Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Good morning all on this sunny Monday.
Roller-coaster last week. The FTSE recovered Friday, as did most world markets. HBR did well, with gains linked to oil/gas and exposure to the North Sea.
As I write Asia down. Futures look grim for UK and US today. Oil, Gas, and Gold prices soaring. $ must have currency as a safe haven. £ ok but Euro pressured. Rouble fell 30% on Monday. Bond Yields off highs but strong demand.
Crypto's in retreat. Not a good hedge and large crypto holders based in Russia/East Europe. Could be a tough week.
Putin upping the risk with talk of 'nuclear' option is scary. His invasion of Ukraine was a mistake, and its going badly. Ukraine people forming militia to hunt out Russian soldiers is great. Putin has told his military to up the ante and cripple Ukraine and destroy their government. Viral videos tell stories of bravery. The Russian tank deliberately running over the car and the old guy surviving was amazing. The old lady giving Russian soldiers sun flower seeds to put in their pockets that will grow when their dead bodies lie in Ukraine soil was moving. World sanctions are dramatic with partial blocks on the Swift payment system and the Russian Central Bank, plus all Russian banks. A 'run' on its banks with Russians withdrawing billions. $ are no longer available. World sports placing bans and restrictions on their involvement. Poland refusing to play the World Cup qualifier. Abramovich handed over Chelsea to the Charity before it was seized under new UK Sanctions against him and other oligarchs. Will this end badly. It could; Putin has to win so he will do anything because if he fails his reign will end.
Chinese property Bond Defaults now affecting lender Banks in Asia. The 2022 stimulus packages are not improving the situation with the Chinese now reluctant to buy property. Impact on overall economy could be serious, and what happens in China will affect us all.
Sport. City got lucky and Liverpool won the Cup. England rugby held the spirited Welsh. France hammered the Scots. Ire vs Italy was crazy, expect World Rugby to change the rules today.
Today for FTSE. Futures suggest falls. Energy stocks should do well but BP is a risk given its Rosneft asset will likely be a total write off. Solid stocks like Banks with good balance sheets may fall but should be ok. Stocks with exposure to Russia or Europe will be under pressure.
Today for HBR. It should rise in tandem with on oil/gas prices. Exposure to the North Sea, that the UK Gov now says is important to the UK economy, could be a positive. New North Sea licenses may be a factor but not sure if HBR is in play. A positive update from the Board would help with regard to Tolmont, etc.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day. Don't like my post, just don't read it. Simple.
HC
Hi y11, how are you today.
It appears you have a new best mate in Baccs. Understandable as you do have a lot in common. You both lie a lot about your interest in HBR, and your 'loads of money' stories. Sadly this is nonsense and looking at your 'post' history exposes what a load of tripe you bith spew on a daily basis.
I'm happy to debate with those having something worth saying . Sadly you pair of Dumb Muppets can't express anything new on HBR or anything else but just the same daily boring nasties.
You both have lovely day and do see if you can help each other with the meds. Baccs has a really good mental health Doctor. Best option is to 'filter' me then I can't hurt your childish feelings.
HC
Good morning all on this sunny Friday.
Brutal Thursday for the FTSE but HBR made gains.
As I write Asia up but HK now falling . Good rally in the US with Nas posting solid gains. Oil on the up after the sell off. Gold losing steam but still good hedge. $ and £ doing well and Euro coming off a bottom but risk/reward negative. Gas keeps rising.
Russia now entering most of Ukraine going after military and infrastructure. Cost to Russia could be very high both on the sanctions front and body count once the Ukraine military get over the initial shock. Russia needs to remember they were beaten in Afghanistan after ten years of attrition by Afghan soldiers who lived in caves. Ukraine soldiers are better equipped than Afghans and are not shy when it comes to fighting . Russian stock market in freefall and suspended and the rouble will be worthless in the coming months.
