RE: CPI 5.1%15 Dec 2021 13:48
From todays Investment Chronicle: Inflation surge puts BoE inaction into stark relief.
"If you were angry the Bank of England didn’t raise interest rates last month, you’ll be absolutely livid they don’t do it again tomorrow. Inflation in the UK has surged to a decade-high 5.1 per cent, outpacing fairly steep expectations. Whilst the CPI figure is high the RPI, arguably a better test of the true costs to most consumers, surged to 7.1 per cent, the highest level in 30 years. Combine this with the fact job vacancies are at a record high 1.21m - evidence that the labour market is extremely hot - you have to wonder what on earth is stopping the Monetary Policy Committee from pulling the trigger. Of course the answer last month was they wanted more data on the labour market. Tomorrow it will be Omicron. There is always an excuse for inaction.
Even the IMF agrees. Yesterday it warned the Bank of England should not delay withdrawing pandemic-era support by raising rates as inflation is set to top 5.5 per cent next year. The fund urged the BoE to avoid ‘inaction bias’, which we might characterise and the kind of sit-on-your-hands-an-do-nothing complacency that seems to mark out Andrew Bailey’s tenure. The economy is strong, Omicron will be a passing fad, the employment market is tight and inflation is super strong – to not hike on Thursday would display a degree of lethargy and willful disregard for the facts that will hurt the economy and ordinary people. The Bank seems destined to suffer from this inaction bias and the inflation data only puts that into starker relief.
Nevertheless, even if the BoE does not hike tomorrow – and it still could – there is plenty of hawkish noises it can make about next year to help sterling gather itself off the floor. The pound ticked higher on the inflation report, with GBPUSD advancing to its highest since Friday – as suggested this week there are signs the sellers are cleared out for the time being and we could see a short-term reversal towards the middle of the channel, though the double hit of the Fed and BoE this week makes calling it a tough one."