Member Info for HarmProf

Bottomsup. You don’t read — or only read selectively (most of us apply our filters and lenses to see and hear what we already believe). I’m travelling today to see the kids and for birthday celebrations, and I’m amused by how judgmental some people can be, telling me I need to “get a life”. I do have one.

I’m trying to understand how AI comes to certain conclusions. Using AI, I have also confirmed that Patriot Lithium Limited is an ASX‑listed explorer that has entered an option/JV with Newlight Nominees Zambia Ltd to acquire interests in copper exploration licences in the Mumbwa District, particularly Licence 27715-HQ-LEL near Sinomine’s Kitumba project. Of course, different AI programs can access information differently, and I’ve already noticed various issues and errors.

What I find particularly fascinating is that I cannot find any evidence of a licence number for Jubilee to support what is described as a large-scale licence in the Kabwe area. Why is this not mentioned? It is a fact that I don’t trust all the information from Jubilee, given the shifting goalposts, overpromises, changes in strategy, and failed strategies — for example, the South African experience.

There is a lot of speculation about copper profits, but who has access to the running costs, contractor payments, and roads they build? This year, profits are likely to be limited and pale compared to the PGM profits, which are significant.

All are guessing including the loyalists, but that is acceptable, because the report profit. De-rampers that report loss considered as threat.

Skepticism is prevalent among many investors as a result of Jubilee results in Zambia thus far. You cannot deny this.

AI response regarding Governor. There is no official evidence or regulatory filing confirming that Jubilee Metals Group has acquired majority control of Grovenor’s Mumbwa operation or that the licence has been transferred to Jubilee. The claim on Grovenor’s website describing a strategic partnership with Jubilee appears promotional and is not supported by official mining-cadastre data or Jubilee RNS filings. Also AI. At least I make progress to learn more and also more aware that AI makes mistakes. So, you faced with a dilemma, the Jubilee protectors of the Jubilee realm protect and discredit others, never addresses shifting goal post or strategic weaknesses, etc. and promote own opinions and viewpoint why Jubilee is a good share to invest in!

I posted this and no loyalist commented that this was absolute incorrect. The modus operandi is the silence and or ignore residents with different viewpoints. No problem for me as I am an investor and will go through massive amount of info to increase my knowledge. I am now called an AI bot!

It is frankly unbelievable. The only response from the loyalists — or rampers — is to discredit individuals, rather than to engage with the substance of an alternative interpretation. Facts are rarely challenged with facts. Instead, any differing view is treated as a threat. The debate quickly becomes “us versus them”.

The apparent modus operandi is to silence dissenting voices, rather than to address the continuously shifting goalposts, particularly in the case of Jubilee. This forum, in particular, does not appear to tolerate genuine challenge.

One individual, Seis, demonstrates a consistent weakness in this regard: rather than addressing the argument, he attacks the person presenting it. This is a textbook case of ad hominem abuse — attacking credibility without engaging with the underlying evidence.

To be clear, metal price movements are factual. Quoting a sentence from an RNS is factual. Interpreting those statements — especially when they lack clarity around timing, execution or commercial impact, as recently seen with cobalt — is both legitimate and necessary. However, the loyalists have learned only to repeat what has been released, without critique, while dismissing any alternative interpretation outright.

The failure to model or disclose upside price scenarios for chrome and PGM represents a serious omission, and the finance function should be held accountable for this. Scenario analysis is standard practice, particularly in cyclical commodity businesses.

If profits are demonstrably higher when a transaction is cancelled and PGM operations are retained for a further three years following renegotiation, then proceeding with a sale under inferior terms is not in the interests of shareholders. Discarding that potential profit also undermines the copper growth strategy, as less internally generated capital reduces the ability to accelerate expansion. This, in turn, increases the risk of missing the peak of the business cycle.

In short, robust debate is being replaced by tribal behaviour. That is not healthy for shareholders, and it does nothing to hold management to account.