BP. already told to extract themselves from the Russian petro market by the UK Government. Other UK/Russian companies will be under similar instruction. Big weapon for Russia is energy that Europe has become dependant on. Expect this to change with Governments ramping up 'home grown' energy supplies. In the UK case the North Sea.
Xi of China appears to be starting his actions on Taiwan. Another nutter wanting to rule the world.
Crypto's making a good go of it with a 'dead cat bounce'. Will it last. Unlikely is my guess,
Today for the FTSE. After yesterdays losses we could see good gains today but things may change once the US markets open and most will not want to leave money on the table over the weekend given world events, like a war in Europe. Most stocks got hammered yesterday, some oversold, so bargains out there if you have cash spare.
Today for HBR. Gains yesterday reflected their exposure to the North Sea, and the price of oil/gas. Will the gains continue today. No idea but witching Friday is seldom good for HBR.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day. If you don't like my posts don't read em. Simple.
HC
Good morning y11.
See your still around, which surprises me given you told us all you sold out of HBR not that many days ago, one assumes at a big loss. You then said you would inform us mere 'mortals', and give reasons, and only then rebuy HBR within a range of 10p to 200p. I thought at the time that was a really low ball call by you given your such a big fan of HBR. Come on dude, what happened, tell us 'mortals' why did you rebuy at 350p+ if 10p to 200p was your target range. Is the truth of the matter that you just pretending to invest and again telling 'porkies'.
See your blatant efforts at 'ramping' HBR. Shocking really, and where exactly do you get your numbers of £4 onwards (not one wards) to £6. Big difference to 10p to 200p. Question. Are you taking med's.
Anyway, I see as usual you don't have anything original or witty to say today. Just the usual 'Harry keeps making the wrong calls'. Yep, I'm pretty sure I do, none of us is perfect but the big difference is I 'man up' and admit it, you sadly do not. Plus, if I was clever enough to predict things accurately on a daily basis I would be on a big yacht, and I would certainly not be chatting to you.
You have a lovely day and calm down a bit.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Thursday from the other side of the world.
I was really surprised that the FTSE did not drop on Wednesday. Even HBR made a gain.
As I write Russia has declared a de-facto War against Ukraine with Russian troops now moving into separatist parts of Ukraine. Likely this will escalate beyond these areas to achieve Putin end game for a 'land bridge' from Crimea.
On this dramatic news Asian markets are presently falling off a cliff, with steep falls in US Markets into correction territory. Oil price soaring, as is Gold and Gas. $ strengthened and £ ok. Bond Yields could tapper but demand is high. This war will make inflation higher and result eventually in more interest rate hikes.
Crypto's also falling off a cliff. Broke 25 and new bottom is anyone's guess but scary times.
China media leaked, intentionally or not, a memo from the Government saying China needs to support Russia so that Russia will support China if it invades Taiwan. Putin and Xi playing scary World Chess.
Today for the FTSE. For two days I expected big falls, that didn't happen. With War now in play its seems logical to assume the FTSE will follow the US and Asia and fall maybe 2%. Hard to see an upside today but again energy and gold stocks may do well. If you have free available capital there will be bargain stocks to buy 4sure.
Today for HBR. With oil/gas prices soaring HBR should see significant gains but HBR seldom follows the normal gains of other petro's. Risk/reward remains negative and there exist better bets in the sector. As always no news from the Board is bad news.
On BP. Investors will now be very nervous given BP exposure to the Russian petro industry. If the world issues blanket sanctions against Russia its unlikely Putin will be kind to foreign investors like BP. Bit like Xi with the foreign Bond Holders in the Chinese property sector who he say's are not China's problem will now likely be wiped out.
All theory of course, and all have a lovely but likely tough day. For those that dislike my posts just don't read em or filter. Easy.
HC
I read the UK Gov to hand out 3 or 4 new licenses for North Sea Oil exploration/fields. Will this mean they will give tax or other incentives to those interested. Obviously the North Sea is now being viewed as necessary to maintain UK energy needs so the de-fossilation brigade will be upset. Again.
