Member Info for HarChris

Smokie, it's true that the government can't win as there'll always be detractors but what grates more is Johnson's insistence on making bold claims that are never ever met. I know he thinks his job is to boost morale but all it does is lose public trust.

If they are confident that the new dosing regimen will be effective and save lives I'm all for it but it does feel a bit anti-science to go with an untested formula and having the actual manufacturers of the vaccine question your approach is not particularly positive. There was such grandiose talk just three or four weeks ago but already it's clear that there's just no way they are going to meet their planned vaccine rollout objectives so have had to go with a different approach...

For herd immunity the UK needed something like 2 million vaccinations a week, never achievable. They've therefore changed the dosing regiment as an attempt to gain some control through focusing on the 'at risk' groups - but the truth is they are not going to have all these people vaccinated by April 5th, they just aren't.

The aim is 1 million vaccinations a week, half that is a more likely outcome. Cynical I know but a history of failed targets makes it reality.

Whatnot, it's novacyt's ability to punch well above their weight that's transformed the company and I fully expect them to puff their chest out, hold their own and continue to mix it up with the big boys. It would be a real surprise if these relationships with big pharma don't lead to a plethora of new opportunities in the new year.

And on that note, happy new year - bring on 2021!

I know he's supposedly in a committed relationship but it would feel like a fairytale ending if this investment comes good and Org sails off into the sunset to meet his long lost lover. Heck I think it would be worth following with a documentary crew - a rare covid heart-warmer.

I've tried and tried to read the share price movements but eventually came to the conclusion that I don't have a clue and so am no longer bothering to trade a small percentage of my holding.

I was telling our infamous Eva a month or so ago when she was boasting of her timings/trading on this share that without doubt it will be the committed holders like pmjh, Ghia, Oxford, SS et al that will see the biggest returns here, not those trading based on sentiment.

And if nothing else, the new dosing regime approved by the MHRA yesterday (one dose followed by another up to 12 weeks later) leaves a lot of questions unanswered and adds an extra, deep layer of uncertainty that might not have been there otherwise...

Sonic, I think you're right here. The same appears to be happening with synairgen. Investors waiting out the azn/oxford news, observing the fallout then piling in for a clear run into results (in both cases).

Ghia, like you say, NCYT and SNG couldn't be further apart. One now has a big war chest to enact their strategic plans which adds security to the investment but will be a long process. The other (this) is far riskier but offers the kind of immediate rewards that can't really be matched.

ChrisToffer, full year revenues for ncyt are now expected to be considerably higher than €150m and investor relations have said to look at the broker reports for expected revenues (i.e ~€310m). Quite transformational but obviously can't continue at that level.

Whylie, you come across as a very jealous person. I'm not sure about anyone here holding a million quids worth but there are a definitely a few that have large six figure holdings. Hell, I'm holding 30000 shares and I have a minimum wage job!

I'm sure if I went through your post history I'd fail to find a single positive post.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/questions-hang-over-uks-rollout-of-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

Fair piece pointing out the problems with the MHRA's approval and the questions left unanswered...

I don't think all the players in the EFL are multimillionaires! Certainly not in the lower two divisions.

Org, I think, but may be wrong, that after a lot of stick in recent weeks, that last post from Zwart was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. I don't think even Zwart thinks we are seeing a 500% rise pre p3 readout!

This rise today is filling me with optimism. Surely a sign of vaccine news behind us and full steam ahead...

Steve, that's true but it was never assumed that vaccines would be as effective as 95% or protect 100% from serious disease. Granted the claims from Pascal Soirot could well turn out to false but it does change the dynamics just a tad. If the vaccines were more in line with influenza efficacy then it would be a completely different story...

Exactly, PK. As far as industries to be investing in diagnostics seems a rather sensible one to be looking at don't you think?

Saint, it really depends on how much you believe in the board. If results blow all expectations out of the water then there's no knowing where the share price settles up and it won't be worth selling a dime.

If results are in line with expectations then I don't expect fireworks or a great deal of movement to be honest. It's still far far too early to get any clear picture of where this company will be in two years time and the share price will continue to reflect that. It becomes a choice of see it through and trust in the board's ability to spot new revenue streams and make shrewd acquisitions to continue the rapid growth or play it safe and bank those profits and watch from the sidelines.

Soder, I think you're underestimating how important these results are. The higher they are the bigger the share of the market novacyt/primer design now have. If they are not that impressive the forward guidance for 2021 will mean a lot less - there are so many unknowns that the market will prefer to see real sales rather than future projections.

Chas, ballpark guess:

<£250m revenue - fall in share price
~£350m revenue - gradual daily rises to about £11
~£450m - big jump then settle up about £14
>£550m - rerate

Don't look at it as £80 a share, that confuses matters. Can this company reach £6b mcap in the future? Theoretically yes of course. It's the goal of the company to become midcap and so they obviously believe it or at least state publicly that they do (well by midcap maybe not quite £6b, but certainly that sort of figure).

We don't know yet know how long covid testing is going to be needed for, we don't know if this mutates and renders the current vaccines futile, we don't know just how much the company is currently making, we don't yet know how serious the government (and other governments) are about building a credible diagnostics sector here in the UK, we don't know if another novel virus is going to pop up out of nowhere, we don't know if Graham is already one step ahead again and preparing for a post-covid world.