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Hard to know where this SP is going but a 7++ million sell on 23rd is a worry 4sure. Question. Is it a sell or a buy as LSE is often wrong on both sides of the trade. Have until 30th to take up options. Seems little point given SP is 12p+ or -.
Be a short trading day so could be money off the table over a long holiday given risk/reward is negative with Omnicron.
As I write Asia is mixed and going nowhere and US ended up. Oil down as is Gold. Gas dropped a bit. Cryptos bounced but BOE says zero value but many made a lot of money but still ultra high risk but Musk again promoting crypto. $ weak but £ doing better.
Omnicron still dominates and post holidays could be brutal if we get huge surges. Good news is another tablet for Covid got FDA approval so at least big pharma will continue to make huge profits of people getting sick.
Russia has still not invaded Ukrain and China playing 'long game' for now with Taiwan. NATO and USA on high alert but guess China will want to get the Olympics finished first and Putin is going so would not look good if their both firing off non nuclear missiles at Taiwan or the Ukrain. Kinda ruin the Olympic ideal.
Today for the FTSE. Again, think a drop is likely if only for the fact traders are nervous and don't want to be exposed over the holiday period.
HBR today. No real idea but my guess is more downside as still a very speculative buy at best. Risk/reward very negative for me, others will disagree.
Tolmont remains a drag and I read some optimism that it may come online in January. My view is wait and see given we've heard this same story month on month for 2021. Even if Tolmont goe's online in early 2022 will it produce oil/gas at a profit. All guesswork at present.
I also read some theories that HBR may again merge with another minor petro'. Possible I suppose and would allow the HBR Board to dilute HBR shareholders as happened when they robbed PMO shareholders. HBR have large legacy tax benefits from PMO so doing this 'smoke and mirrors' trick again could have benefits for everyone, say lenders et al, but not existing HBR shareholders and may explain the institution overhang that may get 'dumped'. If this happens what SP for HBR.
All theory of course and to those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
All have a lovely Xmas Eve and a very Happy Christmas.
HC
Hello laidback me old Muppet. I missed you and here's me thinking you'd hopped it and gone Xmas shopping and wasn't gonna say Happy Xmas. Come on dude get with the Xmas spirit and you might just get lucky and get some new adult pampers in your Xmas stocking.
You have a lovely day and a Happy Xmas. Oh, and do try and grow up just a little bit in 2022.
HC
Good to see HBR hanging in there in the 350p range which is 17.5p old money so still backwards since the PMO robbery took place. So what next for HBR and the markets.
As I write Asia up and US rose. Oil and Gold up and gas nearing all time highs. Crypto's under the cosh with a Russia ban to play out given a lot of Bitcoin 'miners' operate in that part of the world because lots of cheap hydro power. Who will be next to ban crypto's outright? $ doing well and £ bounced.
World events. Nato on high alert with Russia looking to make a move on Ukrain. China locking down provinces with high Covid numbers so thats the Winter .Olympics possibly cancelled. Omnicron making it a very unhappy Xmas for most of the world and post Xmas, and New Year, we will see new Covid surges. New Covid tablet gets FDC approval. Travel bans extended so hol's in sunnier places now off the menu so Blackpool in the snow is beckoning.
Today for HBR and the FTSE..50/50 call for the FTSE but I think the holiday will take money off the table by early close on Friday. HBR. No idea but still see downside on risk/reward without some positive RNS or even Board members buying shares might help.
All have a lovely day and a Merry Xmas. Those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
HC
Oh dear Laidback.
Is that really the best you have. C'mon Dude grow a pair and debate, its ok, just you keep being a nasty Muppet for no good reason.
You know envy and jealousy go hand in hand. You appear to suffer from both.
Anyway, you just have a lovely day and you must go outside the air works wonders for the Muppet brain cells.
HC
Well at the end on Monday HBR recovered and only a small loss. FTSE did badly overall.
So how about Tuesday. As I write Asia up across the board. US took another buggush hit. Oil trying to recover and Gold down a tad. Gas moving upwards again. Crypto's trying to bounce but still high risk to the downside. $ still strong with £ weak.
Tuesday for HBR.Given it held up Monday I guess it may bounce a bit on Tuesday on the back of the oil rise and if the FTSE recovers a bit. 50/50 call but expect US markets to possibly bounce and drag the FTSE with it.
Gas prices as others have noted is a big factor for HBR if they can produce the stuff profitably against Capex. I have no idea as to the actual production costs for HBR on gas or the hedge percentages so i rely on others to provide the info.