How will this play out with the Scot's. Blackwood and Sturgeon I'm sure will want their two pennies worth.
HC
HC
Hi Oil, how are you today. Apologies I missed your long critique of my posts yesterday.
Anyway, not sure the point your trying to make. Spelling mistakes, really. My views world events and the impact on the markets are just that, my views, right or wrong, no idea, just the way I see world news very early in the morning and my guess what may, or may not, affect the markets. I don't have a crystal ball, and if I was clever enough to be correct all the time I would be sailing the world on a big yacht and certainly not wasting my time posting on HBR LSE.
As for my interaction with other posters. You will know from our own past 'debates' that I do not shy away from debating matters . I accept that my comments may appear overly caustic, but are balanced, and respond to the group of Dumb Muppets that use the HBR message board to air grievances against others simply because they do not like what is written, but frankly have nothing better to say themselves . If I'm trolled by others for expressing my opinion I will respond in kind. If my comments offend you, or anyone else, just don't read them or press the 'filter' button, its really that simple.
My views on HBR are clear. Its a 'dog' of a share hence my 'sell'. We sit at record high energy prices but the SP of HBR remains sub 20p, now 17p, and looks to be going nowhere. If I'm wrong I'm happy to listen but clearly the MM's also see this share as not worth investing in. I've been around since the early PMO days and I've seen this 'smoke and mirror' act before and the only difference is this HBR Board are a bit cleverer but to be clear they only care about the 'lenders', not the shareholders. How else do you explain the non-communication with shareholders, or updates on the likes of Tolmont. If I'm wrong, and HBR SP hits £5/£6, I will be happy to admit I was wrong. Until that happens my views are unlikely to change.
Spelling - how would you like it spelt - verb 3rd person present - goes' - goes ?
You have a lovely Wednesday and lets hope its not as bad as I suggest.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Wednesday
Bit of a surprise FTSE ended up a tad Tuesday, as did HBR.
As I write Asia mostly down tracking more steep falls in the US and elsewhere. Oil off highs as is Gold. Gas again up. $ doing well as is £. Bond yields flattened but still safe haven with money leaving the markets.
Crypto's recovered a bit but still looking negative.
Russia has now 'partly' invaded Ukraine. Sanctions issued quickly, and big news is Germany cancelling certification of Nordstream which is a big deal for Gazprom the 'cash cow' of the Russia. Sanctions on Russian banks and foreign debt availability a big deal and going after the Russian 'elite' money will upset the power brokers in Russia. Expect more sanctions today if Russia pushes past the two 'enclaves' they have now recognised as independent. It may be Putin has what he wants already and 'stalls' but no good second guessing Putin next move. Even China condemning Russia invasion of Ukraine.
If this war escalates Energy prices will continue upwards. $100 Oil looks likely soon, and Gas prices will continue to climb.
Today for FTSE. Thought Tuesday would be brutal, but it wasn't, but I think Wednesday will be. Hard to see any positives with only Energy related stocks maybe doing well.
Today for HBR. Again, surprised no SP drop Tuesday but with the oil price so high why are we stuck at 17p+. It may bounce as a cheap petro play but risk/reward remains negative on this 'dog', so again, just a toss of a coin.
All have a lovely day and for those that dislike my posts, don't read em, simple.
HC
Good morning on this rainy Tuesday.
Monday was brutal for the FTSE and HBR. Today could be worse.
As I write Asia in the toilet as was US markets. Oil soaring as is Gold. Gas doing the same. $ ok and £ doing well.
Crypto's now in freefall with 27 breached. New bottom. No idea but if holding crypto's be nervous 4sure.
Putin playing the game. Annexed parts of Ukraine that has Russian sympathies without bloodshed. He may stop at this but markets think full blown war will happen. Biden et al trying their best to broker a deal but each day looks more likely we will have a European War.
