Member Info for HarChris

Well I think it’s a shi* analogy.

Other PIs, high NWIs & institutions coughed up considerable cash at a MNAV of 8, 7, 6, 5 etc , I decided to buy in at an mNAV of ~1.15 all the way down to sub 1.

I think that will generate a healthy return given more time.

They all knew it was illogical at the time too.

It might happen again it might not.

Most bitcoin related companies go through long spells that have them looking like zombie businesses before BTC takes off again and the related supposedly zombie businesses taking off with it.

SWC didn’t rise thousands of percent because investors saw it as safer than buying bitcoin directly, they bought it simply because it was appreciating and had the volume to justify further and further rises.

With 2650 BTC on the balance sheet SWC is going nowhere, there is plenty of time to come up with a new strategy and plenty of potential to leverage up hard once BTC eventually takes off again which might just happen with some of those $trillions in gold rotating into it.

But more importantly with the share price as low as 13p you were saying that the timelines will be missed (correct) and the share price will tank.

Nobody investing in HEX at any point since IPO will be in the red so your caution to shareholders won’t have helped anyone.

There is no incentive for warrant holders to execute until sentiment is much stronger in reference to those saying early next year 95m warrants will be executed.

Warrant holders will likely have a decent holding alongside so if sentiment and volume was poor in April 2026 there’s no incentive to execute the warrants then that signals a big sell off, they have two years from that point and a lot can change in that time.

I’ll repeat for those twisting my words, no incentive to execute warrants at the first opportunity, for all we know they won’t be executed til 2027 or 2028. That’s a long way away and a then problem not a now problem.

‘HarChris, To suggest that there's no incentive for the pre-IPO warrant holders to exercise their warrants flies in the face of common sense. ‘

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That’s because, quite obviously, I didn’t say that.

Next year’s results need to be filed by 31st Jan.

ESMO may well be a catalyst but it’s not powerful enough to raise the share price over the weekend.

There is available no incentive for the warrant holders to execute until sentiment is far stronger. It will happen, between now and April 28, however pessimistic some may be today. Two months is a long time for a company like this, let alone two and a half years.

Those on the sidelines will mention the warrants at every opportunity but when sentiment turns it’ll be drowned out and most likely those involved in the narrative building will be back in anyway so won’t even need to be drowned out.

I think you make a fair point, the market still seems doubtful that ECR will ever actually progress from busybodies with ideas to delivering on any of the ton of projects that they’ve talked up over the past few years.

However committing to Q4 timelines when we’re already in Q4 is very positive. Add in the new appointments and Mike’s directorship and I start to think this time it’s actually going to happen and soon. Especially with a gold price that actually takes some skill to fail against!

No denying that I jumped in a bit early and that those calling for the 50s have been right, helped by a retrace in BTC. I stand by my below post though, that certain posters want you to be solely focused on the warrants when in reality they are an issue for 12 - 30 months time, in other words a lifetime in SWC world.

It’s not early next year, it’s whenever they execute over a two year period from q2 next year and will be drip fed into the market over time to maximise returns.

I’d prefer if there weren’t 2.5p warrants to be executed in the future but the narrative on here is pure unadulterated scaremongering.

'POG is going nuts at the moment. I remember someone excitedly posted that 500 oz per month was $12M a year, at 230 oz per month and gold at $4330 is now almost that.'

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It was probably me but it was supposed to pay down the gold loan. Instead none of the gold loan has been paid down so it's now going to cost GRL more than double what it did, not including 14% interest that's been applied, with the total amount due heading towards $11m.

There was virtually no cash generation in H1 and now production appears to be sliding which offsets the rising gold price. If GRL could even post an improved pour or two before Dec 31st it would hugely improve the outlook but we're now 8 and a half weeks since the Aug 18th pour and company have gone silent again. Are they burying good news? Well I struggle to understand why if so.

After hours today I reckon.

It was financed through a placing a few weeks ago.

Will they need some additional cash to reach full production at BM sometime later in 2026? Probably but we're at the stage where that's no longer a definite and there will be growing optionality in terms of funding if Raglan ends up generating revenue before the current cash runs out around March/April 2026, which it sounds like from this update.

I've often been a critic of ECR but at barely £5m mcap now even factoring in all the new shares there's clearly tons of upside to be had from the combination of Raglan/Blue Mountain production, Lolworth potential and Creswick JV in a gold environment such as this.

I like how Paolo refused to focus on the gold backdrop, instead pointing out that they are controlling what they can control and expect to build an operation that can be cash generative in all gold environments - if Paranaita can be healthily profitable at $2k/oz gold then there's oodles of margin and leeway at $4300/oz!

The perpetual negative types are going to get drowned out with production on the horizon and gold at $4300/oz. This set up couldn’t be any better.

GRL was trading around 13.5p before first gold pour in December 2021 based on a target of 25000 ounces production per year.

The warrant holders will always be in the money so they will bide their time to execute, no need to hurt the share price which would mean an improved backdrop where there’s high volume and lots of buyers to sell into. That’s not a concern for holders as it means better times and that could be over 2 years away. But let’s factor it in anyway:

95m shares takes us to 395m shares some time in the future. Let’s assume the warrants generate just shy of £2.5m and call it 30BTC taking total holding once warrants executed at 2680. At £82k BTC NAV per share becomes 55p a share, a tad lower than the current price.

At its all time high of £6.30 a share SWC owned just ~330 BTC = to £26m and with 220m shares in issue had a NAV per share of 12 per share. So SWC traded at around 50 times NAV and factoring in the warrants that were also known at the time sees NAV far higher than that, at its most extreme.

Will be ever see such crazy premium to NAV? Well never say never but it’s highly unlikely. But will we see a sudden change in sentiment at some point that has the market wondering if such moves could happen again and in that uncertainty end up with a quick rise to 3 or 4 times NAV? Well I think so.

So I hold and believe at some point, whether that be a few weeks, or months, sentiment will turn on a dime and if bitcoin is headed to all time highs then SWC will be something like £2.50+.

That’s a healthy return for those accumulating at this price.

Thorn presenting the poster alongside Tap perhaps?