RE: COPPER PRODUCTION24 Dec 2025 18:33
Ardbeggar, interesting — and you seem very confident in your assessment. Jubilee Metals appears to be in a position to negotiate improved terms for shareholders (my opinion and based on influencing and shaping context relevant for negotiation). The royalty fee structure, which currently excludes any benefit from upward PGM price movements, is a material issue. Jubilee is clearly aware of the profitability within its Platinum Group Metals (PGM) operations. The company is also capable of adjusting its PGM recovery modules and processing costs to manage the higher levels of oxidation present in certain tailings (if needed). Encouragingly, the newly added tailings are not expected to be significantly affected by oxidation, which should help maintain stable recoveries and margins. For the first six months, assuming an average PGM basket price of US$2,050 per ounce and a processing cost of US$650 per ounce, Jubilee’s PGM operations could generate profits in excess of US$24 million. PGM prices are expected to continue rising over the foreseeable future, supporting robust earnings momentum. One Chrome could be the potential buyer of the chrome processing unit when Jubilee put it on the market for sale and will benefit from royalties which include the upward price movement and volume and with the intent to mothball the chrome processing unit. One Chrome could partner with another company to process the chrome etc.
A potential strategic move could see Jubilee issuing a notice to sell its chrome processing unit, with Once Chrome as a potential buyer. Once Chrome could then partner with another company to continue chrome processing. Jubilee would benefit both from the sale proceeds and a royalty arrangement on future chrome revenues.
Several scenarios can be modelled for PGM output, though the cost of processing the new tailings should not significantly impact overall processing capacity. The Inyoni plant currently operates at a capacity of approximately 620,000 tonnes per annum, and over the past 18 months, 1.3 million tonnes of tailings have been added — equivalent to about two years of feedstock, supporting the production of roughly 36,000 ounces of PGMs. Projected profits are expected to exceed US$50 million over the next 12 months, with a likely outcome of around US$55 million. The following year may see conservative profits of approximately US$45 million. Thereafter, profits may taper but should remain at healthy levels, supported by sustained strength in PGM prices. Overall, the PGM market outlook remains positive, and Jubilee’s modular processing capability, coupled with the prospect of a profit-sharing clause with the new chrome plant owner at Thutse, could provide a balanced path forward — combining capital realisation, recurring income, and continued exposure to PGM upside. Bottomline: Jubilee must work hard to increase shareholders wealth. They have the advantage to model future profits for PGM better royalty arrangements.