Member Info for HarChris

Avoiding leverage is sound advice but your message is probably reaching five or six people on here. The crypto world isn't listening, the moment BTC pumps to new all time highs again with hope of this cycle peaking at $200k all those crypto bros will be rushing to leveraged plays to make the most of it.

I believe in my strategy and am happy with the risk buying more this close to NAV. If it doesn't pay off fine but that won't be known for a little while longer.

It's the others acting like they know what's going to happen, that SWC buyers will now all buy ETFs instead and SWC will start trading rationally more or less in line with bitcoin. All I've said is I think that's nonsense and highly unlikely.

Saying I think volatility will continue here for some time to come is much more broad than what the others are claiming.

In deep?! I just bought the other day and have an average 10% above current price. I’m fine!

That's irrelevant, it'll be largely traders taken a punt on a quick profit and no way can you trust the buys and sells with share price action like today.

The takeaway is that the long awaited PFS was released and it caused a 45% crash in the share price. And it's also worth noting it's based on $8.02/lb pentoxide in 2028 and over $9/lb in 2030. Sure that's possible but it's well below the current ~$4.50/lb in Europe/China and I think closer to $5/lb in the states.

I agree, it’s a leveraged play on the BTC price. You won’t find me arguing against it being a ponzi but it’s one that isn’t fizzling out yet, it’s just secured £10m of additional investment. At £1. It now has $305m in BTC as a downside hedge to prevent sentiment ever reversing too much.

We wait to see if it will ever go on a crazy run again but my point is anyone that thinks that a share like this will suddenly start trading completely rationally in line with bitcoin is kidding themselves.

I genuinely find it amazing that you think you know what’s going to happen to a company that listed five months ago with virtually no assets and has managed to accumulate 2650 BTC / $310m in that short space of time. That you think logic and reason is going to play out from here on out.

That’s just not realistic… if this is a ponzi there’s a hell of a lot more to play out before it begins to fizzle out.

And by lower risk I mean SWC will never fall much below NAV. Back in June buying shares at £5 when NAV was something like 30p was much higher risk, the potential downside was colossal but now it's almost at NAV the downside risk aligns with the same downside risk as buying an ETF ie bitcoin falling... but if sentiment were to return to treasury companies the UK leading treasury will far outpace an ETF to the upside.

We agree then, great. The rise of 120% whilst the cash runway shortens and shortens is a visible sign that the market believes the company is in total control of the funding situation. There is no expectation of a panicked discounted placin even given the past… And yes like you say the share price will probably remain roughly around this level until that belief is translated into proof but the signs are promising. And it should be very soon.

SWC have managed to accumulate bitcoin off the back of investors buying into placings at £2.90 a share, at £3.27 a share, at £2.95 a share etc and you’re now being offered shares in this relatively lower risk business now at 85p a share.

The UK leading treasury company will almost certainly trade at a huge premium to NAV once again when sentiment returns so if you’re bullish on bitcoin this is an opportunity to accumulate whilst sentiment is in the dumps and people tell you it’ll never recover for x, y or z. It almost certainly will.

This was trading happily around the 0.32p mark for a good few weeks in September and only didn't go higher because the market knew full well that some sort of raise was coming. Since, gold has pushed on to even more unbelievable highs and funding is in place through the acquisition to start benefiting from that sky high gold price by production near term and yet the share price sits at just 0.21p. That's an opportunity with a clear 50%+ move to come if the news we're hoping for lands in the coming weeks and months.

‘Chris, every company in the world will tell you funding is not a problem. You do get that?’

_______

Avacta have known for over a year that funding lasted to ~q1 2026 at best. This is a management team that genuinely cares about the business, about what it does/is aiming to do, for revolutionising cancer therapeutics. There is absolutely no way that Christina would have risked leaving it till now to secure funding if they weren’t absolutely confident in their strategy. There is no way she would risk a calamity that meant funding fell through and the programmes were forced to be put on hiatus etc. Nothing is certain, 100%, but you put it all together, the consistently more confident commentary, Richard’s appointment, the £13m new clause etc and it screams ‘all is in hand’’ much more than Alastair simply saying not to worry a couple of times.

And you ignored my point about the market. Just look at a fellow small cap pharma company that’s running out of cash and needing to raise around the same time, AGL, you know them… what’s happened to the share price over the same period??? It’s fallen 70% over the past three months whilst Avacta has risen 130%. Listen to the market.

Uranium is higher vs when NEO was suspended and gold has absolutely surged… in no world ‘will everyone sell up when it relists’ although it’s tough to call whether it’s going higher or lower next without knowing what other news comes before now and relist.

And my point was that those following closely will have known that H2 was when the catalysts were signposted for and combined with Richard Hughes’ appointment would have seen 30p back then as the ultimate opportunity to increase stake. I doubt I was alone. Not everyone but the savvy ones with funds to do it with.

Your whole narrative is based around the funding being more important than the science and yet when reasonable reasons are given for why the funding is likely all in hand you continue to write long tautological replies to dismiss such reasonable reasons.

'By buying ahead of a known fund raise , but not knowing how those new funds will be obtained is a higher risk than waiting to see how it is completed.'

No harm in choosing yourself to be cautious but such cautiousness led you to start talking up the chance of a 10p placing when the share price was 30p. What's inconsistent with you is that the recent price action screams 'the market is not concerned about funding and wants to be in ahead of it' but because you aren't following the market here you are suggesting perhaps one should do otherwise.

''It just comes down to risk. The SP is in fact in my experience, a very good indicator of the where any company is.''

Let's be honest, if the share price was tumbling now you'd definitely be saying 'the market is telling us to wait for funding' yet we have a 32% rise in a month and well over 100% appreciation over three months. How much more appreciation is necessary for there to be no red flag? I'd say 72p from 30p in short order is a big positive signal personally.

Absolutely Wyn but it’s why long term holders / those following closely have had an advantage this time, they’ve bought in heavily in recent months when outsiders would assume to sell and sit on the sidelines til funding is sorted.

Sure it might look like we’ve been here before but:

(i) there’s two further years of progress

(ii) we have a CEO who watched what happened to the last CEO that failed to deliver on his ‘no need to worry about finances’ rhetoric.

(iii) Christina has had a strategy in place for over a year which meant financing was always going to be tied to data and come in H2 and likely Q4. There’s no delays / last min panic here

(iv) Richard Hughes. We have a finance specialist whose sole focus will be on sorting funding on the best possible terms. And he’s been in post long enough to have a major impact.

Mr Market already knew, hence the retrace to 25p. Can’t see there being much further downside from there.

Just the $520m of capex to raise then!

If bitcoin continues to steadily rise back up into tomorrow’s open ($108.5k low back to $113.5k now) i’d actually expect that momentum to bring buyers in here, rather than sellers.

Is Shishir involved in the coup?

Https://www.energyconnects.com/news/renewables/2025/october/china-s-new-weapon-in-us-trade-talks-batteries/