Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Y11
I'm really confused, you were a strong defender of HBR. Just like that you sold. Why. You say not luck but analysis. Do share because I'm interested given my repeated negative view on this share
Putting a rebuy range at 10p/200p is also an extreme call. Is Phil related so you got the 'heads up'.
Be nice if you can share
HC
y11.
Here is me trying to be nice to you but sadly you can't help yourself and need to act like a turd. Sad indeed.
My daily posts are really early because I'm on the other side of the world. Figured you were clever to know this but maybe above you 'pay grade'.
You have a lovely day and yep I think your correct markets will fall today and maybe you got lucky getting out of HBR.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Friday.
FTSE held gains on Thursday and HBR ended up a tad.
As I write Asia mixed but mostly down. Hefty falls in the US across the board after inflation numbers. Oil and Gold down. Gas holding. $ doing well as is £. € stable
Crypto's reversing recent gains with support at 30. If breached possible retest recent lows. Glad I don't trade this stuff.
Russia vs Ukrain. Putin playing cat and mouse wondering if US and NATO will intervene. More likely strong sanctions but now Putin has agreed with Xi to provide China with cheap gas/oil is a game changer. Chinese energy market is huge so Russia will be more than happy to be a 'prime' supplier. Remove Russian oil/gas from daily world output will impact the sector 4sure. China vs Taiwan. No moves as yet, Xi wants to get Olympics out of the way first.
Good sport this weekend. EPL have Utd vs City and Six Nations have France vs Ireland as standout games.
Today for FTSE. Could be real tough following US falls with Asia diwn. Late night 'futures' suggest more falls today. Inflation there at 7.5 was a real shock and stalled recent market gains. Fed will be more hawkish with number of rate rises for 2022 likely increased to 3/4. World will follow US lead 4sure. Bond yeilds on the up across the board. Forward spot mortgages hitting 4% in the US.
Today for HBR. Usual toss of a coin but my guess is to the downside as Friday is a 'witching' day for HBR.
The argument on BP vs HBR. I take the point that BP SP has stagnated for years, unlke Shell et al. To remember is BP legacy issues, like Deepwater Horizon that cost BP billions. This, and other issues are now history hence the solid upgrades on BP by analysts, range 480p to 600p. HBR is still stuck in a myriad of legacy issues, Tolmont being only one. How do you value HBR with these 'unknowns' plus debt, capex, etc. With BP you have clarity and solid assetts and declared increased profit. Add solid divi's and buybacks and accountability to shareholders. With HBR you get clapped out assets, smoke and mirrors on debt, divi's, FCF, etc, etc. Add that the HBR Board treats shareholders with disdain at best and is accountable only to the gang of 'lenders' that stiched up PMO shareholders in the reverse takeover (robbery).
All theory of course and all have a nice day. Don't like what I write. Don't read it. Simple.
HC
Oil. Thanks for your pleasant post.
You may be correct, and maybe there exists value in HBR but I don't see it and clearly the MM's see the risk/reward to the downside. Most remember the 'smoke and mirrors' of PMO, and for me I see HBR doing the same nonsense. The reasons for the 'merger' was to wipe out PMO shareholders, which they did, and take a huge tax credit for future right offs to benefit the 'lenders' not us.
The drop in HBR SP is dramatic, and this during a period of record Oil prices, so the question is why. BP by comparison has soared from a low base of 189p that reflected a period of carnage across all markets because of Covid. HBR came out of the 'gate' as a new venture at 420p, and has free fallen since with no indication when, or if, it will recover or reward diluted shareholders. This Board care nothing for us, their allegiance is only to the 'lenders'.
In conclusion. If I had available cash I would buy BP on any SP pullback simply because BP is a well run company and there is clarity, a good divi, and share buyback programme. Would I buy HBR with this same cash if the SP dropped to sub 200p. No. Until I see clear guidance and progress, and Boardroom honesty, their just too risky. My diluted PMO shares will continue to sit at the back of a dark drawer.
Hands up, I may be totally wrong on HBR but only time will tell. Another CMD like the last one, or negative news on Tolmont, debt, capex, etc, will put HBR in the 'toilet'.
You have a very nice day.
HC
Good morning y11.
Good to see your still around. Is it a Dumb Muppets party as Baccs was here earlier.
