Member Info for HarChris

This recently from the full year results:

‘ For the post period end, January 2025 to June 2025, the Group has produced approximately 1,847.19 troy ounces, from the Homase Mine for an average of 370 troy ounces per month and the and the Board believes production will increase incrementally over the coming months.’

So that was five months, 1850 troy or ~2220 dore.

Today: ‘ Produced 2,917 ounces of gold to the end of August 2025.’

What a surprise, they switch to dore whilst leaving it vague. But what that means is a huge drop off so far in H2 so even though the cash position rose in H1 and even with the higher gold price revenue is lower and cash is likely falling again towards zero.

Very confident report. Copper bullish, gold & silver well we all know what’s happening there.

All still to play for here.

Loyal trader you need help.

I said current liabilities have increased, they have. Debt as of June 30th is a fraction down and that’s after the huge £3m+ conversion of debt into equity in Jan, and still the figure is essentially the same and growing since (as gold price has risen). I make the debt over $9m as of today and growing trade payables tells the story. GRL are producing some cash flow but are insolvent.

Haha not quite that much. I meant the range, probably fluctuating from $100k to $500k through this year as any receipt of funds quickly goes to covering trades payable. That figure is growing and is a sign of financial issues stacking up.

Realistically GRL need cash to ease the trade deficit, renegotiation with AIMSL and cash for expansionary activities. It’s a lot to ask.

It reads okay to me, the big positive being that they’ve even got to this point. The negatives:

Still made a whopping loss despite production being higher in h1 than it will be in h2. And the current liabilities are going to swallow them up, almost $12m with a big chunk of that being the gold loan due end of year (and increasing due to gold price).

Done well to scrape by all year with less cash in the account than many of us have in our ISAs though.

I said I had cancelled my 0.45p sell limit and was going to let it run, I did that. It just so happened that after being offered a price a good 10% more than that I saw it sensible to sell given what I feel about the company. I don’t think that’s flaky or inconsistent, personally. You’re one of the better posters on here that can handle alternative opinions so don’t try and paint me out to be something I’m not!

And don’t get me wrong, I in no way think I know what’s going to happen here, no one does. But as I keep pointing out the risk is many times greater than it was at any point in the last six months or so, even with the gold price so high. My view is just a counterbalance to some of the rampers on here.

Let’s see what happens tomorrow with the interims.

‘ You said you weren’t going to sell but you did. Everybody has the right to change their mind as it’s their money but you’re quite indecisive. Now that you’ve got out on a loss (not sure what price you sold your remaining shares last week) is it possible you’ve got an emotional need for your reasoning to be validated now?’

________

You can’t see the difference between then and now? The gold price has more than doubled, the potential gains are enormous for AIMSL, they’ve supported GRL long enough.

Previously AIMSL were owed less gold as part of the loan and the gold price was much lower, so they were in no position to completely control the company. Now the gold loan far surpasses the current market cap so it changes the balance of power 180.

At the very least , very least, some of the gold loan will be converted into equity and AIMSL will take a control 50%+ share. They aren’t a charity, nobody in this gold environment would just renegotiate without taking their pound of flesh.

Sticking with an investment for a year shouldn’t be described as a permabull. He changes his mind on many stocks, just not HUD at this stage which is a positive in my view.

A good point made by BBN on X: https://x.com/bigbitenow/status/1972578838988144975?s=46

Group breakeven is a lot closer than many might think.

I agree. With the right tailwinds I can see them commanding ~1.5p for the 500k take-up plus possible further fund to accelerate exploration and then push on again to ~3p which would probably be about £25m with the eventual increased TVR.

Investors and traders are savvy. They would be all over this if what you were saying wasn’t misleading.

Yes I imagine GRL are making a small monthly cash flow profit but in three months they need to repay 2200 x 3800 =$8,360,000 worth of gold loan. With what might be a few hundred $k in the bank.

Risk what you are willing to lose.

The placing proceeds in July will certainly see them through H2 and into 2026 so there's time for the Ingenuity growth to bleed through.

I sold on Friday once it started retracing so got a bit more than 0.45p but nowhere near the day's high.

No ulterior motive besides sharing my thoughts because I think there's dangerous misleading ramping going on that is missing correct details.

For example in your post you mixed up dore and troy ounces numerous times. As I said it's 2200 TROY ounces before interest so probably 2500 ounces if AIMSL allows another year's extension. That' 210 ounces per month. GRLs target was 1000 dore ie 810 troy but they're nowhere near that, at the very least they'll have to raise money to ramp up to that sort of level now, it's in the interims.

The difference this time is that at $3700/oz AIMSL might just see fit to take the mine and get someone else to run it. Sure they didn't previously but gold wasn't booming like it is now, there's a reason for AIMSL to be greedy this time.

I'll continue to follow this with you and we can see who's right. I certainly don't know for sure but the risk is DEFINITELY way higher than many are claiming on here.

Izzy, it’s not about hope but facts. This management team have never underpromised, they’ve always overpromised, and they said this after posting a 355 dore ounce month:

‘ is expected to maintain the Company's production profile through the remaining months of 2025. ’

It’s possible they’re surprised and production suddenly goes up but with limited resources the more likely best outcome is that they maintain ~355 dore to the end of the year.

It's priced at 0.5p because GRL are in up to their eyeballs in debt and so the downside is 100% and upside if a miracle were to happen in the coming months a few hundred percent. Pretending this is anything but highly risky is misleading... as of Dec 31st they are required to deliver 2200 troy ounces of gold to AIMSL. That's the equivalent of about 2670 dore ounces. They can't pay that, they can't meet the debt maturity and so their future hangs in the balance of AIMSL.

Do AIMSL extend it for another year? Well surely not because in no way are GRL going to command enough funding to then go and produce at such a scale that they can then pay back 2200 (+ interest) troy ounces end of 2026. So the question is does AIMSL force GRL into administration or is a restructuring agreed that both parties are happy with?

If AIMSL is your typical greedy management company then they are going to see their chance to grab a working gold mine for peanuts. Let's say GRL finds no alternative investment to step in and cover the 2200 / $8m/£6m debt, AIMSL could take control of the company by default, agreeing to transfer all debt into shares at say 0.2p. That would be about 3B shares issued and make AIMSL the overwhelming majority owner before taking it private.

There is still a chance that production suddenly increases and another lender steps in but the commentary in the last update leads one to think it's unlikely.

You’ve missed a zero, that would be $70m revs per annum. And then halved assuming JAN takes up its 50.1% option so $35m revs per annum would be the target or perhaps $30m assuming some softening of gold price.

Let’s hope there’s a rise into close leading to a leg up again Monday. That could see it at 1.5p in the blink of an eye.

Thorn can’t you just ignore those that laugh at your cheerleading? is it necessary to rehash your investment case here twice a day? I get that you want to explain yourself when questioned but my god I know the reason you have bought in better than my own! Anyone paying attention gets it, they fluked SGC data and now it looks a great candidate for approval , Icecool invested in STS and got lucky etc etc .

Obviously the Brazil connection to Paolo with the new gold project but also interesting that he made his name as CEO of Largo, a vanadium company, what with Jangada's Pitombeiras project still in the portfolio.

I, like others on here, could see this at £20m mcap soon and it would still look like having huge potential.

It shows their intention to leverage this gold bull market, no holding off waiting to see if BRES share price goes higher, full steam ahead instead.

Selling BRES at 5p a share today may well add far more value than selling at 10p in six months time.