I wish myself a happy birthday and found a few minutes to post a response.

How to interpret this?

"Grovenor Resources Zambia Limited’s Mumbwa operation has transitioned into a strategic partnership with Jubilee Metals Group, who have acquired majority control to advance the next phase of development. By combining Grovenor’s exploration work with Jubilee’s processing and refining expertise, the project now forms part of Jubilee’s wider Zambian copper strategy aimed at delivering up to 25,000 tons of copper per year. This partnership boosts production potential, strengthens operational capacity, and secures Mumbwa as an important long-term copper asset for the region. ""

Sure JMK will tell me to ask Governor for clarity, but Jubilee should provide us with clarity if this is true and why the paid this year 4,4m USD and described this as advancement.. They already paid 2,1 and 500k and 65% owner

What is in the Project G envelop? The not calling it Governor Mine. Study the history Project M was the launch and went from Munkoye to Molefe and no project anymore. Study the communications and history of Jubilee.

I must admit I am increasingly amused by how much attention is given to daily copper prices or isolated phrases in the annual report, while the lack of clarity in the underlying disclosures is largely ignored.

There has been no consistent or transparent effort to clarify issues that materially influence investor expectations. Over the years, this has led to growing frustration among shareholders as repeatedly stated targets have not materialised.

The RNS dated 24 June 2024 is a good example and is worth reading carefully, and perhaps reading between the lines (not much more than 1 year ago):

“Project M – which has commenced with the delivery of material to Sable three months ahead of schedule, targeting to reach 25,000 tpm at a grade of 3–4% Cu within Q3 CY2024 with a project life expectancy exceeding 8 years.”

“Project G – an operating open-pit copper mine targeting to ramp up to 20,000 tpm at a grade of 3–4% Cu in Q4 CY2024 with a life expectancy in excess of 8 years.”

In reality, these outcomes were not achieved, and the grades proved to be materially different. Yet the language used at the time was presented as if these targets were well supported.

The same applies to the broader statement:

“Jubilee has already commenced with operations at both opportunities with delivery of extracted material expected to ramp up to a targeted 45,000 tonnes of material with an expected grade of 3–4% Cu during Q3 CY2024.”

Again, this did not reflect operational reality.

I will say no more, other than that Jubilee’s publications have historically been more aspirational than factual, crafted in a way that encourages new investment, rather than being firmly grounded in verified operating data. Over time, this approach has eroded trust.

That said, I do believe Jubilee will ultimately become profitable — but not at the pace many investors hope or expect.

Finally, the proposed PGM sale, including fresh tailings and the Inyoni processing plant, would represent significant shareholder value destruction if concluded on the terms currently understood.

Https://www.grovenorsa.com/ .. explore and clarify this on the AGM. Why did they pay $ 4,4m USD as advancement (for what?). Some say to secure a license, others for upgrading, others for exclusive right to deliver to Sable. ETc.

Green boxes, let us receive clarity about the following from Jubilee. Where there is smoke there is fire...

Grovenor Resources Zambia Ltd has a copper and gold mining licence in the Mumbwa District, and Grovenor has publicly stated it entered a strategic partnership with Jubilee Metals Group to advance the Mumbwa project and include it in Jubilee’s wider copper strategy — potentially targeting up to 25 000 tpa of copper. This narrative is circulating on the Grovenor website (a non-official, non-regulated source) and is likely where the “25,000 ha licence in Mumbwa held by Jubilee” claim originates. However, this is not a licence held directly by Jubilee itself according to regulatory records, but rather described through a third-party partner’s licence that Jubilee is associated with via partnership.

Morning. If the AI-based searches are incorrect, then I apologise. Let us rather wait for clarity and please update me once the exact locations of Jubilee’s exploration licences in Zambia are confirmed, including the precise positions of the Governor Mine and Molefe Mine.

