Member Info for HarChris

You might not care about court cases but they are designed to stifle the JVs campaign in Zambia and to a degree that is the case, hence Anglo cares about court cases and what matters is what Anglo cares about not Mattk6 on LSE.

The September 10 date in the RNS should begin to draw a line "The inter partes hearing of the injunction application has now been scheduled for 10 September 2025, when the Company will have the opportunity to present all relevant facts and circumstances with the aim to secure ongoing injunctive relief after which the case can then proceed to the breach aspect of Arc's claim against MM and ZAMEX."

If like it seems Anglo are out in Zambia doing all the necessary preparation work and small scale drilling hopefully the legals can be all behind them soon with still time to drill hard into mid December.

‘ @chris what price did you sell and what was your average? Any regrets in selling - also what would it take for you to buy back in?’

______

The reason for the sell off was the leaked info from the AGM which showed an unhappy house behind the scenes and that low pour being revealed. I sold about 60% of my shares at 0.39p average, having been bought at an average of .75p so a near 50% haircut.

I kept the rest because the gold price backdrop could lead to a miracle here, or at least allow a solution that keeps GRL in the game and fighting a bit longer. But it’s too risky for me now to risking 100% of what I had left.

If you’re still fully in good luck but it’s best to know the facts rather than be sucked in by traders selfishly looking for a higher exit

It is a simple fact that net debt is $8m as of Dec 31st and will be higher now, with almost all of that due by the end of the year. That’s almost 2X mcap, due within four months.

They might find a solution but the ramping on here is far more dangerous than my downbeat but more balanced posting.

It is used to state the amount borrowed, 2000 troy ounces equating to $3m at the time. The terms never changed, it was never just a $3m fixed loan as if it was it would always just state the amount owed. It doesn't because it's always changing in monetary value, but the gold amount stays the same plus (besides the interest).

If you email the company they will 100% tell you that's the case, if they bother to reply.

Learn to read the accounts. As of Dec 31st NET debt was given as $8.1m and it's almost all CURRENT liabilities so needs to be repaid in 2025. The itnerims will show around $9.5m NET debt that needs repaying within three months as of interims release.

GRL are in dire straits and AIMSL dictates their future now.

In the 2022 FY results the gold loan is given as $2.9m

In the 2023 FY results the gold loan is given as $3.4m

In the latest financial results the gold loan is given as $5.99m, as of Dec 31st 2024.

I can understand why you think it's $1500 because of the wording but they are simply using that figure to state the amount of debt taken on initially in 2020, 2000 troy ounces of gold at a price of $1500.oz = $3m loan at time of agreement.

It is NOT a $3m fixed loan, otherwise it would literally be $3m of cash. It's a physical gold loan that varies with the gold price.

The next interims this month will show an even higher gold loan debt, 100%, mark my words.

There is no need to be so aggressive, it is you that seems panic however if I’ve got this wrong I will sincerely apologise. Give me an hour to go through the notes, I’m pretty sure you are wrong and that the change occurred after renegotiation of the loan last year.

Just as I will sincerely apologise if wrong I hope you have the grace to apologise if it turns out that it’s you that’s wrong.

‘ Looking back at the AGM update. The only real material change was the drop in gold produced (circa 225oz iirc)

Given that we’ve increased it in the last pour to 355oz the August negativity and panic was overdone. Think about it, if we can get to above 400oz in the next update we are sort of back to where we were!’

____________

If you want to see I’m genuine go back and read my posts from about March onwards. For me it was crucial that GRL saw improvement to the ~800 monthly ounces level by around now. Why? Because GRL absolutely needed to start making healthy profit and reducing the gold loan to open up the financing options by the end of the year, if the loan wasn’t able to be fully paid down from profits. Yes gold price has risen further so you can call that 800 above 700 if you like but the point remains the same, sitting there relying on a positive settlement when the debt is now £6m/$8.2m is gambling, not investing, and that’s why I’ve reduced and won’t buy more til there’s clarity over financing.

The gamble might pay off, who knows, but the odds aren’t in your favour.

'Where did you get £6m from the lock in price is $1500 oz'

____________________

There is no lock-in price, it is a gold loan that fluctuates with the gold price. GRL owe 2360 troy ounces of physical gold to AIMSL so unless they already have that gold sitting in the inventory they will have to buy it at market price to cover the loan (or agree cash based on market price).

It has always been the case that the gold price rise doesn't fully benefit GRL, well whilst it benefits them on the revenue side it is slightly counterbalanced by the increase in debt.

**** I can't remember the full details so it might be that the interest has a lock-in price making the total loan closer to £5m but it's certainly not all locked at $1500/oz unfortunately.

Is there an up-to-date figure for how many BRES shares Jangada currently holds?

What was it you called Wyn? A pullback to 54p before the next leg up? If so I assume you are thinking now’s the time to buy.

What is a possible scenario (and i'm starting to think likely) is that AIMSL essentially takes control of the company by taking all the shares in return for paying off the gold loan. This would require shareholder consent and be essentially a total restructuring but keep the company technically public. Say for example (and it would come at a discount if you've seen this play out before, i'm eing kind here) GRL issue 2B shares at 0.3p to AIMSL, that's £6m equal to the 2360 troy ounce debt (inc interest).

