Member Info for HarChris

To be honest that’s how I currently feel about AI language programmes, at the very least they could be described as ‘optimistic’ and ‘glass half full’.

Useful to quickly plug gaps in your knowledge and explain certain points of confusion but one should be aware that it tends to paint the best picture of any situation.

Personally I’m not sure but as the exploration programme is in full swing and the drilling campaign has been signed off (as announced in the last update) I at least expect more detail on timelines soon.

Q1 2026 for full preliminary economic assessment so not a terribly long time to wait for a major update at a minimum. I suspect we’ll get some drill results first around December time and if positive the announcement that they’ve taken the 50.1% stake.

The two companies are not easily comparable although I'll do my best.

At this stage Jangada is far less speculative than Wishbone and its recent rise in share price is very much modest in comparison to the developments (actually only up 10% YTD). Jangada was valued much higher (£27m mcap) a few years back based on its vanadium project (Pitombeiras) alone which it still owns 100%. If the drilling results in Brazil for the gold project are positive over the coming months and there's a sensible funding strategy to production laid out then I see no reason why the share price here can't get back to the sort of 3/4/5p level reatively swiftly.

As far as I'm aware Wishbone's hopes are pinned on the fact that its licences are in the same region and geographically close to Telfer, an enormous Australian mine owned by Greatland Gold. There's no doubt that there's lots of interest in their shares and lots of hype and who knows, that may end up being warranted but I'll always prefer to take the slightly more risk averse approach and choose the small cap with a clear case for being undervalued and with a proved up resource estimate and quick and relatively cheap path to feasibility study and on to production.

‘ So you are assuming a deal is coming in 6 months and there is no need for any extra money and that this minimal raise "proves" that? ’

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And I thought your critical thinking was better than this… I assume that the management are extremely confident of reaching an inflection point over the coming six months (‘ a deal and/or a RI at a higher price) to justify raising the minimum this time around. And I am willing to back their confidence with my own cash.

‘ Chris, never mind what AS did, had you listened to him you would have backed him based on what he said. (I am just using your own logic).’

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Nope and that’s a cheap shot. I was never a long term holder under AS, only ever traded. Only once Christina joined did I switch to seeing this as a long term investment and the more Hughes has kept to his word the more I’ve added with this becoming the vast majority of my portfolio now.

As I said to you the other day there was no perfect option given the corner AS had backed them into with the diagnostics investment and CLN. What the approach has been since Hughes’ directorship is to raise the minimum necessary at each juncture and rebuilt trust and confidence in order to raise higher and higher each time. How has that gone so far?

Would raising £50m this week at 63p be the safer option? Well, certainly. Would it have been the most positive signal as to what was to come over the next six months or so? Absolutely not.

The market isn’t giving credit to how perfectly Hughes has executed the fundraises so far this year but I also pointed out that it didn’t give immediate credit to the 30p raise or the 50p raise, if you’d trusted the market blindly then you’d have missed out on all the share price appreciation since.

To lose money from 63p would require there being no deal within the next eight months plus 1b data + initiating phase 2 + progress in all other fronts (particularly sentiment around 6103 in clinic) failing to attract investment at a higher price than 63p.

That’s what one has to ask themselves at this juncture, not just ‘deal or RI’

Wyn I’ve got to be honest, your posts are getting more erratic and ridiculous. What are you looking for? An AIM stock with certainty, with a guarantee of a great return? With zero ambiguity and yet with an attractive entry price? One so robust that you can’t even envision or come up with any downside scenarios?

They don’t exist. And I’m sure you know that.

‘ So, does that mean a deal is coming or another RI is coming?’

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It means a deal is coming and/or they are mighty confident in reaching an inflection point in the next eight months to achieve the next funding round at a higher price.

We’ve never had such a long period without the threat of downwards pressure from Heights so this is new territory since the £1.50+ days.

It’s very simple, you back management’s belief or not, it shouldn’t take so much head scratching.

After some period of time (a few months maybe) your account would show you as a lot richer than you were before.

That’s all true if it doesn’t mean more than doubling your share count to strengthen that negotiating position.

The problem isn't the raise per se, it’s the poor valuation in which this management was able to command cash at.

From Robin on twitter who knows his stuff:

#POW Now that is interesting. Decent move, will multi bag the investment over time. If the royalty company knows what it’s doing , then this is a rock solid investment which 99% of investors wouldn’t have access to. Think it is a good fit.

In one sense it's not a huge surprise, it's essentially a cooling off from the more than 100% rally vs August lows.

But vs what it appears we likely have here, a future majority ownership in a high grade 350k ounce gold project (with possible increase in resource to 1M oz), well the fall to barely a £5m mcap is an opportunity to add more if you ask me.

Why would anyone want them to relinquish the LTIP? They are only executing the RSUs and options if they get the share price much higher:

‘ The Restricted Stock Units ("RSUs") granted to the executive director and senior management are performance-based, will have a five-year term, and will vest in three equal tranches subject to the achievement of share price targets of 2.5p, 4p, and 6p over a three-year period, with the following additional performance-based acceleration milestones:

- in relation to the Anglo JV, Anglo exercising their option to accelerate Phase 1; or

- a Zambia Discovery, defined as a new resource where at least three holes drilled each assayed more than 50m% CuEq. (100m @ 0.5% Cu; 25m @ 2% Cu); or

- a Botswana Discovery, defined as a new resource where at least three holes drilled each assayed more than 25m% CuEq. (10m @ 2.5% Cu).

In addition, share options over ordinary shares in the Company ("Options") will be issued to directors and senior management as set out below. The Options will have an exercise price of 2.5p, will vest equally over three years and will be exercisable at any time after vesting and during the term of five years’

The ‘doubters’ for want of a better word just want to be given the latest pour (last one was August 18th, 9 weeks ago) and need to know what’s happening with the debt before buying. The doubters are just sensible investors not wanting to risk losing 100% of their capital.

With the funding sorted it helps to not think of any one event in isolation but more how the company will be looking in a month, three months time etc

Think of 63p as the floor and there being no ceiling best case if we get the SGC data, TNBC data and therefore commercial deals that we hope. Anything that strengthens the platform narrative (AACR, dual payloads) will only help drive share price appreciation further.

Let’s be honest, companies know the potential runaway hype that bitcoin creates, a digital bitcoin/treasury policy simply increases the chances of being there, at the right time right place if/when it happens again.

Gold is the actual business ECR is building and it’s in a very good place right now.

Big news in July with Pfizer data supporting the use of OBDs platform. News in October that made national and international headlines as potentially the first blood test to test for chronic fatigue syndrome . The July news takes share price from 0.25p to 0.5p, October news pushes it to 0.6p but market knew OBD needed to raise. Today announced a hugely discounted placing back to 0.3p and around the 52 week low.

Avacta's raise near year highs this week is far more auspicious than many on here understand.

It does feel like we’re very close to the below all changing dramatically ie the specific key benefits that Avacta’s pre|CISION technology has will be widely known in the pharma industry. What a difference this next six or seven months will make with 1b data released and first human data in 6103.

The last time vulture posted was in June when twice he/she asked if it was possible the share price could double… with share price at 32.5p.

The next time he/she comes on it has doubled from said price and he/she is instead here to call the share a dog. You couldn’t make it up!