale Mining License.

Bird has good connections in Zambia so this should be a formality.

At 1p a share the market cap will only be £5.5m

So the expected placing has occurred at .40p, in my view the way is now clear to add or buy into this story, Bird has subscribed and retains a 10% stake.

Remember those interviews, expected annual income to GLR will be circa £10m - even with the new issued shares the m/cap at 1p per share will only be 5.5p

MTL remains one of the few gold producers not to re-rate at all - most producers have doubled even trebled this year based on the rising gold price.

OK we have to acknowledge the debt situation and the long delay in the re-structure but I fully believe the reason for the delay is simply down to the rising gold price and improving operational performance.

The banks will not take a massive haircut or offer wonderful terms when they see the mine generating ever increasing revenues almost monthly due to the rising commodity price. I think there will be a deal but the terms may not be as good as when the gold price was $1100 oz - that is logical is it not.

My view is, even accounting for the debt position, the market value of MTL should be far higher than the current circa £20m - next year at current gold prices the company could have revenue in excess of $100m

A share price of 2p would only value MTL at £40m - there-in lies the opportunity.

Some risk yes but the rewards could be outstanding