Member Info for HarChris

You can **** me off as much as you want and I've only been investing for just under two years but I've turned my £30k savings into over £140k, of which around 40% is in novacyt. I'm on here quite a lot for that very reason.

I'll answer your question even though you failed to answer mine - I now hold 7200 shares.

Walshberg, could you educate me please as I'm still trying to understand what posters like you are on about. I am absolutely certain that what you say about Blackrock is *******s. If anything they're being given the chance to accumulate more at this price and will drive the price significantly north if results are good.

So what has the company lost by not communicating more with shareholders? Some fickle shareholders who complained on twitter for a couple of weeks before selling out? What difference does it make to the company if, in this interim period before results, the share price is £8 or £12? I'm genuinely interested.

The fundamentals will always win out, especially in this situation. As long as the company performs as expected the only investors that will lose out are those that couldn't wait a few extra weeks for results.

I'm still up at 7am every morning for that elusive Sun Pharma takeover RNS - one day soon!

It will be exactly the same every single day. Traders buying around 10am and selling before COB. If no rns then back in tomorrow at 10am.

Perfect scenario for funds - plenty of impatient and frustrated PIs willing to pass their shares onto institutions without pushing the price higher.

It's incredibly narcissistic to make a new account merely to announce you've sold some of your holding. It's as if this is as significant news as Tikvah's dilution/decrease or Polar's stake building...

HC I wouldn't ignore anything Tony says. His navigational understanding of chart patterns is spot on.
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I'm sure Tony is very skilled in charting but to suggest that a chart could lead you to predict the date of an rns, is to be frank, stupid. Unless you believe all the big holders are told in advance by Synairgen and they make their moves accordingly.

The Chart is hinting an RNS on Weds to Friday next week.
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The chart is not however anthropomorphic and so as far as I am aware, has no ability to predict these things!

146 Sam - go go go!

@shearclass you make a good point regarding ARB. I have to remind myself when I see such enormous gains that i) I would never have risked much money on it and ii) I'd have almost certainly banked most of it well before 1000%+ gains. Novacyt however I am happy to stake thirty times what I would in some speculative stock and so it takes only a small rise to make more from the investments you are confident in compared with the punts.

Another very important thing to remember, novacyt is largely in PI hands, PIs that caught whiff of this share on bb boards or twitter. Many of them will be off chasing the next big thing (can't quite believe what's happening over at ARB to be honest!). They are not strong holders and that makes this volatile. It also means that it can move very quickly and be well overbought when good news lands, a big advantage for rational, patient holders.

Bramley, could you explain what you mean? I can't see a reason why the company would group together to all buy in November unless they were expecting breathtaking results. Can you? It is clear what message it sends. Graham has repeatedly said 'join the dots' and this is the sort of thing he is referring to...

There is no need to massage the share price over this period, they aren't looking to raise cash, they don't need to artificially prop it up, it would make no difference long term to have it at £8.50 now or £5?

I find it hard not to picture Darlaluse as some scrawny 30 year old kid surrounded by a heap of crushed dr pepper cans frantically signing in an out of multiple accounts and treading carefully not to reveal himself or slip up each time.

If i'm wrong and you really are just after a top of the range wheelchair I'd be more than happy to chip in and help you out and save you having to bet your way to it. As I'm sure would others on here...

Let me push this back to the top as it got a lot of recommends.

One extra bit of info - James McCarthy not only bought £90k worth of shares, he also bought them at an average of £9. With the company growing so fast he was brought in as a corporate consultant with a finance background, having been CFO of the Flint Group . He sees what's going on, felt the company was undervalued at just £700m and was told that he had to purchase shares now before the lockout period (the buying stopped after this).

There is no other way of interpreting this is there? The results are going to be good.

We don't actually know what's going on behind the scenes do we? It might be that the Qs have made their way to most UK hospitals but simply can't be used within care homes as they require technical, lab expertise. I can't really see a situation where every staff member, care home resident and visitor is tested regularly with a rapid pcr test, it's just not feasible and there's no way we could supply enough tests to keep that going...

I'm not sure but if you're worried consider selling some of your holding and buying back in if the news you're looking for comes. You might lose out on a few percent but it'll put your mind at ease - GL

I should stop as I've hogged this board but remember this crucial bit of information..

If the results match or beat the broker forecasts it will be a turning point. I am certain of that. James McCarthy in his role as a consultant in November, just before lockout period prior to results, piled £90k of his own money in. It then turns out his specialism is finance and is appointed CFO. James McCarthy had access to our sales figures and liked what he saw...

And as Roley just said, EKF is looking at a forward PE of 13.25.

If we hit the £300m sales, £230m EBITDA, net income £200m then I imagine we'll be seeing a p/e ratio of at least 5.

Porky, sorry if any of my replies seemed sharp earlier, they weren't many to be.

Company valuations are complex and something I am trying to get my head around too in relation to this investment in particular. P/e ratios are a useful metric but they don't tell the whole story. A quick glance at EKF's financials and I see they have net assets of £71m, that for example is one factor propping up the £300m valuation. With a p/e that high I assume that they have some technology that would pave the way to exponential growth but I can't comment on that particular stock. But Telsa's P/e ratio is something like 1500 so it obviously doesn't tell the whole story and in some cases, it's meaningless! Have a look at ocado's p/e ratio also.

What I have learnt is that experienced investors like a history of accounts to compare to, concrete financials to examine and pore over. They look at novacyt and they don't see a serious business, they see a business that has failed to make money in any of the past four years, they see a business with virtually no fixed assets before this pandemic and right now a valuation of £650m.

Will that change? I don't know but I bloody hope so as I'm in extremely deep here! What happened earlier this year was speculative price action driven by major news events. The share price could have risen as high as £20 is we were still no closer to a vaccine or £2 if pcr testing fell completely out of favour. Now things should be more stable as the future becomes more certain. Of course external events will still drive the price somewhat but not to the same degree as it did earlier in the year.

I personally think as long as the sales meet the broker expectations the results will be a catalyst to see the share price move north towards the £1b mark (~£13). Sales around the £300m mark will prove that this company should be taken seriously and has the ability to take advantage of the covid opportunity. You've then got to ask yourself the question, is Graham the real deal? Does he and the board have the ability to take this previously small company and compete with the biggest out there? I don't know the answer to that but I know smarter people they me do believe in it and they are clearly ambitious. If they can pull it off then you're looking at life changing returns over the next 3-5 years.