Member Info for HarChris

Porky, it feels like you absorb the comments during the day and then summarise it for everyone to wake up to next morning - love it!

For all the chaos on here last night, I think the case for synairgen is stronger than ever. Expecting any dip to be bought into today and a finish above 152p

Junior's in over his head.

I listened to covid select committee question the health secretary. Mass testing will be here until at least this time next year. Vital for surveillance etc....... so that is another year’s worth!
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In the UK... Novacyt will have the cash to target countries that are struggling the most with the virus from 2022 onwards...

https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210107-covid-19-french-pm-announces-closure-of-border-with-uk-vows-speedy-approval-of-more-vaccines

'Only certain categories of people, including truck drivers, are allowed through the border providing they have had a negative PCR test during the three preceding days.'

Ask yourself why is the share price so low ??
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There are many reasons why it's so low. The most obvious being that this is propped up by covid test sales during a pandemic, which won't last forever. We can't do anything about that for now, all we can do is produce results that prove that a) they are agile enough to be able to take maximum advantage of the situation and b) outline what they have planned for the future. We are also hearing however, that it is likely to last a long while yet so investment-wise, that is positive news.

I am trying to stress that if sales are as good as we are hoping, the chance of future success grows enormously and therefore so will the share price. If profit is £200m for example with even better guidance for 2021 what that does do is guarantee a hell of a cashpile to attempt to transform the company. That brings security and lowers the risk going forward...

What I am saying is we are now being told that testing is here to stay. Our pcr kit is the best in the business so there is absolutely no reason the government would drop up as a main supplier so what we have there is a bit of certainty - tick!

The biggest uncertainty is over the next set of figures. Six months is an enormously long time to be kept in the dark over sales in a situation like this. The broker targets have us at around £300m revenue for the year and the hints from the company are that we should expect results to be in line with that. There is reason (such as the DHSC contract, min £150m + testing ramped up globally) to believe that full year sales are higher than £300m, with my own personal prediction being £400m. If they are good the share price moves considerably north, there's no debating that.

So, if you believe despite the uncertainty that sales hit broker targets, you will be fine. But of course none of us actually know for sure!

Ventura, are there actually a lot of PCR company's fighting over a shrinking customer base? I'm not as knowledgeable as I should be on this subject but I don't actually think there are that many. I think the millions of lab based tests in the UK are split between a handful of main providers, one of which is us...

Also, we don't need to be making anywhere near the money we are making longer term to justify this share price or even a much higher share price. 2020 we can expect profit to be around £180m. 2021 we can expect profit to be a little higher than that. That is the sort of profit companies with £5b mcaps make.

With a combination of covid sales and revenues from R&D and newly acquired businesses, novacyt have every chance of commanding a much higher value. The comments today from Han**** that testing will be with us long into the future underpins the future of the company in a BIG way.

Lab based PCR tests are now averaging 400k a day, that's 12 million a month. I am confident (as part of the latest contract) that a good 30% of those are Primer Design. Revenue from that alone may exceed £30m a month, there really is nothing to worry about!

It appears his reasoning is the two new drugs that have been approved, although that news came before the market closed and we saw a small tick upwards after it.

The build to results will happen at some point soon, probably next week. It will be against a terrible backdrop of spiralling hospitalisations and deaths in this country and probably the rest of the northern hemisphere too. Deeply sad and morbid but it will bode well for the share price.

The frustration is misplaced if you believe you're right as all it is is a few more weeks of paper losses until results. I think it's exciting and an amazing opportunity if you can free up money for another top up. I'm sure we must be selling 6 million tests a month at £8.50 so looking at £50m a month.

Going into results hoping for £400m but knowing £280m would shore up the share price is a great safety net and soother of my nerves!

I've said it before, if the market believes that covid testing is here for good novacyt rerates. Profit for 2020 will be larger than most of the ftse250 with 2021 even stronger. The evidence for testing long term is growing by the day...

Highly unlikely, right?

(please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god, please god)

I would say that's about the worst logical reasoning I've ever seen from Faye - not an exaggeration. I reread it five times and it still made no sense!

It's an incredible coincidence but sure it does seem like we might have been barking up the wrong tree on this one - oops! Glad you're still invested and not the twitter troll!

Thanks K, your post led me to it. I also noticed alongside his exit he announced his expectation that it drops to £8 or lower - classy!

I can't help but post this:

First Walsh says this 'Harchris you can’t pass judgment on anything, you should be keeping quiet, when you sh&t in your pants every time at the slightest of drops and sold out....'

Next post 'I’ve not sold a share since getting in at 6.50, I know what the company is making, Ive told everyone man and his dog to invest into Novacyt, '

And then a few mins later on twitter announces that he's out of ncyt. So I hold 7200 shares and you have 0...
You couldn't make it up!!!

And before HarChris jumps down my throat
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I'm really very sorry if that's the impression many of you are getting. I've found it a bit frustrating seeing all the negativity, it's been known for ages that we'd get no trading update before end of Jan and it's obvious that it's only because of the disappointing share price action that people are venting. If we were seeing a steady rise into results now everyone would be praising Graham and the team and the tremendous work they're doing...

I don't like to see *****ing about the company go unchallenged but I'll leave the defence to others as much as possible from now on. All the best guys and girls!

We're allowed to have a different opinion aren't we Walsh? I just happen to believe that what you're saying is nonsense. You seem to be speaking as if the company have missed their opportunity because they've decided the best thing to do is keep quiet and release only the news that they are legally required to. I agree that that's why IIs have been reticent up to now and why they hold such a small percentage of the company but I don't believe that will stay the case if novacyt reveals great financials later this month with strong guidance into 2021. So what fundamentally matters is the fundamentals right now and the rest will follow.

To even question the CEO at this stage is absolutely ridiculous. It was his foresight that led to the transformation that we've seen this year and you think he's going to be pushed out because his and the board's lack of communication with the market led to the share price drifting for a couple of months? Get out of here!