Anyway, apologies, I pressed the wrong button on 'weak sell'. Just for you I changed it back to 'sell' so you can go back to sleep.
You have a really lovely day and don't ask people to 'kill you'. You never know some Dumb Muppet may take you literally. We do live in strange times.
HC
Good morning Baccs me old Dumb Muppet mate. I thought you had left the planet.
Your once again getting up far too early to read my daily posts that you clearly hate. Why bother. I have asked you many times what irks you so by my daily news on world events and the markets. Pretty harmless stuff that I hope is informative.
I'm also confused because you told me you had 'filtered' me on the advice of your psychiatrist. A bit of a cowardly option but understandable given your 'obsession' with me was causing me great concern. I'm lying ok.
Anyway, as usual you have nothing to contribute about HBR, or anything else for that matter. Now I know your upset about HBR. We're all upset if we lose money but we need to be adults and understand risk/reward. This is clearly a concept you do not grasp. Your other decisions, like DARK, are also upsetting you which I fully understand but this is the risk you run if you want to be a grown up and invest in the markets.
I know you hope to make enough money from HBR, and Dark, to confirm your summer holiday at Butlins but unless something dramatic happens that appears to be a 'pipe dream' for 2022.
You have a lovely day, and do keep up the medication, and do press the 'filter' button as its much easier than getting angry with me all the time.
HC
Good morning all on this sunny Thursday morning.
FTSE did well Wednesday and HBR edged a gain. Will it continue, certainly hope so.
As I write Asia mixed but US markets ended on the up with Tech doing really well. Oil off its recent highs and below $90. Gold down a tad. Gas doing ok. $ and Euro ok but £ weak.
Crypto's still in the recovery mode. Going where no idea but I read some JPM analyst suggesting $100,000 by the end of 2022. Other analysts suggest Zero to $10,000. Basically nobody really knows so just a game of 'texas holdem' at best. Better odds.
Russia vs Ukrain. Will Putin 'pull the trigger' and invade. If he does' its clear his, and other Russian oligarchs, 'world assets' will be at risk. Super yachts and mansions in all parts of the world will be subject to 'search and seizure' laws as used in the USA. Add that billions are hidden in world banks, London being a main destination for such wealth. Better Putin stays at home. China vs Taiwan. No action just the boring Winter Olympics.
Today for the FTSE. Inflation and rate rises the drivers at present but the FTSE is still undervalued when compared to US markets so there is still upside in FTSE quality stocks. Pull back on petro's may be buying opportunity for the likes of BP. Big question is will BP et al get hit with 'super taxes'. My guess is yes as the Chancellor needs to refill the depleted UK finances. Travel stocks will do well with Boris relaxation on Covid rules. Banks also on a roll with higher margins that will lead to higher divi's. Telco's like Vod should do well with an offer of 11 billion euro's for their network in Italy. BT also doing deals to enhance the top line that should reflect in upped divi's; having an 18% 'predator sitting on the doorstep' will see changes at BT 4sure.
Today for HBR. Usual, toss of a coin. Oil prices went down but HBR followed the market up yesterday. Still 17p+ old money so hardly exciting. No reason to say it will get out of this price range. As others note, even if Tolmont came online, a big if, would it really lift the SP much. My guess is not really as most view this share as a risk/reward negative. Why pay 370p for HBR when you can buy a petro like BP for say 400p. No HBR news means no real gains/losses either up or down in the SP. Maybe only day traders can make a bit of money on HBR but risky at best.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day. Don't like what I write. Don't read it. Simple.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Wedenesday.
FTSE lost a bit on Tuesday and HBR again on the slide.
As I write Asia up following good US market gains. Oil recovered a bit as with Gold. $.£.€ all ok.
Crypto's in retreat but no idea where their going.
Russia looks to be sitting on Ukrain doorstep. Will they invade. Likely..China still playing Olympics for now. Long game for the Chinese with Taiwan and Xi has huge property problems for now.
Today for FTSE. Could see decent gains folllowing US and Asia. Inflation top of the list for world banks and UK may see another rise this month so risk to the markets. Banks plus Energy stocks doing well and travel stocks may bounce on the lifting of travel restrictions with pent up demand for summer travel
Today for HBR. No idea, usual flip of a coin. Like to say good things but why bother. Oil/gas prices record high, or up or down, makes no difference to this 'dog' share. Only good news will likely lift the SP above the 17p+ old money range. More bad news will do the SP no favours.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day. Don't like what I write. Don't read it. Simple.
