RE: All good bar one10 Sep 2025 19:55
Don’t get me wrong, both of you, with gold so high there are possible routes out of this but there’s definitely no meaningful recovery to be had until dent is renegotiated and/or production shows a genuine improvement.
Let’s imagine AIMS just rolls it over at 14% (clearly they’ll demand more than this but for best case hypothesis) - loan is now around 2500 troy ounces.
I imagine group break even at around 300 troy ounces but more capex is needed for production ramp up. So let’s call it 450 troy ounces group break even next year.
To pay down anything we’ll need to be seeing around 600 dore ounces per month, a near doubling from here. But that would still be very marginal profit. So 700+ dore per month to start taking little nibbles out of the debt. It’s possible but it relies on a whole host of factors which make holding right now at 0.45p very poor from a risk/reward perspective.
And if gold price suddenly starts retracing significantly (I’m not expecting it but it’s always possible) then it’s goodnight.
Merely sharing my thoughts to counteract the mindless ramping on here (not you two).