Member Info for HarChris

You don't remember my prediction a few months back in which you replied to? So far since Avacta is up 92% and MATD down 40%. I feel it was a good call!

It's more that you were so sure that you had picked a winner (MATD) and we had picked a loser (AVCT) and the conviction you had of that. Others recognise the irony even if you don't.

The £5m subscription in June alongside this $37k tin price puts all capex and working capital issues to bed for now, so at the very least a significant derisking in the short-medium term.

What we need for major upside is the announcement of second jig plant commissioning being complete and that the higher grade ore from Goantagab is now being processed. Get those updates alongside such high tin price and we're off to the races.

Do you remember my prediction three months ago Thorn, that ironically after years of negativity on here AVCT was going to save you from your deep MATD losses? Looking more and more likely!

The sell price hasn’t exceeded 64p at any point this week let alone being able to sell huge volume at over 64p. It’s a buy.

Antibacterial, there’s a case for a cheap buyout here but the question is at what price? The buyer needs to cover the $9m debt to AIMSL so for example if they were to offer .8p a share they’d be paying $10m for the buy out plus $9m to cover the debt ie $19m.

Possible I suppose but very rare to see such a distressed company be bought out at a premium.

As to your comment greyw, well, because some wealthy traders take big risks. It’s possible that GRL suddenly announce a much better monthly production figure in the coming weeks and share price pulls to a penny. I personally doubt it but those buying today obviously feel differently.

Possible but very rare to

‘pow is not alone in trading at a massive discount to nav’

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Sure but they are alone (/ it’s at least very rare) to trade below cash in bank. Valuing assets is somewhat subjective but a £ is a £.

Net asset value here must be about £30 now, so almost double the mcap.

For a company like JAN even if Bres goes on to double in short order to 10p it’ll arguably have still been far better for them to sell their BRES holding at 5p and progress their plans in this gold bull market.

Selling the BRES holding in one fell swoop definitely benefits BRES and will likely end up being auspicious for JAN too.

I can only apologise for introducing to this share CLSK! I was right at the time that gold was the sector to be in and the risk/reward looked excellent here but there’s been failure on a massive scale. If they had delivered anywhere close to what management (see Emma) confidently claimed the share price would be 4p+ but that’s the risk with turnaround plays. There’s always a reason they struggled in the past and some eventually get it right and multibag and others end up in the graveyard.

Hard to lose money in the gold sector this year but GRL is one of only a few. Frustratingly I sold some winners to double down on GRL a few months back and those winners went on to double again whilst GRL more than halved. C’est la vie!

I am always fair, always balanced. I have said for weeks that GRL could well pump alongside this gold rally. It could pump hard, it might even support a raise at a higher price. But have no doubt that the risk is super high and they are nearing the stage where they can’t pay their maturing debts and may well default.

It’s already looking like the case. The pump to 0.6p (could well have gone much higher) and then reality kicking in that, fundamentally speaking at least, even $5k gold price doesn’t save GRL from potential insolvency come Dec 31st.

If you see this before you do let me warn you that you are going to lose a lot of money in the stock market if you ignore posters that correct your inaccuracies. A lot.

All the very best to you too!

You might just be inexperienced but there's nothing more ignorant in investing than ignoring a debt that is soon maturing that cannot be repaid.

Creditors are not altruistic, they do whatever is in their best interest. GRL owes, on Dec 31st, 2500 troy ounces of gold to AIMSL. An amount now valued at over $9m. They do not have this, not even close. They would not have this next Dec 31st either, not a chance. Let alone another role over meaning 2850 troy ounces.

The only debate is over what comes next. Some on here think AIMSL will just roll over, others like me think they will essentially wipe out current shareholders in a restructuring.

It’s strange for a gold stock to suddenly tank 20% in this environment. I imagine it’s a placing this week otherwise, if it drops anymore, an RNS to state that management sees no reason for such a fall.

I have previously spoken to management. I can guarantee you, 100%, without question, that the gold loan is physical gold and hence the price of gold as of Dec 31st will be what’s owed. It’s not $1500/oz, that’s just the figure given to show that initially $3m was borrowed.

It’s 2500 troy ounce total. 2500 x 3800 =$9.5m

In the accounts it’s under borrowings, $8.2m. Gold price was much lower a few months back and that’s where you get your figure.

Genuinely, if you think the loan is much less how do you get to $8.2m short term debt that’s in the accounts? Do please show your working.

Come on, it’s not that difficult. Just go to the current liabilities and you’ll find it in there, it was valued at something like $8m as of June 30th and now will be about $8.85m. If you’re confused why the figure is similar it’s because the CLN was converted into shares in January, I think that was £3m. So short term debt has more or less stayed still year on year because the large gold loan increase is counteracted by the CLN removal. But it’s now all due in just three months time.

It’s basic reading of the accounts.

No, Mike had 2.99% of the company when he stepped down as a director so all we know is he didn’t add to his holding after leaving the board.

GLR, a couple of hour’s research would answer a lot of your questions. AIMSL already has directors appointed, they are by the largest shareholder and they already essentially control the company. The question is what do they do next? GRL have no chance of paying back 2512 troy ounces, that’s just shy of 3000 dore ounces. They barely produce that per year let alone generate enough to be able to have that much gold as profit.

GRL need meaningful funding to get to the point of increasing funding on top of the near $9m gold loan debt. No other lender will go near this so it’s going to totally rest of renegotiation over the next few months.

I now don’t see a chance in hell of shareholders being left with anything but we’ll see soon.

Yes GLR that’s the case, GRL are essentially insolvent.

Holders are taking comfort that AIMSL are the largest shareholder and have on numerous occasions extended the loan with interest but I think this is a step too far with the price of gold where it is and management’s long standing history of poor execution.

I suspect AIMSL forces through a restructuring via shares at a massive discount giving them 95%+ of the company and taking it private.

Uis is a multi-mineral mine that would see maximum benefit from processing the lithium at scale alongside, as the tin ore is relatively low grade. Having said that the high aisc is due to other factors such as the large Orion royalty, the lack of scale and optimisation issues which are being addressed with the continuous improvement plan. Having secured the high grade ore from Goantagab too by the start of 2026 we could be looking at more than double the output with ~20% lower overall costs, meaning a highly profitable tin operation.

This is a good time to see the tin market with such supply issues for Andrada shareholders.

If part funded by a third party deal with their own warhead and part funded by equity at a reasonable valuation (say 80p / £330m valuation) then the path for share price to move will be clear right through to TNBC data and early 6103 data .

It can be majority equity-based funding and still set us up and be positive both short term and medium term.