Member Info for HarChris

(Posted this on sng board too).

Today the US reached its peak number of hospitalisations. Everywhere in Europe cases, hospitalisations and deaths are on the rise...

Fast forward 4 weeks from now. It's early-mid December, flu season is in full swing. What do you think the news is going to be focused on? This highly difficult to store and distribute vaccine? Sure it will still be talked about and other vaccines too. But no, attention is going to be on testing and treatment once again. The bleak images and news will move sentiment away from the broader markets and the need for genuine treatments will be back in focus.

This winter is going to be far, far worse than March/April/May/June. You make money in the stock market by anticipating a shift in mood/sentiment before it happens, NOT when it happens...

Today the US reached its peak number of hospitalisations. Everywhere in Europe cases, hospitalisations and deaths are on the rise...

Now fast forward 4 weeks from now. It's early-mid December, flu season is in full swing. What do you think the news is going to be focused on? This highly difficult to store and distribute vaccine? Sure it will still be talked about and other vaccines too. But no, attention is going to be on testing and treatment once again. The bleak images and news will move sentiment away from the broader markets and the need for genuine treatments will be back in focus.

This winter is going to be far, far worse than March/April/May/June.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/covid-coronavirus-hospital-cases-high-b1720821.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/11/japan-warns-of-third-wave-amid-rising-covid-infections

Icebilly, the company have mentioned expansion numerous times. They are already acquiring companies as we speak (IT IS) and Graham Mullis has stated numerous times that they will be making non covid related acquisitions in the near future as they march towards midcap (£2-£4b) status.

We were making above £30m a month back in the summer when novacyt released monthly figures. Sales have likely increased significantly since then so £1.5m -£2m a day would be a fair estimate.

Because we raised £87m at 1.75 just a few weeks ago and IIs are holding firm and buying more. This could easily return to the placing price before the month is out, netting a tidy 80% profit if you buy now...

Yes, that is what morningsun is saying. They currently have a £400m+ contract with the government to fulfil alongside the tens of millions of tests they are supplying monthly all around the world. Beyond that they haven't got anything to add for now.

Will do for me...

It's getting to the point where I'm not sure I can read this board anymore. It is very simple, the company is working flat out and is making extraordinary revenue and profits, so much so that most of it is not materially significant enough to share with shareholders now. When the figures are released this will almost certainly be above £10 and possibly much, much higher. If you can't wait til then well that's up to you.

Business as usual.

It isn't crashing, LSE are switching off the chat board at 08:00 in order to resolve some other issues.

Your investment is underpinned by hundreds of millions of pounds piled up high and a very smart management team that know how to spend it. This is the not speculative investment many seem to think it is, relax and wait for the tide to turn.

I know many of you will be spooked after the last two days of trading. I know the price action will have many of you wondering if something is going on behind the scenes or that synairgen's days are numbered... they aren't. This was a PI selloff. The business case remains almost identical to what it did on Monday. We were poised to start rising back above the 200p level as we waited for the announcement that p3 had commenced. Remember this tomorrow when you consider whether to buy, hold or sell.

The long term potential remains the same but the potential returns for investors have almost doubled. If your exit point was £3 you'll now be looking at a 200% return instead of 60% (from 180p). If your exit point was a fiver you're now looking at 500% return rather than 160%.

I can't say when this will catch a headwind and start moving back towards the placing price and beyond but I can say with near certainty that it will at some point. If you can afford it be brave tomorrow and think about topping up at this level. At some point it will be gone in the blink of an eye. GLA.

It's hard to say what percentage will refuse it but it's certainly not 70-80%. Somewhere between 10-20% is a much more realistic number when push comes to shove.

Well they are a drug development/biotech company... parexel is a clinical trials company.

It's worth noting that however good vaccines end up being it appears now that the coronavirus is here to stay in perpetuity. Sure the most vulnerable will be vaccinated (ideally with a vaccine that's highly efficacious) but just like influenza across the world tens of millions will be sick every year and need treatment.

There is still an enormous market for sng to sell in to - not just between March and widespread rollout of a vaccine but long into the future...

Tell me if you agree with my reading of the situation or not...

Imo this dramatic fall in sp is not 100% sentiment driven... before the announcement yesterday there was widespread feeling that a vaccine would take longer to reach the market and that its efficacy was likely to be closer to flu - this does change things somewhat. Besides that, it's business as usual for synairgen.

The 'shock' is now out the way. We now expect an effective vaccine, and soon, so it's priced in - if the interim readout turns out not to be what everyone is hoping for then sentiment will shift back to synairgen...

There was no way of knowing how low the share price could be driven down but after two trading sessions it's fair to say that we probably saw the bottom at 88p. I sold elsewhere and topped up on the way down at 120p (not good), 105p (okay I guess) and then again at 89p (better!). We are now expecting a steady flow of rns' all of which should be neutral or positive. So my reading of the situation is don't be fearful at these levels, for now the only way is up...

We really, really don't need an rns. We need to be confident in our research and collectively understand that this is wildly undervalued and either hold our nerve or buy at this level.

Phase 2 of the recent contract will be enough by itself to double from here.

It doesn't matter what happens next, there are many of us that believe in this company and are staying the course. We believe that whatever happens in the short term, novacyt will become the midcap company that Graham and the team have stated they are aiming to be.

I bet Graham is already turning his attention to his next acquisition...

Your home freezer will be about -18C NT!

Vaccine or no vaccine, is the share price going to plummet well below the company's expected cashpile of ~£400m?

No. This is the bottom.