Much of the market appears to speculate on future profits and to accept Jubilee’s statements largely at face value. However, the company has a track record of missing targets and changing strategic direction, which raises legitimate concerns.

One example is the stated ambition of 25,000 tonnes of copper cathode production. This is difficult to reconcile with the fact that Sable’s maximum capacity is approximately 16,000 tonnes per annum, and that there appears to be limited scope for further expansion at Sable. This raises a fundamental question: how does Jubilee intend to bridge this gap, and why was this not clearly addressed in the stated investment horizon?

The situation becomes even less clear when considering the earlier ambition of 50,000 tonnes per annum. Where will the additional feedstock, processing capacity and capital come from to support such production levels? At present, this is not adequately explained.

With hindsight, the South African asset sale now appears to have been a poor transaction, particularly as what was considered a low-probability downside scenario has effectively materialised. Conversely, the anticipated upside — including a meaningful recovery in chrome prices — has yet to occur.

PGM profits, by contrast, are readily modelled, and Jubilee is best placed to provide clarity. Investors should be informed of the financial impact if the transaction is concluded by 31 December, and of how much shareholder value has effectively been lost.

In the meantime, some commentators continue to promote the story by repeatedly quoting commodity prices and speculating about FY2026 copper production and profits, which in my view are likely to be negligible. FY2027 may reach around 10,000 tonnes of copper, but this will depend entirely on successful capacity expansion, which to date appears slow, with licensing prioritised over execution.

Good luck with price / production / strategey, etc. predictions without AI! AI models workout where to drill..

Why should the sale deal not be re negotiated? The PGM profits are there! Jubilee is acting of the interest of shareholders or cozy self enriching's deals

Goteal, teaser! You read my green box post! Am I a liar?!

Let me get to this tomorrow. I used gemini AI and this is much better than the other AIs I have used. However, you will not find the information inmmediately and must query many times and many things.It took many the whole day to find something useful, reliable. They (AI) still make a lot of errors. The most revealing facts was that Jubilee got a 25000 ha block for exploration in Mbumbwa district adjacent to Sinomine Kitumba Mine, and on a very good spot. Got all the details. However, Jubilee is jubilee and never transparent in the communication. A real challenge. I have been searching for months for Molefe area mining licenses, and also to get more info from Project G. I enjoy the exercise because it keeps me mentally busy. I think they mislead us all when announcing 25,000 hectares exploration licence block at the greater molefe area - in Mumbwa District!

I believe this:

"Jubilee’s stated plan (per November 27, 2025, filings) is to "merge the satellite pits into one large open-pit operation." * Instead of having two small "islands" (Molefe and Project G), they are drilling the 12 km gap to prove it is all one continuous "reef."

If the drills confirm this, they will apply to convert the Exploration License for the gap into a Large-Scale Mining License (LML), turning the whole corridor into one massive industrial site. ( it is crowded in the area and east of them they got the competitor)."

I will slow down, as my holiday start with the kids and grandchild. Xmas was lovely: morning church, followed by midday meal with and when all passed out or fell asleep I became bit active (old and usual style before retirement). Hope that Jubilee forget to request approval from SARB and renominate the deal. That is financial leadership!

It is useful to take the time to research a bit more about the JV announcements with Galileo t0 gain a better understanding of the underlying structure.

The JV between Jubilee and Galileo relates specifically to exploration rights (LELs) over an area north of Molefe and south of Project G, as well as the 12 km corridor between Molefe and the Governor Mine. Project G is a relatively small operation with two concentrators., one of which has been upgraded and is expected to be completed by the end of Q3 FY2026, in line with the Sable upgrade (second unit). Once both concentrators are operational, targeted production is expected to reach approximately 300 tonnes of copper per month. Currently only 1 concentrator is in operation.

The Governor Mine is located roughly 21 km north of Chibombo and 12km south of Molefe Mine.

Molefe itself comprises two mining licences covering a total area of approximately 788 hectares.

