Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Basically I have no confidence in the new BOD, I slated the old one heavily at the 1st shareholder event, they sat there and took it without redress, apart from one of them coming approaching me afterwards suggesting he had no money to buy AST shares in any size.

The 2nd shareholder event was quite something else, everyone attending was, I am quite sure, ready to go on the attack but John Buggenhagen took the floor with an overwhelming display of optimism. Concise detail on the seismic data, suggesting AST had a superb asset, we were further told not to disclose certain aspects of the presentation as it was deemed commercially sensitive? It was a far cry from the 1st event.

The ironic thing is everything JB said in February's event was repeated in the conference call in October, much of the same was repeated in the forced update in December. In other words nothing has been done since February and I think Castro's comments in the CC about a lot going on is pure clap trap.

I firmly believe that the BOD are simply hoping for a positive decision from the Slovenians, they may have skirted around a few entities concerning a merger and possibly the same about legal action but nothing firm or decisive.

The fact the BOD seem to be 'unavailable' to answer shareholder questions (even cutting social media links) does not inspire confidence, shareholders need to keep the pressure on & demand a face to face meeting via Flagstaff. Matters need to be ironed out, enough of the clap trap !!

I am going for Ruffer selling the remains of their stock and someone acquiring them - for some reason they do not do this in one go as the brokers and market makers like to make a turn on these transactions so the swap is done over a number of weeks/months and trades.

You would not get such large and continued sizable buying from retail traders - my bet therefore is a transfer, still think the minorities may get bought out, I am sure all will be revealed soon enough.

Tdaves

The debt restructure discussions may have been delayed by the rising gold price and forecasts for it to go higher still, the banks may be watching this aspect before signing off a deal, the situation is far different to when the discussions 1st started when the gold price was barely holding $1100 oz.

The future is bright and far far better than it has ever been in MTL's history, not reflected in the share price just yet, but it soon will be IMO.

Suhail

Ruffer did not declare any % moves when they went through 8% 7% 6% and below 5% in 2018 - some entities can get around the declarations, my guess is they will TR1 later this month like they did last year.

Could well be out or near out IMO.

I wonder if Ruffer are unloading and the background buyer is sitting there ready to gobble up their stock in 500k's

There has been no declaration from Ruffer since the 'less than 5%' declaration made last January so are we about to see another TR1 from them, they could well be close to out if they have been disposing across the entire year of 2019.

In 2018 they dumped over 90m in the year and only declared in January 2019, they had around 100m left

One thing that needs to made clear, according to what JB said at the shareholder event, is that ANY work on the project would need permits of one sort or another, this would have included the compressor, he added that some permits are easier to get than others.

My view is the company will be sold to someone who can take a longer view and has experience in Slovenia or Eastern Europe. I am not in the camp that AST will go to the wall as there are to many vested interests involved, what is clear is the impasse cannot last much longer, I believe shareholder pressure will see to that.

The BOD have chosen a very good time to woefully perform without redress - still some 6 months to the AGM which no doubt will be held at a ridiculous time like before.

Have they the balls to front shareholders at a shareholder event in January or February, I doubt it, maybe investors should bombard Flagstaff's Tim Thompson to get an event on, after all Castro did say they want to keep investors updated via media etc. These events have been well attended in the past and I suspect will remain so.

In the meantime, based on the new info on the whereabouts of Hutchinson and his plans perhaps this is yet another signal that AST is about to be sold or merged into a larger outfit - Hutchinson was supposed to be assisting AST's accounting needs on an interim basis was he not, doubt he will be doing this for much longer.

Getting the message out

https://twitter.com/Oilplayer2009/status/1211938846746787841?s=20

Gold strong overnight around $1525 oz with some forecasters suggesting $1700 oz is a realistic target for 2020 - great news for MTL which is still priced as a basket case despite significant operational improvement and higher production levels.

If all goes well (assuming the minorities are not bought out prior) this time next year the share price could be 7p-8p in my view

If anyone wants to find out if the Co is in a closed period the answer would be to contact the Nomad - I have in the past done this concerning other companies and they will usually respond.

For my part I believe the 'closed period' is used by many AIM directors to AVOID buying shares - Castro quite clearly said in February he would buy shares in AST - he did not, they have not been in a closed period since March.

Pressure needs to be kept up on this seemingly dormant BOD, it is interesting that JB has decided to cut off access via various social media channels - I think that says it all, in my view they are sitting there and hoping that the Slovenians will offer us some crumbs of hope, we all know that is not going to happen.

Meaningful news needs to come sooner than later.

Most retail brokers use a system called Proquote to acquire/sell shares for clients this has limits on size etc which are supposed to be universal HOWEVER some brokers have Direct Market Access outside of Proquote or may hold stock on their book via a market maker.

At the moment you cannot buy anything with HSBC (who use Proquote) so if anyone can get any at offer that is a great opportunity currently - I usually go limit order slightly above offer and this sometimes works so long it is not on larger size.

