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Jeff
I just read a piece on Russia debt. Apparently to avoid 'default' on due 'notes' this week they paid 'juice' of $100+ million directly to CitiBank. Not sure if this money was in a duffel bag carried through Central London or a personal cheque from Putin. Very odd.
Russia has limited access to Swift with 8 of say 10 banks totally excluded. The 2 not excluded are used because apparently Russia is still receiving $1 billion daily for energy. Guess Europe for now have little choice but this will change within 12 months. UK easing of North Sea rules and regs are our first steps to upping home grown energy supplies. Logic suggests HBR should benefit from this.
Have a nice day.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Friday
UK markets made good gains on Thursday and HBR now at 21p +.
As I write Asia ok but HK retreating again. Oil rise continues but Gold weak. Gas ok. $ solid as usual and other currencies not much change but Rouble still worthless. Fed and UK 25 point hike as expected. Fed indicating more by end of the year. Bonds rising in anticipation with strong demand.
Crypto's on the retreat again. Very volatile asset and very risky.
UK Markets today. Could be flat given futures look weak and as usual Friday pullback possible. It could be the US opening will indicate Friday close + or -. The 25 point rate rise was not reflected in bank stocks yesterday so could see uptick today in that sector. Oil on the up suggests petro's may do well. Still a lot of cheap quality shares in the UK market.
Today for HBR. I changed my stance from weak sell to hold. Reason being that the trading statement was so so. Paying dividends, if approved by the Board, seems unwise with debt on the up. What's the logic in paying out 100/200million whilst your paying 5%+ 'juice' on rolling debt. Unlike others I did not view the update as that good, but better than the last CMD disaster. FCF was so so, Debt still bad, headline profit not great. Add the fact that Tolmont is still not working and saying it will be soon has been said many times before. There is a piece in The Times on HBR, talking about 'windfall taxes' on petro's.
Putin continues his war against mankind but looks more isolated by the day and I'm not convinced Xi wants to help or get involved in what is a PR disaster. Sanctions, and the West intent on removing dependency from Russian energy will devastate the Russian economy. The likes of India buying Russian oil on the cheap must be annoying to the West and apparently India can do it but not be affected by sanctions, why. Russian body count is staggering if true. The Ukraine military, and militia, are making them pay a heavy price with guerrilla tactics and cutting edge high tech hand launched weapons. Obviously Putin has things Cruise Missiles so he can launch from afar but as soon as they move in ground troops they get hammered. A War Crimes tribunal team are now in Ukraine. Putin and his gang will in time be held accountable.
China reeling from Covid. Today up to 35 million people in lockdown plus industries closed. Ripple affect will hurt the markets.
All theory of course and all have a nice day.
HC
Mmmmm. As usual the 'smoke and mirrors' is again used by the Board to cloud any true understanding by mere mortals like me. Tolmont. Still a maybe. Dividend. Still a maybe. Debt. Upwards. Barrelage. Very modest increase. FCF. Fag packet numbers. Headline profit. Hardly inspiring given the price of oil and gas.
How will the SP react. Lets see how the day goes' because I have no idea.
All have a nice day.
HC
Good morning on a sunny Thursday
UK markets did well on Wednesday and HBR back at 20p.
As I write Asia up following US gains. Oil and Gold doing well. Gas steady. $ strong and most currencies mixed. Fed expected 25point rise so US markets happy. Bonds steady but high demand.
Crypto bounced after South Korea gave certain approvals. Mixed messages so still high risk only for the brave.
UK markets today. Could see more gains but profit taking on the likes of BA may continue. Another interest rate rise will benefit UK banks. Energy stocks still in retreat but could recover if Oil keeps rising to 100$.
Today for HBR. Let's see the results. All guesswork but good news may see uptick. Bad news, anyones guess.
Russia looks stalled for now but their use of missiles and heavy guns still pounding Ukraine cities. Mr Putin is clearly losing it given his TV rant against Oligarchs and Russian defectors in his army in Ukraine. Viral vids of Russians shooting civilians buying bread ain't good. Their using mercenaries from Syria and Chetzna and these guys ain't known for being kind. Ukraine forces continue to take a heavy toll on Russian equipment and personel.
Japan suffered huge earthquake. China still suffering with Covid so expect serious economic problems in this part of the world.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Wednesday
UK markets in retreat on Tuesday, as was HBR. Strong late rally in US markets.
As I write Asia doing well even HK. Oil gaining a bit of lost ground but Gold dipping. Gas gaining. $ still solid with other currencies mixed no real gainers or losers. Much depends on Fed today. Will they shock the markets as Bonds suggest. Hope not, enough problems already.