Should copper be identified within the licensed exploration area, the logical next step would be to apply for mining licences, most likely in areas currently worked by small-scale or artisanal miners.

Let us hope the find large and copper rich structure underground at Molefe and even more in the Molefe - Governer mine axis or around them.

Seis,

Our distinguishing value proposition is our net positive impact on all stakeholders and the environment by reducing the historical footprint of surface waste, processing copper, chrome, PGMs, cobalt, lead, zinc and vanadium.

Revenue for the year from continuing operations was US$15.18 million (2024: US$205.40 million). Revenue from continuing operations in 2025 has been derived from the sale of copper cathodes, copper concentrate, copper tailings and cobalt

Jubilee has secured rights to process over 300Mt of copper and cobalt-containing tailings in Zambia for consideration of US$14.6 million (FY2024: US$14.1 million).

Jubilee entered into various joint venture (JV) agreements to secure rights to process over 260Mt of copper and cobalt-containing tailings in Zambia. In the Kitwe region, Jubilee owns an 80.75% beneficial interest in the TD52 tailings dam portion of the overall project. TD52 holds the highest contained copper and cobalt within the larger copper tailings resource at 0.7% copper and 0.08% cobalt.

Jubilee has secured rights to process over 300Mt of copper and cobalt-containing tailings in Zambia for consideration of US$14.6 million (FY2024: US$14.1 million)

Jubilee successfully concluded a copper tailings transaction to secure the rights to an additional approximately 115Mt of copper and cobalt-containing surface tailings in Zambia (the tailings).

The agreement secures Jubilee the exclusive right to process the approximately 115Mt of copper-containing tailings through the implementation of a copper and cobalt processing facility (the project).

Segment information is presented as follows: • Copper and cobalt – the processing of copper- and cobalt-containing materials

Word search - cobalt. (and the strategy you referred to)

Bottomsup, I read the RNS and subsequent updates carefully and cross-checked the references where IA points to supporting detail. The most interesting discovery was that the 25,000-hectare licence area marketed under Molefe is in fact on the other side of the asset swap, located around Sinomine’s Kitumba project, rather than in or around the Molefe Mine itself.

This area is geographically distant and would logically be positioned to utilise Sinomine’s existing or future facilities, potentially by supplying ROM material should anything of significance be discovered. It is remarkable how this was announced in a way that could easily lead investors to believe the licence area was contiguous with, or adjacent to, Molefe.

My interpretation is that Galileo agreed to undertake the exploration, while the commercial deal is effectively underpinned by Molefe’s cash flows. At one point I asked whether this is simply exploration hope or whether there is already evidence of promising results. If Sinomine has identified sufficient resources to justify spending USD 600 million developing a large open-pit mine, then one would hope this is based on solid geological continuity, historic data and supporting studies, rather than speculation alone.

Naturally, this remains conjecture, but it would make for a very good AGM discussion point.

A broader question also arises: what has Jubilee learned over the last ten years? When will investors be rewarded more directly, and when will the company refrain from reinvesting virtually all profits into ever larger and newer projects, rather than allowing meaningful returns to flow through?

For reference, see the RNS and scroll down to Pillar 2 – Molefe, https://senspdf.jse.co.za/documents/SENS_20251006_S511402.pdf

50ktpm is for LWP according to me.

Geater Molefe area; AI assist us -For the 25,000 Ha Mumbwa Block (near Sinomine): The Kafue River is SOUTH of the license. Sinomine (Kitumba) is located in the hills about 40km north of the river. The 25,000-hectare Jubilee/Galileo block sits just south and west of the Sinomine fence, placing it between the mine and the river. Approximate 40km from Mubwa town. So this is marketed as adjacent nearby the Molefe area (obvious is it not). It creates a better understanding how the profits or partial profits for Molefe will be used to fund exploration of this block through Galileo. Priorities should be produce copper as fast as possible from Molefe and start another project once this produces significant and sustainable profits. What goes through your head which licences they will obtain and like to the greater Governor mine.