Big drag on HBR will remain Tolmont. On line date is a bit of 'how long is a piece of string'. Unknow, as is the Capex needed to actually make it work. Add that the true numbers on oil/gas volume in the Tolmont field is a guess at best and is it viable if Capex exceeds hedged margins. Pointless pumping the stuff if you lose money.
Ommicron is certainly here for Xmas. Most countries now reporting huge surges with the US suggesting 75% new cases Omnicron. On that basis this variant has been around for months. China and Singapore now going full tilt at locking down areas.
On a more serious note. I'm now not going on my New Year cruise around NZ because they found crew members have a new variant. Whats this one called. We will soon run out of names for Covid.
All theory and those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
All have a nice day.
HC
Hi Laidback
You sent me such a short message I nearly missed it Thankfully I didn't.
Once again I'm flattered you read my early.morning musings but why oh why do you bother given they obviously upset you so.
I can only guess that your ego is rather deflated today hence a need to vent your anger at me with childish comment. Never mind, I fully understand and I'm really not offended and do remember its nearly Christmas so we need be happy and cheerful and kind to each other.
Enough of that nonsense. Your just a Dumb Muppet, no question, and even if I said HBR was a 'diamond' you would still come out with your childish prattle. May I suggest you grow up a bit for 2022.
Have a nice day.
HC
Could be a tough week for the markets and the FTSE.
As I write Asia down across the board following big drop in the US on Friday. Oil taking a hit and Gold down. Crypto's still dropping. $ still pretty solid.
Today for HBR. Guess will track markets but oil price and sentiment still main factors. My guess is a possible sharp drop in a shortened week with money moving out of the markets over the holiday.
Omnicron causing more chaos with mandates and lockdowns in play in UK, Europe and US. This is now entering risk/reward/fear downside on markets. Add in that Manchin vetoed the US stimulus Bill and things could worsen till the New Year.
Chinese property market collapse spreading and now affecting related industries that supply raw materials like steel and concrete. Xi needs to get this under control as could impact World Markets.
Russia again playing silly sods with gas supplies to Europe so prices could spike.
All theory of coarse. For those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read them. Simple.
All have a good Monday.
HC
Y11
My view on your posts about buying PMO for pennies, and therefore you made 'loads of money', when it became HBR I think is a bit of your own 'smoke and mirrors'. However many PMO shares you owned at consolidation resulted in a nett loss of 95%. Do the math. Say you already own 10,000 PMO shares at say an average of 40p. You brought a further 10,000 PMO at say an average of 10p. This gives you a total cost of say £5,000. At consolidation you were diluted by 95% = £250 to buy HBR shares at 400p = 62.5 HBR shares. I know because I also brought 'loads' of PMO for a few pennies.
Anyway, it matters not. The result is we ended up with a diluted 5% holding in HBR shares that have never traded in the penny range to which you refer.
Just my opinion but do feel free to tell me how you made 'loads of money' out of what was PMO that is now HBR. I'm really interested.
Do me a favour and don't get childish with your response just give a grown up explanation.
You have a lovely Sunday and a very Happy Christmas..
HC
Surfit
Sadly my insight into the workings of HBR is limited at best. Who owns what remains for me part of the reason I view this share as a 'sell'. The HBR Board use the same 'smoke and mirrors' as did PMO albeit this gang are far cleverer. Obviously others will disagree, and some may even suggest they know everything. I hope so because I think most are
You have a lovely Sunday and a very Happy Xmas.
HC
Hi Y11
Should I be flattered that your staying awake to read my informative early morning musings. There really is no need you can read them the next day but if you can't find them I can copy/paste for you no problem. Just let me know.
Can I ask. Are you in fact two people. One being Y11 and the other being Suposer79. I ask because its very odd that your both posting 3 messages at the exact same ungodly hour of 5.21, 5.28 and 5.34. I think your the same person, but I could be wrong, you may just be co-habiting in the same 'bat cave' and have access only to one computer.
Obviously our earlier exchanges this week were not enough to satisfy your inflated ego and I touched a 'nerve' so here we are again playing the same childish game that I'm happy to play if you wish. That said, I'm not really sure what your real point is about HBR. For me its simple, their just a bad investment, be it PMO or HBR. Clearly you think otherwise, and that's fine, everyone is entitled to their own opinions but clearly those who don't agree are always wrong. Sadly you Dumb Muppet that's not how investing works.
Thanks for sharing your buys and sells on HBR. Obviously you wanted to demonstrate your investment prowess. Question is are you lying and are you overall in 'front of the curve' on your HBR investment. I think not. Not really interested but thought I would comment anyway to make you feel happy and important and stroke your ego a bit and make you feel that you are indeed a great investor. Did it work, do you now feel happy and important?