Crypto's staging a rally this morning. Another false dawn, or confidence as an alternative asset after heavy falls in Oil and Gold. For me still a giant Ponzi scheme on steroids but my knowledge on Crypto is limited so I will leave it to the true 'gamblers'.
Today for UK Markets. After the late surge in US markets we may see a good bounce this morning with beaten down value stocks doing well. Tech may also do well given Nas jumped 2.9% yesterday. Energy and petro stocks may recover a bit but much depends on Oil price with big demand pullback because of China Covid shutdowns. OPEC still to decide on increased output but JPM analyst writes today that Oil price could retreat to $50. His logic being if China economy grinds to a halt we will have oversupply . Seems like we've been here before.
Today for HBR. Can't see much action most waiting for the 17th. Lets see.
World News still dominated by Putin War against Ukraine. Another maniac wanting to control the world. He's not the first and will not be the last but like Hitler he needs to be removed. Ukraine will need rebuilding and Russian reparation's to do this will bankrupt Russia and deplete their 'sovereign wealth' funds now under sanction. Will Putin win and put in a Puppet Government in Kyiv. I don't think so, but what he may do is annexe off the north through to Oddessa giving him a land bridge to the Black Sea, and cutting off Ukraine access to any land based sea ports. All speculation given things change quickly and the Ukraine military is causing the Russians some real pain. Russia has the firepower to flatten Ukraine, as its now doing, city by city, but it hasn't the experienced ground troops to beat the Ukraine fighters. I do not see Russia ever taking full control of Ukraine and bringing it under their flag. If it doe's it will be Afghanistan all over again, and Russia has bad memories of that war that in the end they lost after 10 years.
Other big story is China Covid surge with major cities in lockdown. Millions of people affected and industries closing. HK now has the highest per capita death rate in the world. Clearly Covid in its many forms is not going away.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day.
HC
Good morning on a sunny Tuesday
So Putin approached China with a begging bowl for military aid. Will Xi oblige. Unwise given sanctions against Russia would be apllied to China who have enough problems with Covid and USA sanctions on Chinese companies listed in the USA with delisting now a real concern. My guess is Xi will do little to help Russia other than in the UN. Xi wants to be seen as a peacekeeper, give him some cred on the world stage. Whatever happens Putin is losng the war. Sure he's destroying Ukraine but he will never beat the people of Ukraine, and this will destroy Russia economically for years and see the end of Putin reign.
Uk markets yesterday, so so, but ended up. HBR retreated, again.
Oil taking a 'dump' below $100 this morning. Gold doing the same and gas so so. Currencies mixed but $ solid with rate rises now how much as against when. Bonds reflecting higher rates.
As I write Asia mixed but HK getting bashed with real Covid issues now in China. Post Olympics surge not really a surprise. US markets mixed bag with Dow flat but Nas down 2% and now in 'bear' territory. Futures not great and rotation from growth to value stocks continuing.
Crypto's recovered a bit after Europe said no outright ban but new rules/regs will impact trading platforms so could see downside once the new rules/regs are fully understood. Apparently Musk said he ain't selling his crypto's. Not a good sign.
Today for UK markets. May see more rotation to value stocks like banks. Tech and growth stocks iffy. Futures not good so flat or pullback until US opens.
Today for HBR. Nervous investors 4sure waiting for the 17th. Oil seriously off highs could see more pullback. Will things change on the 17th. Pure guessing game so lets see if the HBR Board surprise us all. Nice surprise would be welcome.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day.
HC
Good morning on a sunny Monday.
Another week and Russia still being stalled by the brave Ukraine people. Cruise missiles hit important airfield in the West but more of concern is how close it was to Poland( NATO) border. Obviously a route for the West lethal aid coming into Ukraine. Will Putin stop. No chance. Will he use chemical weapons. Very likely and if used crosses the 'red lines' set by NATO/USA.
As I write Asia up with rumours that Russia v Ukraine talks going well. Unlikely. Oil well down with OPEC likely to open the taps but Iran deal looking a long way off after they fired a few missiles by accident? Gas and Gold of highs. $ doing well with Bonds flying on inflation and rate rises. £ and € so so.
Crypto's falling through support levels could be tough week. New regs/rules and sanctions worldwide making crypto trading tough.
Today for UK markets. After Fridays surprise gains a dificult call. US reversing gains on Friday to end down. Futures are up so UK may stay flat till US markets open.