Today for the FTSE. Brutal is my guess. Lets see how the day goe's.
Today for HBR. No idea. Oil/gas soaring now sub 17p old money. Hard to fathom but clearly HBR viewed as too risky.
All have a lovely day. Don't like it don't read it. Simple
HC
Hi Baccs. Sorry I nearly missed your lovely post today. I was kinda busy on important stuff like a 'war' and impact on the markets.
Anyway, its nice to see you slid out of your turd hole to vent your spleen yet again. Why, no idea, but look I know your struggling with HBR but come on dude we all are so grow up a bit and stop trolling me. It's really bad for you.
I avoided mentioning your other disaster- DARK, you can keep that a secret, ok.
I've decided I'm not going to be nasty to you today. Pointless really as your turnip of a brain fails to grasp my words. Much better you just toddle off back into your broom cupboard and write tomorrows 'piece' to post.
Have a nice day.
HC
Hi Lady and Stan
Thanks for the explanation on HBR 'lockin' shares. Very helpful.
On the word 'huge'. Just my read of other other posters using 'big', 'large' , 'huge' to describe this overhang of HBR shares. Is the actual number of shares in play big enough to be a worry if put into the markets all at once.
HC
Y11
So your back into HBR above 350p. Bit surprised given you said your rebuy range after you sold would be 10p/200p. Big difference to 350+. You kmow the old adage 'once bitten twice shy' kinda relates to HBR. Anyway, good luck with your new investment in HBR.
Lots of interesting stuff to read if you have the time to look. Here is a question I've often asked that you may have the answer.too. It appears there exists a huge overhang of PMO/HBR shares that may flood the market on the cheap once a 'lockout' period lapses. My read is that this may happen in March/April 2022. Do you know if this is correct and do you have the details. Bit of a quiz.
Have a nice day.
HC
y11 - Good morning to you.
Slightly confused. I thought you had sold out of HBR and gone on to better things but here you are on HBR still posting. I should be flattered you still read my early morning posts. Why is the question, as they still appear to annoy you for some odd reason.
William Shakespeare is ok to a point but heavy reading. Not sure I understand the adage of a million typewriters and monkeys bit. If your trying to say I write to much, and its heavy going, just say so. I promise I will not be offended.
Anyway, you have a nice day, and lets hope the markets behave better than last week.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Monday.
Last week was bad for the FTSE and World Markets. HBR now back at 17p old money (350p).
As I write, Asia big drop but recovering with Aus up a tad. Big drops in US markets on Friday. Nas and SP in 'correction' territory. Forward futures for Monday not looking good. Oil weakening a bit. Gold off recent highs but good bet. Gas on the up. $ doing well as is £. Bond yields continue upwards with 'safe haven' attraction pushing up demand with higher interest rates now the main issue with inflation running amok. Forward futures on Brent above $100 . The idea that Iran would quickly replace Russian oil/gas supplies, if embargoed, is just guesswork. If this did happen it would take time.
Crypto's again in retreat, new bottom will be 27 if 30 is breached but really just guesswork. I read that 80% of all crypto is owned by 'gangsters', and 50% of this they somehow stole from crypto platforms (banks) over the last 2 years. Scary stuff and it being dubbed the biggest ever 'ponzi' scheme seems pretty accurate.
Russia is invading, ain't invading. No idea which, but clearly Putin wants a 'win' out of this. Biden and he said they will talk on Monday which should calm the markets a bit. Problem is Putin is now 'trapped' by his own actions so will he concede and not invade. This will weaken his 'strong man' rep with the Russian people. No idea, but lets hope we avoid a mass war in Europe. To consider. Ukrainian's are not known for their kindness. If Russians enter Ukraine by force there will be severe consequences. Ukraine may be weaker militarily but most speak Russian with military know how. In country insurgence against the Russian military, or terrorist attacks in Russia itself. likely. I'm pretty sure Russians will not want this and know what happened in Afghanistan, and have a good understanding of what happened to the USA in Vietnam. History has a habit of repeating itself.