Nothing available online again right now - there has been a consistent pattern for several months now, a background buyer taking everything available, possibly followed by a few PI's looking for leftovers.

I am staggered this remains at around £25m m/cap - a company likely to produce 80,000 ounces of gold next year - the market should value MTL at £150m-£200m based on the likes of AAZ, take the debt away leaves £50m-to £100m, equates to 2.3p or 4.6p a share.

The above takes no account of further increasing production, a debt haircut or an expanded resource due to further exploration drilling.

Conclude at 1.2p this is a gift IMO, no wonder there is a large background buyer.

Again someone is mopping up anything that comes onto the market - another 500k buy - I do wonder if part of the refinance deal is to clear out the minorities - I wonder how many shares have been accumulated by possible candidates who may want to buy out the small shareholders under the radar - this can be done via setting up offshore accounts etc thus not having to declare their hand.

An offer way in excess of the current share price would need to be made for most retail holders IMO. Probably 3p-4p may be acceptable to some however.

I have been adding to my position ahead of a number of expected and upcoming news events - When I spoke to Bird in October he was very very upbeat over Zambia and I am expecting some very good drilling result news in January.

They said this in Mid November...........

'The drill rig is expected to mobilise in the coming days. Approximately 800m of drilling is planned at each locality and assay results from both properties will be reported as they come through during the next few weeks'

Apart from upcoming news the shares are oversold and have 'double bottomed' I am expecting a decent bounce, there was not much stock around late Friday - when markets get back into full swing from Jan 6th XTR could attract some decent volume IMO.

It is pretty clear many have been trading this stock over the last year, myself included, knowing when to buy the bottom is key IMO.

Always a large background buyer gobbling up any stock that comes onto the market - someone has been offloading in 150k & 250k lots over the last 4 or 5 sessions - but the stock is quickly taken.

Come on MTL let us have that refinancing news.

Interesting how Riverfort have forced another AIM company (Plutus) to requisition a General Meeting seeking the removal of the entire BOD and to insert their preferred management.

Riverfort are not happy over a 90% fall in the share price and the BOD burning the proceeds of the last placing on salaries.

One could argue that Riverfort are behind the share price fall in AST however their 30+ million share selling per month should be easily absorbed if the company was delivering regular and meaningful news flow, that would also keep outside third party shorting entities at bay who have latched onto AST.

Instead we have deadly silence and inaction, the BOD only delivering news under intense personal pressure from it's shareholders, maybe Riverfort could be a shareholder allay and assist the cause ?

At the bottom of this RNS is their motive and reasons behind the requisition at Plutus.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/plutus-powergen-plc--ppg-/rns/notice-of-gm---agm/201912130700067496W/

Gold above $1500oz seems to make a huge difference to sentiment in the sector, once again I re-iterate how MTL has not re-rated like all the other mid cap producers have. How frustrating this company sits at a mere £25m m/cap purely due to the debt restructure situation.

Bear in mind how patience paid off at AAZ, I have personally met a number of shareholders who bought in heavy below 10p a share, one is now a millionaire due to the share price rising to £2 at one point.

I fully believe MTL will be the next AAZ

Recent fall from 1.5p to current probably represents a buying opportunity or top up time IMO.

It has bounced many times from this level, does not take much to move it back up, hard to believe back in December 2017 the share price was around 4p with 350m shares issued, now there are around 450m - so no large dilution since.

Will 2020 be XTR's year, it is about time.

What a terrible year for shareholders and it looks like ending with the share price at option money, barely a £3m market cap, a LONG way from the days where Henderson profited to the tune of £10m by converting their £10m loan notes for £20m

What I find totally depressing is the complete lack of empathy or acknowledgement of failure by the current Board, no statements concerning shareholder losses or the drop from £50m market value to current. it is though it never happened.

Going back to the conference call, not one acknowledgement from the Board about the woeful share price performance, shareholders who tried to address this during the Q&A period were re-buffed.

The more I listen to Louis Castro the more I feel he is not the right person to be handed the reigns at AST, he did not impress at the shareholder event and most certainly did not impress by delivery of his first funding deal with loan shark Riverfort. No wonder he did not buy shares like he said he would in February.

With the shares at option money this is now a binary bet, one whiff of decent news and the low market value could bag many fold, early in the New Year the BOD need to deliver something material or shareholder pressure will continue.

Hopefully a better year in 2020.

I am of the opinion that someone has been accumulating for a long period of time - it makes perfect sense for some entity (possibly a existing major shareholder) to build their position on the QT and then make a bid to buy out the minorities.

If production continues to increase, say to 80k-90k ounces PA and costs reduce once long standing maintenance issues have been resolved the market cap, to peers, should be £150m -£200m verses current £25m. Get the debt re-structured then we may see a takeover attempt.