Member Info for HarChris

Share price averaged about 3.25p in 2023 with ~1.2B shares so market cap averaged about £39m back then throughout the entire year. Today's £14m is therefore barely a third of what it was two years ago, a recovery back to 2023s average would see the share price rise 180%.

Good news re legal issues and drilling and ARCM will be in a far better position than it was in 2023, where key inflection points were still many years away.

The only hope here is that AIMSL being by far the largest holder AND the creditor will be looking for a solution that provides further time for GRL to turn things around. We’ve seen them renegotiate to Goldstone’s benefit previously and with the gold price so very strong they might again but they must really be running out of patience by now.

You're very childish. I was asked why my view had changed and I shared it. I still hold a position here but it’s smaller than it was and it’s also down 60% so in monetary terms my holding is now relatively small. But I won’t stay silent when I see such misinformation as has been spread on here today.

Like Nigel said this was risky at the start of the year but that risk has ratched up significantly now.

Mining is complicated but the question one starts to ask themselves is 'is it too complicated for this management team?'

We aren't talking early production teething problems, GRL begun production at Homase coming up to four years ago now. Operational issues are ever present.

The gold price over the past twelve months saved GRL. That's why I bought in heavily, GRL was priced to fail and yet here they were with gold surging past $3000/oz and a target that, if achieved, meant GRL would be incredibly profitable. And with three years of mining at Homase under their belt I thought GRL might well show consistent solid improvement this year. But they haven't. They are only (just about) surviving because the gold price backdrop is mindblowingly good. But still, they approach the end of the year with debts maturing that are far higher than the current mcap meaning that equity agreed via renegotiation will be extremely dilutive.

This situation could have been avoided with even averaging 550 ounces per month (barely 50% of target) through all of 2025, but it's clear that is no longer possible.

'CJ, I hope you realise how lucky you and your 'well informed' friends are that your 4 year 'certainty' of an investment in Ava6000 and STS got a last minute second throw of the dice to save the day (and your investment).'

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And are you unwilling to acknowledge that, equally, it's unlucky to see another treatment raise the bar at this stage and that in fact Avacta's 1a was designed to be broad enough to be able to pivot like they have? And also that with SGC pfs at just 3.5 months vs 8.5 months?

'All good imo and don’t understand why you have become chief bear in recent weeks versus previously the chief champion?'

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I'm more than happy to explain. I always, always stated through the first quarter of 2025 and well into second quarter that this was a binary bet. I stated repeatedly that this year was absolutely crucial, that from June onwards once they've entered pit 1 (April stated transition imminent) that we needed to see at least closer to the 1000 ounce target. I also stated that there was still plenty of time, and as long as it happens by August/September time (1000 ounces or very close to) then shareholders will be on the right side of that binary bet and we'll all be very well remunerated and rewarded.

We're in September now and having to celebrate a pour in the 300s because that's the crumbs we are left with.

Based on true objective reality it's a failure and I see more pain in the near term now and a very real risk of eventually losing 100% of what I still hold. But there's still a chance of recovery further down the road so I'm sticking with what I have left.

Cyber we'd all be delighted with that obviously. But there target was 1000 ounces per month 'in the coming months' as of January, February, March etc and only twice did they even get half way to that target and now they are back at a third of that target.

Missing targets by a country mile and then subtly downgrading targets before repeating the cycle is the story of GRL up until now. I hope it eventually changes for my now reduced and smaller holding so I get my money back but history doesn't look kind on Emma and GRL.

It's probably the case that STS and its heterogeneity between each patient means management can't at this stage (start of 1b) be as certain that the clinical results will show a clear improvement vs standard Dox, sure. But it doesn't mean it won't, just that they are more sure of SGC providing the sort of data necessary to progress and fund the next stage of development.

Isn't the point that Dox really isn't that effective against STS so even if with AVA6000 'Dox behaves like Dox' the results could still be very mixed? It very much depends patient to patient?

28j, that's simply wrong. The periods in which they report are always at least four weeks, up to six weeks. There is no way they have just reported a 17 day pour and not explained that. When things are poorly explained it's because they don't want to explain them for obvious reasons.

That’s true if you only compare those months but the previous month was extreme in how poor it was. In fact the trajectory is still negative.

January- 522

February - 599

That’s how we started the year. And we know average pour through 2025 up until 18th June was 468 dore ounces per month.

So the trend is firmly negative as I said but they’re still alive without raising as of today still so that’s something.

They are probably making steady and modest profit at this level but what a wasted opportunity this is with gold flying so high and the debt maturity and need for renegotiation looming.

If they had even just managed 600 dore ounces per month, 40% below target, they’d be raking it in right now.

They live to fight another day all the whilst they are self funding operations but without a major uptick in production in the coming months (and the commentary doesn’t sound like that’s likely) then renegotiation will come with a cost to current shareholders.

I understand also where you're coming from Tiger and I suppose if you're a trader that is willing to take on the most risk to make the biggest returns during a commodity bull market then fair enough, there might be better bets than ATM and its impending tin profits.

The rest of us may look at it differently. We all know just how much potential there is across Uis, Lithium Ridge and Brandberg West. More recently the risk has been the rising debt position and that's why this tin price move is so crucial, especially as it comes at a time where the recent switch in focus to tin (~12 months ago) is about to bear fruit. So Andrada not only looks to turn profitable for the first time but to do it with a doubling of tin output.

What looks likely with tin is that the price will remain relatively high long term due to the favourable supply side dynamics and the healthy demand side outlook. With tin at Uis as the bedrock what always remains is unquantifiable blue sky upside from the lithium at Uis, the lithium at lithium ridge which is already being developed in partnership with the world's largest lithium producer in SQM plus the potential of the copper and tungsten at Brandberg West with I imagine exploration being advanced and fast tracked once more cash is flowing through the business.

There really is a compelling case for many, many multiples from here over the coming years.

EBITDA-positive is a major step in the right direction.

If this jig plant leads to a doubling of tin production near term as is being targeted that will bring huge economies of scale + a 5.7% decrease per tonne royalty to Orion - will see AISC closer to $20k/t and make Andrada highly cash generative assuming the tin price continues to perform like it has been.

This is a turning point.

Wrong I'd say, hard to see anything but a share price implosion as this financing has shown there's absolutely no appetite at anywhere near the prevailing market price unfortunately..

To go from a 3.2p placing to issuing (yes to be drawn down at a later date) billions of shares at a fraction of a penny is awful.

We can now truly look forward to ESMO and the SGC 1b data release in q4 without any hurdles in the way of the share price - time for this to head towards a pound a share.

Admittedly it’s all a bit confusing with the consolidation that’s going on… also notice they are hoping to raise £10m a little further down the line.

Certainly be interesting to see how this opens up tomorrow.

Yes. There were 490m shares in total and now they’re about to issue 2.33 billion more shares. For a couple of £m. It’s insane.

Random big buys happen but right now, in a risky stock that totally depends on finalising doubtful financing? That stinks of inside trading (and i'm all for it!)

They clearly stated it wouldn’t be at ~1.4p but still assumed a significant discount meant something like 25%, not well over 90%.

Sorry to all holders, that’s ridiculous.

Thanks, I’m sure we’d all appreciate those answers when you get them Kaeren!

Can’t answer your questions but interesting watching GEX that you mentioned, with news built upon news and then a placing announced just now. Glad we here are well funded and not needing to play the ‘pump for placing’ game.