Member Info for HarChris

The last time vulture posted was in June when twice he/she asked if it was possible the share price could double… with share price at 32.5p.

The next time he/she comes on it has doubled from said price and he/she is instead here to call the share a dog. You couldn’t make it up!

B2, I’m not convinced by that argument. The sidelining/deprioritisation of STS was made very clear, there was zero nuance, they wanted us to know it without drawing too much attention to it.

And then suddenly discussing it once again... Maybe nothing, maybe something.

I’ve been wondering about this. If an October deal was the third party warhead it’ll likely come with very little cash… what that would have then done is tell the market that a raise 100% was needed and immediately. Are we sure that would have increased the share price??? I’m not, actually I think it would have done the opposite.

A deal now in any form has the potential to raise the share price because funding is out the way. And with all the news due there’s no obvious ceiling.

It was painfully slow but we’re now seeing the opposite. P1b is right on track and looks to be all wrapped up in less than a third of the time of P1a. Progress? I find that hard to argue against. Alongside their hotly anticipated second drug is soon to enter the clinic and exciting developments continue apace in the lab.

The previous management hamstrung Avacta in a number of ways that’s impossible to extricate in one fell swoop, it requires stellar execution every step along the way and with it an ever increasing share price. So far so perfect. I remember you yourself saying that the trend is your friend and how you like to average up and not down, well, every placing this year has seen a material percentage increase. I find it therefore ridiculous that you’re focusing so much on two days price action and not the trend since Hughes joined to focus on the finance.

If the next raise is lower than 63p I’ll hold my hands up and say that’s a failure. I won’t however be tricked into thinking that the immediate share price reaction is all that telling, especially as all we’ve seen is it hug the conversion price for one trading day.

This is AIM, major catalysts are signposted and big moves happen around such events. Today’s 64p reflects hugely increased confidence vis an vis earlier this year but also that major catalysts are not today nor tomorrow either.

The share price looked ready to make a move to £1 recently but the need for funding got in the way. There’s now runway for that to happen but we all know that placings nearly always, temporarily, drag the share price back to that price.

This I think will be very temporary. Give it a few weeks, November, and let’s see if momentum kicks back in as we head towards key catalysts with no placing risk to throttle any big rise.

Thorn, I’m wondering if the STS 1b data is what’s got them talking up STS these last few days and hence why they aren’t showcasing the P1a data.

‘not according to the market‘

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Actually loads of us on here agree that we won’t see £1+ til there’s third party validation via a partnership/LD.

Yesterday gave management a whole half year more to achieve that with full 1b data to do it with. Hence why many of us saw the opportunistic raise as sensible strategy and a major derisking event.

They raised at 30p and after a bit of a lag the SP shot way past. They raised at 50p and after a bit of a lad SP shot well past. Let’s wait a few weeks to see if the same pattern plays out a third time.

Hey there Chaebol. I’ve always remained a holder but I shared recently that I had reduced way too early on the way up… but THX was my biggest holding at 17p let alone 44p, 54p etc !

The sell off here is extreme given that gold price is comfortably above $4k still and there’s so much important news backed up for this quarter.

You were calling 85p an absolute bargain the other day.

No, not a standard IMC meeting with q&a but in truth it seemed a bit overkill so close to the last.

‘Why do you think the share price has dropped to the 63p sell level then? ‘

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I shared my reasons before it even hit it, traders. There will certainly have been a number that were holding with the hope of being in when a deal landed, in the coming weeks. The equity raise made that much less likely (very near term) and off they sell. And the placing price gives a simple target for those flippers.

Placees are far more likely to have sold into volume at a premium in the days prior to the equity raise announcement rather than after.

'No Bella, what they do is sell their existing holdings at above 63p and then receive the same number of shares back at 63p. That puts a sort of floor under the share price drop.'

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This is nonsense unless you mean 'some' do that which is hard to deny. The majority clearly don't and that's why we've seen the world of difference vis a vis Heights receiving shares. There is no massive dump in the weeks following anymore.

I suspect there will be a TR1 this time around once the 25.5m shares are issued, I suspect there's an entity that's added to their holding taking them over 3%.

What oversubscribed means is that more money was offered than was taken. These investors will likely already have a large holding, there is an added benefit in putting up cash as it supports the long term objectives of the company and hence improves their chances of seeing a good return on their core holding.

An investor that gets scaled back in a placing is not necessarily chomping at the bit to buy more at any price close to the placing price.

‘Demoted’ is probably the more appropriate word than ‘dropped’ seeing as they are currently dosing STS patients in 1b.

From the interims:

‘ As of this report, copper trades at $4.60, gold at $3,719, and silver at $43.30, which, if maintained, will materially improve the cumulative net free cash flow of the project by more than $80 million.’

Now much higher again to $4.95, $4260, $50 respectively.

If the admin errors were late filing of annual accounts or things like that, i'd very much agree with you BV. When it's the odd spelling mistaking in an rns or a bit of confusion over a last minute IMC Q&A I think that means absolutely zilch in the grand scheme of things.

Risky to lean on this language yes but it’s enough for me to add further at such lows. The copper, gold & silver backdrop is just too good to ignore alongside the key strategic US jurisdiction.

Would be shocked if this doesn’t get funded.

HUgE drop. Absolutely massive! A whole 2% retrace, panic!

Looks like Huddled to be heavily featured in a four part ch4 documentary called ‘Secrets of Supercheap Shopping’

https://huddled.com/secrets-out-on-cheap-shopping-how-huddled-group-is-disrupting-retail/

You are very lucky to come across ECR at this point. Previously management were a little, shall we say, economic with the truth to get placings away that might have been difficult otherwise in what was a nasty AIM climate, especially for pre revenue explorers. The share price now reflects a lack of trust just at the stage where the company are genuinely about to deliver revenue and be able to stand on their own two feet in the most amazing of gold environments.

As high as 0.44p eleven months ago with gold price $2650/oz and production a long way off. Half that today with gold at $4340/oz and production very much in sight.