Member Info for HarChris

Hartlebury, the thing is it's extremely difficult to make accurate projections right now so to me it makes sense that actual realised sales will hold more weight than 2021 guidance. We were the first to market and it's likely the pandemic will be brought under control somewhat next year so it is important to produce solid figures in Jan. Covid-wise it's again very difficult to predict how 2021 will play out so I don't think it will be enough to predict revenue to continue into 2021 and beyond without hard evidence such as contracts in the pipeline, new acquisitions or a sign that we are becoming permanently embedded in NHS settings.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/the-breakthough-medicines-that-could-change-the-course-of-covid

Do we get a mention? Nope. But little old aspirin does.

Shpunken, he's not from Zargon but he is from the Alpha Draconis star system - filtered for spreading misinformation.

The current mcap is not high enough for vaccine news to have a big effect. There is too much money being generated with little threat to the company's medium term future for AZN news to push novacyt's value much below the £600m it is currently.

The actual success of the rollout over the next three or so months will affect the share price and give us a clearer idea of what the future holds.

Parsley, you surely know that the actual share price relatively to another tells you nothing?!
If synairgen reached £500 a share it would still be worth far less than pfizer.

Shaun P, I saw this article from 2019: https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/british-travellers-iata-world-air-transport-statistics-a9029366.html

Very interesting fact that more brits travel abroad via plane than any other nationality on earth.

What sort of 2021 guidance do you think we are likely to be given in the trading update? Will it be a sentence or two such as the outlook for 2021 is positive with sales expected to exceed those of 2020 or do you think there will be more detail?

Versalab and airport testing have to be the big revenue generators next year. There are something like 125 million british air passengers a year so this is a billion pound market which we will have a decent share of...

The directors bought in after the huge DHSC contract, a contract that alone could exceed the entire forecast for 2020. I really don't see what is devious about that?

Porky I very much appreciate your post as it lays it all out but to me in the circumstances £250m would be a bit disappointing. I know that might sound ungrateful but the fact remains that this sort of opportunity is somewhat time-limited and the demand for testing is through the roof currently.

Almost all of phase 1 of the contract would fit into 2020 so I think anything above SP Angel's forecast we should be happy with, not below. So £300m+

I'd like to hear what Soder has to say.

There is obviously a limit to what sales could be without informing the market but what that limit is is open to debate in my opinion. The market assumes that production is between 10 and 20 million tests a month at a cost of about £8 a test so you could argue that around £120m revenue a month is a reasonable expectation, no?

I highly doubt we will see £575m revenue for 2020 but if we did I wouldn't have thought that would have the FCA coming knocking??? A billion, then yeah sure.

COPD is a truly terrible beast that seriously diminishes the lives of millions with very little therapeutic options - a drug that shows improvement isn't something to be sniffed at.

So Scinv, unless I'm completely missing it in answer to my question it's a massive lie to suggest that 'hundreds' of other drugs are currently being FDA fast tracked for covid?

Without meaning to burst the bubble it is likely just taking the public information from the bidstats platform: https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=primer+design

It's nothing new.

Earlier Darla made this comment: 'And as far as fast track FDA, there are 100s of other drugs also being FDA fast tracked for COVID. And many which have failed'

How true is this? Is our FDA fast track highly significant or are there really numerous (I don't believe 100s obviously) other drugs currently being set up in exactly the same way?

My favourite of hers was 'symantics'

Pjmcgra, we had this on the novacyt board, posters who moaned and said they'd be out at £3, then £4, then £5 but end up still there when it exceeds £10 and still bloody moaning! Not to be trusted if they don't keep to their word.

You can tell when people are on here to cause trouble and deramp because they tend to only engage with the less knowledgeable posters and jump on every silly post instead of genuine debate with the well researched and most intelligent. You'll see it with Whylie time and time again as well as with a few others.

Can everyone responding to Whylie PLEASE avoid trashing vaccines or claiming sng001 is going to bring the pandemic to an end - it gives him an open goal each time.

Vaccines are the the most important tool to bringing the pandemic to an end - fact. Sng001 if successful in P3 will save many lives and improve the health of others for many years to com,e not only for Sars CoV 2 but likely other coronaviruses and influenza too.

Whylie, it might be that the animosity is due to a lack of trust that the said poster (Darlaluse) is genuine. After all, it's suspicious that someone joins here in December claiming they've been invested in synairgen since 2015 and yet posts exclusively negative, gloomy content.

That's not me suggesting that, it's just what it looks like.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but are you not exaggerating when you say 'Most of those with heart disease and diabetes were in the placebo group'?????

I do remember there being a skew towards the placebo group for heart disease and diabetes and the other way for asthma but was it not a smaller skew than your claim appears to make?