Moving on. I do hope you can get some sleep now. Honestly, you can read my posts Saturday. Could you do me a favour. If your still drinking Fosters with the other Dumb Muppet, Suposer 79, could you give him my warmest regards.
You have a lovely weekend and a very Happy Xmas.
HC
Oh dear Suposer. Yet another Dumb Muppet appears from under a rock in the 'bat cave' to say their two tuppence.
Not sure I ever said I knew anything much about HBR, although I did know a lot about PMO. Basically the same 'animal' with the same bad habits of 'smoke and mirrors' that looks to fool investors.
My previous view on HBR remained pretty constant, 'weak sell' changed to 'hold' but overall a pretty risky investment. That changed after the awful CMD update. Can I ask did you understand it. Anyway, following that update I moved to a 'sell' opinion. I think most agreed and this is kinda reflected in the large drop in the SP over the last 7+ days, or did you miss that.
I wish I worked at JPM, I need the money, but I'm not sure they would cover HBR. That said I think Berenberg view on HBR is reasonable at 350p. Obviously you will have other views but facts are facts so try reading them before posting.
You have a lovely weekend, and a very Happy Christmas and do try and get some sleep posting in the middle of the night after one or two Fosters is not good for your health.
HC
Hi Baccs
In my early reading of yesterdays HBR posts I find you posted late in the day, and once again found it wise to be childish and attack me personally. Why exactly.
I'm somewhat confused as to why your even posting this week given you told me and everyone else you were off Alpine skiing over the Xmas period with the 'loads of money' that results from your ownership of HBR shares. Can I ask. Are you skiing now, or did you go skiing and your back early, or are you going skiing in the future, or is it in fact another fairy tale and in your 'alternate world' your really pretending about going skiing and having 'loads of money'.
I digress. What exactly was the point of your post. Are you angry because I changed my opinion on HBR from 'hold' to 'sell'. Surely the SP drop from 430p+ to 350p+ in the last 7 days gives some indication as to how disastrous the last update was, and why certain analysts downgraded their views on HBR, as did I. We now have Berenberg quoting 350p so we can only guess where the SP will be in the coming weeks as risk/reward is now firmly to the downside.
I do understand your frustration at losing money on HBR. Many here feel the same. Some admit their mistakes investing in old PMO, and now HBR, as do I, but others do not. That is the individuals right of choice but most understand the risk/reward criteria but you clearly do not.
Anyway, enough of that explanation of fact. Let me now address your childish post directly. You are clearly of limited intelligence and appear an 'angry bird' with the world in general. Again the anger part I understand, but the Dumb Muppet comments are frankly hard to understand.
You have a nice weekend. May I suggest you read some Investment Books to guide you in investing strategies' and stop reading to many fantasy comic books. Also, try and limit your time playing skiing on your Xbox to two hours a day.
HC
My guess is shareholders will now be offerred a low ball price. Say 15p. Will it be accepted. No choice. Turner and Bayford will agree, why would they not, and their majority shareholders so the vote result is already known.
All theory but we got shafted. Took Turner awhile but he's getting what he wants.
HC
Y11
Being right or wrong isn't really the point your trying to make, your saying my views, and by extension my analysis, is wrong. Why exactly. My early morning musings are just views expressed. By the end of the trading day for the FTSE I'm.pretty sure I'm wrong more than right and if so I freely admit it.
I think the real point is this. Are you up to admitting when you get it wrong, lets say on HBR, or are you like the gambler who only tells when they win.
Anyway, its obvious I don't have a crystal ball to forcast shares prices. If I did I would be sailing in a big yacht around the world and certainly not wasting my time chatting to you.
I hope you have a nice day and a lovely Xmas that is sadly once again being spoilt by a present apparently given to the world by China.
Anyone going to the Winter Olympics?
HC
Hi again Y11
Do read stuff before posting ok. It really helps.
I'm not clever enough to predict the SP of any share, and certainly not HBR which is basically a roll of the dice day by day. The views of analysts has now put 350p out there so we can only guess at HBR SP going forward. The only numbers I've quoted that are relevant to me as far as HBR is concerned was a buy range of 250p to 270p. That was based only upon good news. My position then was 'hold' that I had upped from 'weak sell' the week before last weeks disaster of an update. My position is now 'sell' for obvious reasons you may or not agree with but we are all able to express views, right or wrong. I leave HBR forcasts to others.
I would add that my early morning musings on market forces are just that, my views, and these give me an idea to how I see the FTSE that day. Others will disagree which is fine.
Anyway, if my views offend you then don't read them. Simple.
Getting the day wrong is I'm pretty sure down to age.
Anyway, you have a nice day and 'hold' on the childish comments and I will do likewise.
HC