Member Info for HarChris

The building of layers of immunity makes sense, thanks Scinv. My comment was more to do with the way Boris Johnson in particular tries to make the situation seem black and white when it's obvious to anyone with half a brain that it isn't. 'Let's get that jab in the arm and get back to doing what we do best!' kinda thing.

Scinv, perhaps that's true that it was inevitable that we would see mutations that are more resistant but this does not seem to be something the scientists were expecting yet, just as we begin the vaccine rollout. Far from it if you go by Sir John Bell's comment on Nov 9th (below)...

There's been many attempts on here to undermine vaccines in order to win some perceived treatment vs vaccine war. This was always an imaginary fight unless vaccines were to wipe the virus from the face of the earth - highly unlikely.

The comments from Sir John Bell today changes the framing of our investment in synairgen and reminds the market that yes vaccines are the tool that will bring life back to normality but there is a long and arduous road ahead, one in which treatments are very much needed. If there is confirmation anytime soon that the new variant can evade the current crop of vaccines then expect even more money to be piled in here...

Whether or not covid is sticking around does make a massive difference despite some arguing that the company is far more than covid. Think of it like this - for a £1.2b cap (100% gain from here) at a p/e of 30, the company needs to be making £40m profit a year. A single £75m contract with the DHSC satisfies that.

Simply rolling over a six month testing contract would be enough.

There's been a hell of a lot of anti vax sentiment and misinformation on these bbs but that quote by Sir John Bell is not that. How anyone can think testing is going to slow down soon is beyond me.

Exactly noguts - also it's worth noting that still the 70% figure is generally being used for the Oxford vaccine but surely it's either 62% or 90%, with the former being the closest approximation now two full doses are being administered? A weighted average isn't useful if you are choosing one over the other.

It wasn’t me, so can only be PMJH.
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Adding three shares to your holding does not constitute a 26% rise!

South African variant could be resistant to vaccine, expert suggests, but new jab could be made in 'weeks'
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Ugur Sahin said this too, sort of ignoring the fact that yes you might be able to produce a new jab very quickly but you can't manufacture and get it into billions of arms quite so quickly...

Realistic and possible I suppose but it was never likely and still isn't. We are talking 3250% from here though, so this comment shouldn't dishearten you!

I'll be delighted if the company is bought out anywhere within the bull case and blue sky range (£9.90 - £50).

Although not a premium member in the eyes of LSE, you very much are a premium member in the eyes of us novacyt investors.

Lolades, a little tip for you... get involved in the forum, interact, post a few times here and there. It's the only way you're going to be taken seriously as 90% of the time new posters writing a long doom and gloom first post are going to be trolls. And so posts like yours will be taken the wrong way.

If we get the first dose rns tomorrow will you let Richard off for being one business day late?

There is almost no other way to interpret the flurry of director buys in early to mid November than to conclude that those in the know felt this was their last opportunity to get in at this level (60 days before full year results). They may have been expecting phase 2 to have been triggered by now, there may have been other contracts in the pipeline that haven't materialised, of course these things are a possibility. But it's still rather bullish to think that Graham and others decided that pre-results were the time to invest rather than post-results.

It's not **** or bust, it's far from **** or bust. The aim of the game right now is to make as much as possible so as to have the funds to build this company into something much bigger. Pandemic preparedness is going to be a term used over and over and whatever way you look at it we certainly have close links to the government/DHSC now and will almost certainly be involved in whatever direction they go in diagnostics-wise.

If the results are excellent then the road ahead will be much clearer and comfortable. If they are a bit disappointing then there will be a lot of work ahead and the executional risk will grow substantially but I don't think it all hinges on how good the sales are over the past six months.

Shaun, that hospital in Italy with confirmed orders of €1.5m is promising but is there any reason why those deals are published publicly but no others (besides a couple from I think Ukraine) have been unearthed? Are you expecting there to be hundreds of others like the University of Cagliari orders?

Is that the quote? Could you post the full article?

Not disagreeing, mid next year to start building the company out seems valid to me - what you will find however is many investors itching for acquisitions asap as it'll almost certainly be a boost to the share price ST.

Besides keeping impatient shareholders happy is there a rush for Graham and the board to make more acquisitions? Personally I'm happy with them focusing on covid for now and taking their time with future acquisitions. It won't be necessarily good for the short term share price but I'm only interested in where the company is in three to five years now.

My prediction: the share price rallies to about £10 pre results.
<£275m - share price falls back to £8
~£325m - small share price rise to £11
>£400m - £1b mcap, £13
>£550m - rerate

There is a swell of positivity right now which could well see the share price move significantly north in the very near future. A month or so ago there were posters calling out those predicting £7+ on positive results with comments like 'so you think the share price will jump 700% off the back of this p3?'

No, it was always far more likely that the share price would run to ~ £3 before the p3 readout with positive results leading to another 100%+ jump.

If these are indeed extra tests bought outside of any contract that bodes very well for us considering what we've been hearing about a 50000 deficit of tests a day - we could well be looking at an extra £10 million+ a month that we hadn't been expecting ...

And yeah AdagioHedgeFund clearly isn't Sharehunter.