HC
Hi Nightpusher
Catching up this morning and see your pleasant message. Just so your not confused, and to dismiss your suggestion that I'm lying I've copy pasted part of the Shell/Cambo story. Apologies it wasn't Bloomberg, but Reuters who wrote the piece
Shell, UK regulators revive talks on North Sea gas field development
By Ron Bousso and Dmitry Zhdannikov - LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) -
Royal Dutch Shell and British regulators have revived talks on developing the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea as the government struggles with soaring gas and power prices, company a...
20 Jan 22 17:45
Hope this helps, and its really easy to find just click on the News for HBR. LHS top second from the left. If you can open the story it goes' into great detail so I hope it helps ease your mind and any confusion you may have. I'm not really the expert but clearly the 'writers' of the story are.
Bullying. Nahh just my caustic responses to the turds and trolls who use this board to disrespect others. Boring, well that's up to the reader. As I say no need to read my stuff if it bores you.
You have a really lovely day.
HC
Hi y11-shx
I have missed your bile in recent days, off fishing and all. That said, its pleasing to see the land of Dumb Muppets still exists. given most of your fellow Muppets have long gone to hide in the Muppet swamp/canal.
Putting insults aside. Can I ask what exactly upsets you so about my early morning musings on world events, and markets, and HBR for the day ahead. I read most of this stuff hours before you awake your sorry ass, and I do try to be informative, and balanced. Are you so dumb that you actually read what you hate just so you can vent your spleen on LSE. What's really sad is that you always fail to add substance, or your reasons for 'hating' my posts, just a meaningless quip.
Anyway, if you hate my posts so much just 'filter' em. I say everyday - 'If you don't like my posts. Don't read em' - Its really as simple as that but clearly this concept is way above your 'pay grade'.
You have a really lovely day, and do 'grow a pair' if you wish to converse with me in the future.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Tuesday.
FTSE did well Monday but HBR did little.
Aa I write Asia mixed following US markets falling back at close. NAS again the main loser on big tech.
Oil dropped a tad as did Gold. Gas up. $ ok as is £ and €.
Crypto's ascent continues for no apparent reason other than it was 'oversold'. No idea best avoided.
Russia moving its forces closer to Ukrain borders so expect action within days. Macron stuck his nose in thinking he's a 'peacemaker'. Unlikely.
China Olympics a bit of a flop so far. Sure Xi wants to show the world how high tech they are with the Shenzen drone show amazing. Sure Taiwan are watching.
Today for the FTSE. Again 50/50 call but will hold until US markets open which could rise with good earnings forcast. Banks and Energy stocks plus telco's doing well with rotation away from overvalued shares. Tech still struggling.
Today for HBR. Usual toss of the coin. Uk Gov pushing for less reg's and more production is good and figure they know if Russia do invade Ukrain we will need more home based sources for energy. HBR could benefit but requires good management that it sadly lacks.
Six Nations was great but Eng loss was a slip up and as usual the Scots spoilt the party. Ireland looked really good but big game with France and the winners from this game I think will win the SN Cup. Eng cricket. What can I say.
All have a lovely day. Don't like what I write. Don't read it. Simple.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Monday morning.
FTSE ended Friday negative. HBR made a gain for the week but this on the back of rocketing Oil prices.
As I write Asia down reflects drop in US markets on Friday. Oil of highs and Gold so so. Gas on the up. $ solid and £ ok with Euro having a bounce.
Big story is China and Russia becoming 'best friends'. Taiwan really upset, and rightly nervous. This will strengthen Putin plans for annexing Ukrain but pity he went to sleep during the Opening Ceremony of the Winter Olympics. Expect Xi to up the ante with Taiwan post Olympics. Either action will see world markets 'tank' and energy prices rise.
Crypto's. Well, big surprise cryptos rocketed by 10% over the weekend. Why. No idea at all. If its 'bottom feeders' it could bite them in the ass given US is again saying it will be banned, figure at some point in 2022, and they will introduce their own 'centralised' US Crypto Currency. Basically a proper Crypto Bank Account that pays tax.
Chinese property market now in freefall. This is far far bigger than Evergrande with suggestions that if Xi fails to get in front of the problem his 'dictatorship' is in peril. Related Property Bond markets in meltdown and figure what was 75c on the $ will drop to 50c on the $ in the near future and if investors run for the exits then total losses.