Large Scale IOCG" potential near Mumbwa (the 25k Ha block). Jubilee is effectively using the "Molefe" brand to make their small Kabwe mine sound like it is part of the massive Mumbwa copper-gold rush....License 27715-HQ-LEL.

Yes, they should have two modular units operational. Current mining adds around 90,000 tonnes per month of low-grade material, or slightly more than 1 million tonnes per annum. It is therefore straightforward to calculate what is required to keep pace with mining capacity.

Each modular unit processes 30,000 tonnes per month, implying that two units would be required initially. However, the first implemented unit at Molefe is estimated to deliver an additional ~120 tonnes per month of copper units, increasing total output to approximately 320 tonnes per month of refined copper before further expansion. This effectively points to the need for three modular units.

If the mine produces slightly more than 1 million tonnes per annum, three units would be well matched, particularly if the mine life exceeds eight years. At an estimated cost of USD 9 million per unit and annual production of approximately 1,440 tonnes of copper, the payback period would be less than two years.

Jubilee appears to be prioritising exploration of potentially promising geographical areas. The 25,000-hectare licence block, somewhat confusingly referred to as the greater Molefe area, is located around the Sinomine Kitumba Mine near Mumbwa. This is geographically distant from the Molefe Mine, situated in a different district approximately 160 km away. This suggests that Jubilee’s focus may be shifting away from metal processing towards ROM production, potentially to supply the Sinomine Kitumba Mine, a large open-pit operation where gold has also been identified in samples.

Morning residents. It is up to Jubilee to look after shareholders wealth and do the right thing.

1) Lapse, renegotiate, exit chrome, keep Inyoni and revaluate after 3 years (once tailing exhausted), but new profit sharing with One Chrome most likely an option

2) One Chrome of course to take over working capital (trade financing) as explained the why.

3) Benefit from secure profits for the next three years. Sale of processing plants $ 40m USD, first year profit PGM $50m + at least $5m Chrome (6m) + next 2 years with estimated $ 100m USD. Worse case scenario with 40% decline prices --> $ 60m USD. Jubilee has the info regarding % or rhodium in the tailing from Thutse and best positioned to work out a secure profit stream for PGM and taking advantage of the high PGM prices.

4) Happy New Year! 2026 could be a cracker year for Jubilee with a renegotiated sales deal.

Issue : Treatment of Chrome Ore Debt

-Jubilee’s current debt related to the South African chrome sale primarily consists of:

-Bank financing for ROM ore: ~$38 million

-Short-term loans for trucking to ports: ~$12 million

-Finance lease payments for modular chrome units: ~$6.8 million

While classified as debt on the balance sheet, this expenditure represents purchased ore inventory that has not yet been sold. This inventory carries future profit potential once processed and sold.

As such, the apparent debt does not reflect a permanent cash outflow, and a case can be made to attribute a profit margin to this inventory.

If Jubilee does not submit by 31 December 2025, the deal effectively does not proceed, giving Jubilee the option to cancel or renegotiate.

That is what I recommend:

1. Sale of Chrome Processing Units (disinvest as proposed)

Proposed sale proceeds: $40 million processing plants

Reduced by $15 million prepaid amount by One Chrome, resulting in net benefit of $25 million for Jubilee. Negotiation when this would be settled e.g. within 6 months.

This divestment will eliminate the “chrome headache” from Jubilee’s operations while retaining optionality for PGM processing.

2. Inyoni PGM Plant – Profit Stream (retain the inyoni processing unit)

Jubilee will retain the Inyoni PGM processing plant, securing a reliable profit stream.

