Member Info for HarChris

Ava6000 for SGC beats the SOC by a country mile in a random selection of heavily pretreated patients in P1a. That makes the chances of a (Tempus selected) p1b success extraordinarily high. This in a first gen drug that management aren’t half as excited about gives me a lot of hope.

Today the company received the funds to get 6103, the drug you point out management are most excited about, into clinic and generating data.

AIM placings are a traders plaything but today is a major derisking event that buys management that bit longer to finalise a commercial deal on their terms and I’m sure it will show through in the share price once the dust has settled.

Already beating the SOC progression free survival metric in SGC in what was a random selection of heavily pretreated patients across numerous different cohorts. That’s quite staggering.

Beyond expectations? Without question. Were some of us naive to think major deals at a $B valuation from the p1a of the first drug in clinic? That, also. Here's what Grok has to say re a takeover at this stage:

'Post-Phase 1a : Phase 1a data alone rarely triggers immediate buyouts, as it lacks efficacy signals that excite acquirers. Instead, deals often follow positive topline results from Phase 1 overall (e.g., after 1a/1b). A BIO Industry Analysis (2021) on clinical success rates notes that only ~63% of Phase 1 entrants advance to Phase 2, and M&A spikes post-positive data readouts. Extrapolating from M&A trackers (e.g., BioPharma Dive, 2018–2025), fewer than 5% of biotechs completing Phase 1a are acquired within 12 months, compared to 15–20% after Phase 2.'

And i'm sure many of that tiny percentage of biotechs that are bought out after p1a also have other drugs in the clinic at the same or later stage.

‘ Certainly if this raise was so great and clearly foretold the positive outcomes which some here seem to think, the SP would not have fallen 5% so far today.’

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You said the same thing/ very similar on July 18th when the share price was still just 31.5p after the first Hughes 30p subscription, six weeks later the share price broke through 60p. Sweeping conclusions on half a day’s trading is lazy.

The immediate share price reaction is understandable to me. Traders and many of us hoped for a major deal in the next week or so, either side of AACR in Boston. This funding arrangement makes that far less likely and so the very near term FOMO has been quelled. But let’s fast forward two or three weeks, the share is now hugely derisked (no cliff face funding drop) and the potential for a deal alongside SGC data becomes very real as we near the end of the year.

We’ve seen a healthy rise, greater than 100%, from the lows to this 65p. Plugging this funding gap gives the space for another similar move if the news lands and aligns like we hope.

No that’s not what I’m saying.

If the opposite was true, that they had done another massive raise like AS did in early 2024, there is no question of how it would be interpreted… it would be concluded that there’s no deals in the offing.

The combination of raising the minimum they needed and it being oversubscribed is at least highly suggestive that it was their decision not to raise more because of all the (positive) reasons already mentioned.

Of course none of us can say 100% but this is a very plausible and more likely conclusion. And the odds are all we can play with as investors as we’ll never have every single fact at our disposal.

Wyn, if Avacta had gone and raised £40m instead there’s no doubt that you and others would conclude that there’s no deal in the offing and no interest from big pharma. The combination of it being as small as possible and turning town cash can mean only one thing, they are confident a deal is coming and/or they are sure they’ll be able to raise again higher in the future. And with the news we are expecting over the coming months you can see why.

Traders won’t be rushing in today as now there’s less chance of a deal landing alongside AACR but give it a few weeks and I’m sure we’ll see meaningful appreciation from here.

Post after post on here about how this was going to go sub mNAV and then it just jumps 20%. What a waste of time that was.

The director fees have been paid in shares rather than cash ever since IPO/RTO I believe.

It’s such a positive raise. This is no massive placing like the last one under Alastair in early 2024, this is to cover two Heights payments and extend the runway to July to give them a much stronger negotiating hand in partnership / deal discussions with all the catalysts to come over the coming months.

Totally different.

First subscription from Hughes at 30p and share price rallied to a peak of 60p, second subscription at 50p and share price rallied to a peak of 75p, third raise at 63p where do we think share price might head now???

Certainly won’t see a rerate without funding news but may well see share price momentum into Boston conference now.

Give them a week til AACR has concluded.

It’s a bit arrogant, what if the share price falls to 2.5p and so none of the warrants are executed! Ha

Segun’s strategy of focusing on maximising long term value instead of taking the easy gains (fast tracking Douta PFS, Segilola mine life extension etc) has played out perfectly, with the gold backdrop continually keeping momentum up here despite what seemed like delays in all the projects outside of the bread and butter Segilola production.

I suspect Q4 into Q1 to be filled with news and take Thor to £1… I still hold but regrettably reduced my stake way too early!

Who knows, if the yanks have a very early night they might be able to wake up early enough to join in the fun tomorrow morning here.

Well Bella p1b SGC data is with us in roughly two months, not long to wait to find out!

Remember those (I won’t name names) who kept saying ‘if P1a took 3 over three years how long will p1b take and then an even longer P2? Another three and a half years + another four years?!’

More likely p1b + p2 combined will be shorter in duration than P1a for the reasons well documented.

Just in case it is I’ll help you - the comment meant that it’s impossible to predict exactly when those warrants will be executed despite some claiming it will be April 2026. It might be then, it might be late 2026, it might be early 2027, it might be late 2027. It might vary from entity to entity. It might be soon enough to start factoring them in soon, it might be far too far away to start factoring them in soon.

Jeez, is English your second or third language? That would explain your last comment.

This bb is 90% digs at Thorn followed by Thorn justifying and explaining his Avacta position. Day after day it’s identical, almost to the letter.

I'm obviously betting on a bitcoin rise to new all time highs later this year and SWC to catch a head of steam again and outpace it. If I have to wait til some time in 2026 then not ideal but so be it.