Covid appears now to be 'no big deal' and even in this part of the world we're welcoming travellers. Will it backfire, no idea, time will tell.
Inflation pushing above 5% most places. Fridays US employment numbers surprised to the upside so Bond Yields again on the up and forward mortgage rates could get seriously expensive so lock in cheap deals now.
Today for the FTSE. 50/50 call but given Asia down and US futures looking iffy expect a drop till US markets open. Interest rate rises are now a given but by how much is the question. 1.5% seems a realistic 'top' by the end of 2022 but if inflation keeps rising they will get more aggressive. Result will be money leaving the markets for safer havens. Quality stocks like Banks that benefit from higher rates will do well.
Today for HBR. No real idea just the usual toss of a coin but with oil prices so high, 20% gain so far in 2022, you gotta ask why HBR is still rangebound at 17p+ old money. Look at other petro's like Shell. SP soaring and 'cascading' cash to give to shareholders in divi's and share buybacks. BP will do the same. Why, oh why, is HBR still stuck in this 'rut' whilst others are 'printing money' to kindly give to shareholders. What do we get. Phil leaving with no reason. Tolmont, an unknown, will it ever work and make money. Debt and Capex, who really knows, or cares. Divi's, no idea, seems vague at best. etc, etc.
Fairy stories of US 'predators' looking seriously at HBR and US investors 'pile into' HBR when US markets open is fanciful. No they don't, and why would they bother.
All have a nice day. Don't like my musings, don't read em. Simple
Nightpusher
I missed your comment that I misinformed on Shell talking again to UK Regulators on their withdrawal from the Cambo project, and could these talks possibly lead to them again 'taking part' in the Project. Actually, I'm not that much of an expert on such matters and I wrote only what was explained on Bloomberg. Right or wrong no idea but I don't go looking for untruths just for the fun of it.
Have a lovely day.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Friday morning.
Well Thursday was tough for the FTSE, but HBR oddly held up a bit.
As I write Asia is odd. HK up well as it reopens after Chinese New Year but rest of Asia is kinda mixed but still up. I had expected a big drop in Asia after US suffered heavy falls and Nasdaq getting a hammering and Meta (Facebook) again falling 'off a cliff'. It seems 'big Tech' has run out of steam for now and Nasdaq down 12% so far in 2022.
Oil WTI broke $90 with Russia and Ukrain issues seeing forward spot prices edging $100 sooner rather than later. $ solid as is the £. Gold up and see upside as a hedge. Gas steady but will rise. Inflation is the risk factor and now pointing to aggressive rates rises across the globe in 2022. Bond Yields on the rise and hard to argue against this after the EU indicated 'tapering' down on flooding the market with capital. End of cheap money 4sure.
Crypto's up and down like a jo jo. Best avoided unless your real clever and can day trade but I'm told the Trading Platforms on crypto's are iffy at best. Never tried so no idea.
Russia and Ukrain issues role on but little real action. China and Taiwan the same. Covid seems to be taking a back seat and most kinda ignoring it like its 'no big deal'. US daily death rates are still sky high so hard to accept this as fact. Denmark and others going 'mask free' could be a challenge. New Variant's emerging daily so 2022 could be tough.
Today for FTSE. No idea. Thought after yesterday fall we would see gains today but big falls in the US kinda killed that off. Asia doing well may mean we do get a bounce, 50/50 call at best with us waiting for the US. With interest rates looking aggressive big winners will be UK Banks. Energy companies also doing well and new UK Cap is higher than expected so maybe a 'super tax' if companies make to much money off normal people getting higher bills. Mortgages will be a big gain for the lenders who increase their margins with upped rates.
Today for HBR. No idea at all. Toss of a coin at best. Repeated ideas of US predators looking at HBR are fictional. Why buy HBR, just buy its debt and get it on the cheap if it defaults. At 350p (17p old money) why buy HBR if BP is 380p+. Makes no sense at all because the risk on HBR grows daily because there is no positive news. Shell showed what petro's can do with divi's and share buy backs. BP will do the same. Will HBR. No idea but my guess is no they will not. Until we get some positives this share is best avoided at any price because bad RNS will again see it fall.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day. If you don't like what I write don't read it. Simple.