Today for HBR. With Oil down and results due 17th may be tough but stay range bound till we know what's happening. Tolmont needs good news. If mixed results hard to see upside. Time will tell. Talking to petro mates over the weekend seems North Sea is in for serious investment with 'old fields' being reopened with oil expected to stay above $100 so viable. Also huge gas reserves as yet not 'tapped'.
All have a lovely day.
HC
Good morning Jeff.
Just noted Asia pullback, as you say USA not so bad but still negative and futures looking iffy. Think the inflation number at 7.9 was higher than expected so rate rises again in focus.
Friday always a 'witching day' and I'm just guessing 'money off the table', likely a smart move. Big investors kinda play the markets well so lets see if UK opens flat and await US market open.
With the huge increased defence spending by most of the West some of the defence makers will see huge revenue spikes, and profits. See UK handing out 'unbid' contracts. War makes money and the printing presses will be going 150%. USA and other defence heavy tech countries will do well. Turkey, Israel bit players but huge potential.
No surprise that Putin intends to seize assets of oversea's companies pulling out of Russia. I can see that working with the likes of BP but what about Mc Donalds, how will that work because only they can supply and make the best fries.
Have a good day. Yep its sunny here, beer ain't so good and can't get a good pint of Guiness anywhere.
HC
Good morning on a sunny Friday
War continues in Ukraine. Ukraine people still doing well. The viral video of them destroying a Russian tank convoy outside Kyiv was fantastic. Putin looking more isolated and more unbalanced. 4sure his Oligarch mates ain't happy with him. Expect extreme measures by Putin as he has to win. Chemical weapons being flagged by NATO/USA.
Bad day for UK markets yesterday. HBR held a gain but still 20p.
As I write Asia hammered again, following US losses. Oil up a tad as gas. Gold down a bit. Currencies a mixed bag but $ ok. Record 7.9 US inflation, big rate hikes again in focus but war may suppress this idea but Bond Yeilds suggest hefty rises.
Crypto's struggling. Hard to see upside with US new rules/regs. If 27 gets breached could be tough day for those with Crypto
Uk markets today. Looks like more pain and Friday is 'money off the table day' with possible escalation of the Russia vs Ukraine war over the weekend. Hard to see any winners today but plenty of losers.
Today for HBR. Toss of a coin and predicting this SP is impossible. If no news my guess is a big pullback into the weekend.
All theory of course and have a lovely day.
HC
Obsolete
Thanks for the information, you obviously know a lot more than I do on the subject. It would be interesting to know what 'hit price' HBR needs to get too where they get their 39c. Are they obliged to sell or hold if they think HBR is viable as an investment.
Have a nice day.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Thursday morning.
Putin continues in his quest to control the brave people of Ukraine. Things look to have stalled outside of Kyiv, and Ukraine military/volunteers appear to be kicking 'ass' elsewhere, albeit I'm sure the Russians are having successes. Pentagon analysts suggest Putin will go unconventional in his attack on Kyiv with a view that he has no wish to destroy the city that ultimately he wants to control and 'house' his puppet regime. Theory being chemical weapons as he used in Syria and Chetna. Putin is ramping up the rhetoric that the USA and Ukraine are developing chemical weapons in Ukraine which is tripe but could give him a 'red flag' to use such illegal weapons. Time will tell but I hope Nato and others are sending plenty of chemical masks/suits, etc.
Yesterday was a good day for UK markets and most other markets. HBR went into reverse and now sits below the magic 20p SP, again.
As I write Asia doing well as did the USA. Oil recovering heavy losses as is Gas. Gold off highs but still solid. $ ok with a bit of pressure because of Bond yields. £ not so good but Euro off lows.
Crypto's had a bounce after Biden issued new guidelines. Crypto markets saw this as positive initially but now realise Biden means centralised US Crypto, as against the de-centralised Crypto markets we have now. End game is the possible demise of the 'private sector' of Crypto. Sanctions on Russian use of crypto also a factor 4sure. In this part of the world Russian tourists are now in serious trouble. Their Debit/Credit cards no longer work at ATM's, hotels, restaurants, shops, flights, etc. I'm told thousands are stuck here and across Asia, basically penniless, with hotels refusing to give them food and board unless they pay cash. Some Russians have resorted to giving up crypto on the 'cheap'. Friend tells me 'crypto wallets' are being offered at hotels. Not sure I understand this part but hey welcome to Putin new world for Russians stuck overseas.
Today for the UK Markets. Hope to see yesterdays recovery continue but impossible to say with world events changing by the hour. Oil/gas up so energy stocks may bounce as will defence and commodities. Still a lot of oversold stocks out there.