Estimated profits: First six months: PGM ~$25m; Chrome ~$5m and next six months $ 25m

Full-year projections: Year 1: ~$80m ($ 50m profit PGM, $ 5m Chrome profit, $ 25m sale profit); Year 2: ~$50m PGM profit; Year 3: ~$50m profit (most likely more, and simplified + reduced profits slightly from previous overview and of course Jubilee is in position to fine tune, but this is with reduced rhodium content.

Remaining tailings (~1.9 million tonnes) have already been purchased, awaiting processing, ensuring predictable cash flows.

A profit-sharing arrangement with One Chrome may be negotiated for tailings derived from their chrome production post-1 January 2026.

3. Strategic Rationale

Delaying final submission to SARB allows Jubilee to renegotiate the transaction, retaining Inyoni and its secured PGM income, while maintaining flexibility on chrome assets.

Retaining Inyoni ensures minimum guaranteed profit (~$150m over three years), likely more depending on rhodium concentration and market prices.

Sale of the chrome units delivers immediate net benefit (~$25m) and simplifies operations.

Copper operations are expected to remain close to break-even in FY 2026, particularly after capital expenditure for expansion is included. PGM profits will therefore be critical to fund growth projects, including in Zambia.

5. Investor Confidence and Strategic Outcome

Reworking the One Chrome sale while retaining Inyoni aligns with shareholder value creation, ensures a secure cash flow, and mitigates operational risk associated with chrome.

First-year PGM profits (~$80m) alone will reduce all net debt, strengthening the balance sheet and supporting further strategic investments.

Subsequent years (~$50m per annum) provide steady cash inflows, which are expected to fund ongoing operations and expansion initiatives, including the Zambian copper strategy.

Conclusion:

Maintaining Inyoni while partially divesting chrome operations, renegotiating profit-sharing arrangements, and carefully managing the timing of regulatory submission provides the most commercially prudent path. It ensures immediate and long-term value for shareholders, reduces operational complexity, and stabilises Jubilee’s cash flow to support strategic growth.

Apologies – and my sincere apologies as the message box did not allow me to include all the relevant information in my previous post.

I have worked through the potential PGM profit scenarios using varying rhodium concentrations of 8%, 10% and 12% over the next three years, together with a recommendation that Jubilee does not submit the transaction to the Reserve Bank for approval before or on 31 December 2025, thereby allowing the Company to cancel or, preferably, renegotiate the deal. Using a 10% rhodium assumption (which I believe is the most realistic), the projected PGM profit amounts to approximately USD 183 million over three years. This is based on retaining the Inyoni PGM processing plant, processing all remaining PGM-rich tailings estimated at 1.9 million tonnes, at a maximum throughput capacity of 620,000 tonnes per annum, equating to roughly three years of processing. Including chrome profit, this increases to approximately USD 188 million.

In addition:

Chrome profit for the first six months (July–December 2025) is estimated at approximately USD 5 million.

The sale of the chrome processing units could reasonably realise around USD 40 million, which should be reduced by the USD 15 million prepaid / upfront amount already received.

The proposal assumes that the Inyoni plant is sold to One Chrome after three years for a nominal amount of USD 1, enabling their desired vertical integration at that point.

It is likely that One Chrome would seek to share in profits from PGM-rich tailings generated from chrome production from 1 January 2026 onwards, which would be subject to negotiation with Jubilee.

From a funding perspective, business is business: refinancing should not be adversely affected, and any remaining trade finance debt is expected to reduce materially, although I am not yet certain how best to value this component precisely.

In summary:

USD 183m (PGM profits)

+ USD 5m (chrome profit)

+ USD 40m (chrome plant sale)

= USD 228 million

This compares very favourably with the USD 79 million audited present value of the current sale transaction. Left trade finance debt as it likely will be much less.

Importantly, the first year’s PGM profit alone should be sufficient to extinguish Jubilee’s debt, leaving the Company in a far stronger position. A renegotiated deal would therefore allow Jubilee to unlock substantially greater value, while accelerating and properly funding the Zambian copper strategy.