Looking forward to the Six Nations this weekend. Fancy the French but England could surprise.
HC
Jeff
Who or what is the ••••han on Sky saying UK could become crypto centre. My mates here say Ukrain is the centre for 'mining' crypto coins because electricity is cheap to run the huge 'computer farms' needed to 'mine' the coins. Only thing I know about Ukrain is a place called Odessa that I and few mates visited to meet some 'friendly' gold diggers.
To be honest if you got in early on crypto some years ago you got very rich. As with all investments the trick is knowing when to sell. Bit like PMO and HBR.
Have a nice day.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Thursday morning.
FTSE did ok Wednesday, but yet another tough day for HBR now sitting at 16p+ old money. Phil leaving was a surprise but could indicate, or not, bad news on the horizon.
As I write Asia is mixed but US ended up at the close. Meta (Facebook) was the hot news and took a real pounding dropping 20%. Obviously changing your name did not work, kinda like PMO/HBR.
Oil on the slide and Gold down a tad. $ still king with £ doing well. Gas doing ok but UK introducing a price cap may see prices slide but Energy players like CNA et al will benefit with clear guidance on upped revenue streams.
Russia and Ukrain still quite as is China and Taiwan. Will it last. Unlikely. Worryingly Putin and Xi are meeting in the coming days to show mutual support for each other against the 'tyrants' of the world that in their eye's is the US and NATO. Bit scary if these turds back each other militarily in any annexation of either Ukrain, or Taiwan.
Crypto's again retreating to baseline support levels. If breached no idea on a bottom. Jeff, on your question as to whether I would buy crypto's. Not at present but once we get centralised Government Crypto's then the high risk factor is removed so then I'm interested. Once this happens, and it will, the present de-centralised crypto's like Bitcoin will effectively become worthless. Just an opinion, and my knowledge on crypto is limited to friends who own the stuff.
Today for the FTSE. Could see a pullback awaiting the US open. Banks doing well and telco's continue to shine. Energy companies doing well with some off their highs but still solid. BP and Shell best options with numbers coming so should be interesting. BHP merger with Glencore would be huge if the stories are even partly true.
Today for HBR. I would like to say the SP will recover a bit but there is no good reason to think that other than a 'dead cat bounce', oil price drop will not help. The news flow from this Board is abysmal and what we do get hardly stimulates investors and the SP drop suggests more bad news. Phil leaving. No Tolmont news. Divi maybe, or maybe not. Debt and Capex just smoke and mirrors, etc, etc. All present a pretty messed up company with no attempt by the Board to calm the markets. Others suggested yesterday that HBR may be a 'target' for bigger petro players. Why would any sane major petro consider this 'bag of nails' company with high debt, unknown Capex, clapped out rigs, and others that don't work, in a part of the world that has been pumped dry on risk/reward ratios by the likes of BP and Shell. Add in a Scottish Gov that thinks they own the whole of the North Sea and can regulate it to death and 'too save the world' can enforce reduction in oil/gas production that forced the likes of BP and Shell to walk away. Only way HBR will be taken over is if it goes' into Chapter 11, then its brought for pennies on the £.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day.
HC
Well as the day goe's by the HBR SP falls further whilst the price of a barrel of oil keeps rising.
Reasons. A few. Phil 'jumping ship' is not a good sign. No update on Tolmont is a disaster. No real idea on divi payments. Debt just smoke and mirrors. Add that Berenberg upped guidance on HBR yesterday from 350p to 360p which is hardly a vote of confidence but kinda confirms a broker 'base' price at around 310p if your lucky.
Whilst other petro's have gained hugely on the back of rising energy prices this 'dog' of a share continues to slide into the abyss. For all the talk of amazing forward FCF, etc, etc, can anyone explain why this share is actually 10 times worse than PMO ever was.
I'm expecting more bad RNS in the coming days that may explain Phil's decision to exit a 'sinking ship'. If so look at sub 15p old money.
All theory, but yeeze how bad can this 'dog' get before people wake up and realise this Board are just grifters that care nothing for shareholders.
HC
Jeff
I was just saying 'what if' the price of oil tanked by 50% where would HBR SP be. Its now 17p+ old money so do you think it could be a lot less. God forbid.
Looks like Markets don't like todays RNS. Be nice to get a nice RNS.
Have a nice day.
HC