Olympics nearly done so Xi will possibly start on Taiwan shortly after. Aiming lasers at Australian aircraft is just Xi flexing his muscles. Property Bond Debt is collapsing across China. This is another negative for any companies with exposure to Chinese markets. US upping the 'bad boy' list on Chinese Companies listed in the US is growing and expect Xi to retaliate.
Today for HBR. No idea, toss of a coin, and without positive news it will likely decline. If Oil/Gas spikes it may get a lift but otherwise still rangebound 15p to 18p old money.
A point on BP. If a war starts then BP part ownership of Russian Oil/Gas assets will be at serious risk if Putin reacts to strict sanctions.
Sport. EPL - bad result for MC. Olympics - hurling great results.
All theory of course and all have a lovely Monday. If you don't like what I write then don't read it or simpler just hit the 'filter' button.
HC
Good morning on this rainy Thursday
FTSE had a tough Wednesday and HBR held small gain.
As I write Asia down as was the US. $ weak but £ and € doing well. Oil dropping but Gold doing well as solid hedge. Gas so so.
Crypto's falling back and figure big correction soon to the + or -. No idea.
Russia ain't withdrawing in fact had a few skirmishes in the last 24 hours plus full on cyber warfare. Keplenski will fold and welcome Putin is my guess to avoid bloody conflict. China has Putin back so his 'game of chess' continues.
Today for FTSE. 50/50 but risks remain but Fed meeting minutes may calm the interest rate issues. That said Bond Yields on the up again so multiple rate rises for 2022 look a given. Petro's look to pull back so maybe a good buy in point. Banks stepped back but should recover.
Today for HBR. Pointless even tossing a coin. No idea.
All have a lovely day.
HC
Good morning.
Daily Mail: Shell has sold a number of stakes in ageing fields in the North Sea, including a £2.8bn package of assets to Harbour Energy in 2017.
This appeared today on City Wire daily newspaper summary. Hope it helps.
HC
So Shell have announced that it sold a bunch of its old rusty assets, and rights, in the North Sea for £2.8 billion to HBR.
Yep. That'll work and sure the lenders are really happy as are Shell. Question. Did HBR buy the whole £2.8 billion
HC
Good morning on this sunny Wednesday
FTSE ended well Tuesday following news Russia reducing troop numbers on Ukrain border. HBR SP sadly did not do well. Another 'dog' day.
As I write Asia well up following US market bounce. Oil up a tad Gold down a tad. $ solid with £+€ so so. Gas pulling back..
Crypto's holding recent gains. Could be a 'false dawn'. New regs will impact Crypto's.
Putin might be a 'market' player. Pretend to start a war so your assets gain. Russian oil money is now filling his pockets. Just a theory.
Keep asking. Whats the story on the HBR Share overhang/closed date for selling. If and when this happens how will it affect exist shareholders. Any explanation would be helpful
Today for FTSE. Could see more upside but caution 'out of the gate' awaiting US open where futures look good. Inflation may be a factor today if MMs relax on Russia issue but figure Putin will do something. You know like Novechok.
Today for HBR. No idea toss of a coin as usual. Feels like the market is waiting for news. Good or bad. My guess is bad news or no news. Even good news may not achieve much.
Uk Gov Energy Minister talking up importance of North Sea oil/gas supplies. It may be that the minor players like HBR will get incentives to keep it going , rusty rigs and all.
All theory of course and all have a lovely day. Don't like what I write. Don't read it. Simple.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Tuesfay
Bad Monday for FTSE and HBR failed to hold its gains.
As I write Asia down as was US market. Oil dipped of highs with Gold getting tractiion as safe hedge. Gas off gains. $ doing well with £ and € pressured. Bond yields up again.