Today for HBR. Toss of the coin. Must be the most unloved share around. News's of any kind would be nice. Will we get any, very unlikely before trading update. Still don't fully understand others that post here that say HBR SP is always under pressure because of - 'overhangs' - 'locked in shares' - 'shorts' - etc, but we will see HBR SP 'fly' once these things are behind us. Is any of this true, or is it that HBR is a 'dog' of a share and just good for 'day traders' given its volatility.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day.
HC
Bay
Do calm down dude. I wasn't quoting accounting numbers between Tullow and HBR. I was speculating that Tullow trading statement reads, maybe, like HBR. The point being that Tullow even with oil/gas at record highs is doing badly. Using the same logic could HBR trading update be similar.
Back of fag packet numbers mean little to me. With HBR, as with PMO, its the 'smoke and mirrors' of their financial statements that is of concern. I'm reasonably good with Accounts but the information they pump out is a challenge. If you understand it in detail then good for you.
A question. What exactly do you mean when you say its a 'shorters day'. I assume you give this as the reason for the SP drop. Do explain.
I think your missing the real question. Why is HBR SP now below 20p, again.
You have a nice day.
HC
For those wondering what is going on with HBR SP I suggest you read Tullow trading statement. Same animal different spots operating far from home. Reading analysis on Tullow SP fall today kinda mirrors HBR problems. Debt, wasted Capex, failed projects, decline in FCF, bad hedging, etc.
Is this a possible outcome to HBR next trading update.
Just speculation, but it shows even with oil/gas prices at record highs they may not translate to true profit.
HC
Jeff
I watch differing news media outlets, if not its unbalanced. Even the Russian one's , but they only show whats allowed. DW, AlJazerra, CNN, Sky are pumping out the same stuff but some of the more obscure one's on YouTube can give balance. Looking at everything its obvious Putin 'scorched earth' approach means total distruction, same tactics in Syria. Numbers on dead civilians is uknown but figure the real number is now into thousands.Ukraine and Russian soldier deaths are just what each side say but my guess is the Russian loses are greater.
Social media via phones is everywhere just need to look. Pretty awful stuff out there both pro and anti Russia.
The sellers of commodities get richer by the day. Profits of war bit like defence outfits. Will that change. Nope. Its always been the same and the biggest winners on this front since the last World War is the USA. Another , but kinda unknown, big winner is Israel who presently 'abstain' on sanction proposals at the UN. Bit odd.
After saying all this the only company apparently not 'making hay' is HBR. Lets see what the results say.
All theory and have a nice day.
HC
Good morning on what may be a bad Wednesday
Russia continues its assault on Ukraine with no regard to civilan deaths. War Crimes against Putin and his cronies will now happen. Will they pay for these crimes against women and children. I hope so, and I also hope Putin is soon deposed by the Russian people. If not Russia will return to the 'dark ages' of the Cold War for 20 + years.
The Ukraine spirit is amazing. Outnumbered and outgunned they continue to inflict serious damage on the Russian war machine. Drone use, stingers, javelins, and pure guts may make Russia regret this foray into Ukraine for many years. The problem is Putin soon will be a 'rat in a trap' and he's mad enough to do anything. Chemical weapons he's used before and their use on Kyiv would avoid blowing the city to bits.
USA banned Russian oil/gas. Well done Biden but symbolic as they only import 3% but still a slap in the face for Putin. UK doing the same so credit to Boris because UK will be affected. Putin threatening to turn off oil/gas to Europe. Will he, or will the Ukraine special forces blow up Nordstream 1 before he can do anything. Europe will struggle without Russian energy but this is war so everyone needs to accept the 'pain' to beat the Russian aggression.
As I write Asia not doing well. US was the same. Oil price upwards and Gas prices crazy. Gold doing well above 2000$. $ solid. £ and € doing badly. Rouble. Worthless. Swiss still best bet.
Sanctions on Russia increasing daily. PWC, KPNN, Pepsi, Coca Cola, Starbucks and others shutting 'shop' in Russia. Even Shell backpeddling on buying from Russia after they were caught. The French supermarket outfit Danone refusing to close shop in Russia. Simple. Boycott all their shops and products.
Today for UK markets. Pointless guessing as world events now changing by the hour. Energy, defence, mining, should benefit.
Today for HBR. Toss of a coin. SP should be soaring instead once again in retreat. Why . Overhang, shorts, Tolmont, debt. Possible bad news given Phil surprising and rapid departure. He obviously knew a lot more than us but odd to say the least. Anyway all speculation.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day.