AIMSL then owns 2.25B/3B shares ie 75% of the company, install their own board members and then either at a later date take it private or sell the company if they've managed to see a turnaround at that point.

Obviously the restructuring could take many forms, more institutions joining, some form of debt/equity split etc

So CC said earlier this year that the 'starting pistol' is publication of satisfactory p1b data. Many months later, armed with significant p1b data that herself and management will be seeing in real time, starts speaking confidently of deals/partnerships with more to be revealed 'in the not too distant future', this time not mentioning publication of p1b data for such deals, yet you choose to ignore the latest developments over the older developments because the later developments don't fit your narrative that the time to buy is some time in the future rather than today.

You're fed up with 'incessant baseless ramping of deals tomorrow', others like myself are fed up with your know-it-all attitude based on highly selective information. Can you see that your own singular personal view is simply a subjective take on this bb ?

What interests me more is why you think your prediction is worth repeating so regularly? For example I think we'll either see it creep up into the 70s through Sept into Oct or right past that level if the third party deal/partnership that CC said 'more to come in the not too distant future' a few months ago, materialises.

Yet your prediction which is based on nothing more than mine (you instead doubt a deal will be made) is shared on here multiple times more often than mine. Simple narcissism?

Good question. I would assume 'not loads' but equally we got this in one of the last updates: 'The Company's existing cash resources and future contractual cash place the Company in a positive cash position into 2026. In addition, Management have been carefully managing the Company's cash resources since the start of the year, including cutting fee payments by up to 50% for board and management, which are expected to remain in place into 2026.'

Seeing as ARCM are due not too far off £1m from Avanti/Arc Nov payment as long as they can get through to there we will see the runway extended right into mid 2026 minimum.

What price now? Less, considerably less.

That offer, whether simply made informally or presented formally was probably a 20% premium to the share price at the time. It would have come after GRL had released numerous back-to-back increasing pours and was describing 1000 ounce target as being achieved in the very near term.

Five months on and the company are staring down the barrel of the 31st Dec debt maturity having failed to capitalise on four months of sky high gold price and have seen monthly production nearly halve vs the best month in H1. Any offer now would be taking advantage of GRLs fragility and would probably be .5p - I imagine is the acquirer had muscle and could pay AIMSL what they are owed AIMSL would probably vote for that .5p and everyone would see a 25% rise from current bid price.

What the traders miss (either intentionally or not) is that no one actually cares if they are buying avacta one day and selling it the next, not one iota. That stuff is simply part of the market dna but what gets their goat is the flip flop narrative they then choose to present on here, so much so that it often gives me a headache as I sit there thinking 'wait, weren't they highlighting a completely different case yesterday?'

It always conjures up the image of Boris Johnson and his position on Brexit. It's said that he had written a pro Remain piece for his Telegraph column and a Leave piece, only deciding two days before committing to the Leave side which one he was going to submit for publishing.

That's what we see here, a positive investment case and a list of counter arguments that are ready to be fired off the moment a switch in trading position occurs.

How is it a ludicrous ramp? I’ve personally stated since about November that interest will pick up here when we’re a good three months or so into 1b which means a deal ‘could be struck at any moment’. I never predicted exactly when or even if it definitely would happen but I’ve been consistent in saying that interest will pick up when we are at the stage where it’s perfectly possible to wake up to such news.

Six months into p1b is certainly that point.

My positive but less definitive posts are way, way less of a ramp than your definitive negative posts are a deramp.

Where did CC explicitly comment on her share price predictions? You mean when she said last year that future funding will be tied to 1b data and it caused a sell off? Well yeah it caused a sell off because investors took that to mean no major partnership news for at least 12 months.

Seeing as that 12 months has passed and a deal could be struck at any moment I think your repeated definitive statement re the share price, which in truth you have absolutely no idea like the rest of us, is dumb.

There are now two major risks which is why I won't add even at such a low level. One is what the lack of transparent communication means. Are they failing to inform because if they did it would cause an even bigger sell off (i.e serious operational issues which are difficult to troubleshoot)?

And two, it is not sensible to just assume that debt will be rolled over. Yes as I've stated AIMSL are unique as a creditor what with being the largest shareholder but they will act in their own best interest rather than the company's and that might not align with GRLs best interest. They have all the power and GRL management none.

As for an 'expanding producer' the jury is very much out. As a poster showed yesterday production has consistently decreased since 2022 on a fairly linear basis. Whilst there were signs in early 2025 of a U shaped recovery in production profile the last few months have been up there with some of the worst in 2024.

It's no exaggeration to say that if management had delivered as expected this year the share price could be 4p+ today, instead it's 0.4p and for me isn't even attractive at this level due to the very real insolvency risk. To be saying that at $3500/oz gold is crazy.

'No more SP rise until P1b results leaked. Hope we don’t have to wait until full results published in June. Longest P1 clinical trial in history '

________________

It's such a dumb comment because you seem to think it's only on news that you see share price appreciation. In fact, it's so very often the opposite, wealthier institutions build a position in the run up to news, traders tend to buy before the news and then sell on news.

Pretty sure you've been saying that same line above since the mid 30s. If this rises suddenly to 75p then drops back a bit you'll be trotting out the same tired line even though the share price is higher and higher.