Russia still a threat but Ukrain suggesting no NATO tie up may appease Putin for now but he and Xi throwing their weight around. This is the result of 4/5 years of the Trump circus where the US turned from being the 'world police' into a laughing stock as far as Russia and China are concerned. Sadly Biden needs to pick up the 'bits' and try and assert the US again. Will he succeed. Not whilst the Rep Party and Trump continue to destroy the US political system.
Cryptos, as with Gold having a bounce. Will it last. No idea but at least Gold looks nice.
Today for the FTSE. 50/50 but figure more losses but much depends on US markets with 'futures' not good. All depends on Russia for a few days with rate rises playing second fiddle. Be a bad week but may see a solid bounce if Putin withdraws.
Today for HBR. No idea but oil on the slide may see SP reverse. As usual a toss of a coin.
Did anyone come up with the answer to the 'overhang' question on HBR and what will happen when the 'lock in' ends.
Chinese property outfits under the cosh. More bond defaults so expect post Olympics som action by Xi in the sector. Expect Taiwan to come into play whilst Russia is distracting tge world.
Olympics. Awful. China and Russia has convicted drug takers now taking part but if they win no medals. Odd kind of games 4sure.
All theory of course. Have a nice day.
HC
Good morning on this sunny Saturday.
Friday ended up with a small FTSE loss. HBR dropped a tad.
With the US and UK telling all their citizens to leave Ukrain it seems as if Putin invasion plans are stepping up and the Intelligence Agencies have solid indications of Putin intent. My guess is a bloodless coup, with Putin putting in a 'puppet' PM. The Ukrain people may see it differently and they're not known for being timid when it comes to a fight. Rumour is Putin is using the Winter Olympics, and his new best friend Xi, as a distraction and a 'backstop' to cover his ass if NATO and US try to intervene. The logic being that this is tantamount to a World War and with Xi onside Putin thinks the world will do nothing. If this plays out over the weekend the Asian and European markets will 'tank' on Monday and follow the steep falls in the US markets late Friday.
Oil spiked dramatically on Friday because of the Russia vs Ukrain problem. Gas did much the same. If it happens we will breach $100 a barrel next week.
Ok, a world war is bad enough, but inflation is also the prime mover in the markets now. Interest rates will rise but by how much. Talk by JPM of 7 rises by the Fed by years end is scary. Bond Yields continue upwards to reflect these opinions and the $ is viewed as a safe haven so is again on the up.
Next week for the FTSE could be brutal but a good time if you have surplus free capital. If your in solid cyclical stocks the risk/reward is ok, they will drop but losses should be minimal. If your in growth stocks the risk/reward is not ok as shown by the Nas again getting hammered Friday. Losses on these stocks could overshoot to the downside and throw up buying opportunities.
Next week for HBR. Toss of the coin as usual but with Oil prices skyrocketing there may be gains even for this 'dog'. That said, Oil/Gas prices have risen for the last year. When Oil was $50 we were at 20p old money, now Oil is heading towards $100 but HBR are still rangebound at 17p+ old money. Makes no sense other than the risk/reward on this share is viewed by MM's as just too risky.
My guess, and its only a guess, is that the HBR Board have more bad news in the 'pipe'. What exactly, no real idea, but I could take a guess. Tolmont, large overspend on Capex and debt/divi payment issues as a result.
The 'free float' on share option overhangs, locked in shares, etc, I find very confusing. Some say when this happens the market will be flooded with cheap HBR shares and possibly a sharp SP fall. Others say it will be a good thing and remove this surplus of HBR shares from the 'share ledger'. I would really appreciate if others could express their views on this matter. My own thought is if we do get a 'dump' of HBR shares, once this 'lock in' period ends, we could see serious downside if 'institutions' do not take up the 'slack'.
All theory of course and all have a lovely weekend. Don't like what I write. Don't read it. Simple.
HC