HC
y11
Ok, lets agree to disagree on HBR. If the results are good, and the SP flies, I will happily agree with your opinion but for now I stay on a 'weak sell'. In the meantime keep the insults in check. If not, I will gladly respond.
Have a nice day.
HC
Y11
Dude, stop with your amazing guides on how investment works. Its tripe. If its that easy why are you not mega rich, because you ain't.
I'm trying not to be so caustic with my responses to you. I even offered friendly advice last week on your EVRAS/POLYM disaster. Did it work. Nope, so whats the point. Your just a stupid Dumb Muppet so my new advice is you just carry on in your fantasy land.
As always, you have a nice day.
HC
Good morning y11.
Obviously you were up at the crack of dawn in your Muppet Cave, cuppa and a piece of toast, eagerly awaiting my daily update that today did not appear. Now your upset because you have no insight to the day ahead simply because you don't understand much. Never mind, just read a book or watch the news.
Its odd. Even during war and conflict, and a time when I guess most of us here are losing money, you just can't stop acting like a turd. Its baffling.
Are you unable to show empathy for others, you know like the war in Ukraine. Why only focus on my daily posts. There are far more serious issues in play, that will affect us all.
On HBR. Yep, my stance remains 'weak sell'. Why would it change as we have no news, which could be bad news. Oil/gas is at record highs with other petro's posting record profits and higher SP but the HBR SP is still 20p in old money. Why is that, do you know, because I don't. If you can explain this conundrum tell us all because we all need to know. You said a few days ago that you 'knew things', and news was coming, but it didn't. If you do have Insider Information then share it, if not then a good idea to just shut up.
Dude. Your repeated boasts about your investment prowess is tiresome. You lose money, as do most of us at present. You boast you can predict the markets, HBR SP, price of oil/gas, etc, etc, and your making 'loads a money', really. How's EVRAS, POLYM, doing. Your a 'Walter Mitty' character posting on LSE because I guess you have no friends. You lack the intellectual skills needed to understand investing, and thereby express useful comment. Do me a favour . Stop the daily lies, its really boring.
You have a lovely day.
HC
Good morning on what is a terrible Monday.
Putin and his army continue their onslaught on Ukraine. No rhyme or reason just Putin attempt to destroy Ukraine whatever it costs. The Ukraine people continue in their heroic defence. The West is helping as much as possible but not 'crossing the line' giving Putin the excuse to start a World War. Time is not on Ukraine side, but neither is it on Putin side. What he thought would be an easy invasion is not so easy. Putin may win the battle, but he will not win the war because 44 million Ukraine people love their country, and will never 'bend the knee' to Putin. He has now made Russia a pariah in most of the world.
Sanctions are solid. A world ban on Russia oil/gas industry seems inevitable whatever the cost. Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Apple, etc, cutting off all use of their platforms and 'cards' in Russia, or by Russians abroad.
Moving on to the markets. UK markets got hammered last week, and Friday was awful. My guess is we're all sitting on big losses. HBR retreated, so back to 20p. Oil/gas prices soaring to new highs so it makes no sense that HBR is stuck at 20p unless MM's know more than us. Very likely.
As I write Asian markets getting hammered. US markets came of lows on Friday but that means nothing. Brent just shy of 140$, gas soaring. Gold hit 2000$. $ solid with other currencies all over the place. Swiss currency safe haven.
Crypto's falling aggressively. Binance and others cutting off Russian crypto trades a factor. Add that credit/debit cards, issued by Russian Banks, no longer work in, or outside Russia, and overseas Bank cards not working in Russians. Crypto traders have no way of moving from crypto to cash, or reverse trades. Add overall sanctions that are looking for Russian money movement linked to crypto.
Today for FTSE. I'd like to say we will get a bounce after Friday but I see no reasons to suggest that. The world is on the cusp of a possible World War, best case is it stays confined to Ukraine but repercussions will still impact every country. Risk factors now far outweigh any rewards. Bond Yields falling suggest increased demand to move into these safe havens. Defence stocks and the energy sector should rise but who knows the selling on Friday was pure 'panic', and that may continue today. If your brave and have available capital you should be buying beaten down value stocks.
Today for HBR. No idea, just a coin toss. If it turns out there is bad news from HBR its hard to see upside but the fact is any oil/gas company should be making a 'killing' at present. Is HBR. Anyone's guess.
Will things improve in the markets. Unlikely. Only regime change in Russia can stop this madness. Will the Russian people act against this madman. Time will tell.
All theory of course, and all have a nice day on what will I'm sure be stressful.
HC