Member Info for HarChris

Today on Six Music they were discussing the summer festival season and how it's possible to get the likes of Glastonbury, Reading, Bestival, Latitude etc going ahead if they can do it in a covid secure way - it reminded just how many potential settings there are for Versalab and how these are probably being discussed and planned as we speak...

Alastair Smith did buy a beautiful house - rumour has it Architectural Digest will be showcasing it in next month's edition!

Whylie, what are you doing here? You told us repeatedly that you are in at 80p and will be out at 160p. 160p came and went and still here you are...

Captain, the issue you seem to have is that you are looking for the disruptors and disregard everything else. Avacta are clearly an innovative company with groundbreaking technology but there's something to be said for companies like novacyt that do the basics exceptionally well and are able to spot an opportunity and take advantage of it. No company has seized the covid opportunity like us. There really aren't that many reputable companies producing covid PCR tests and the market is still enormous and will be for some time yet. Not to mention how big the PCR market is as a whole...

You're one of those people that think new technology replaces old overnight. I'm sure you thought petrol and diesel cars would vanish the moment the first Tesla Roadster hit the highway. 15 years later and electric still doesn't have a foothold.

You're also ignoring the M&A strategy in place going forward. We're still in the middle of the pandemic, give them time on that front.

The likes of Roche, TF, Abbot are putting out pretty 'bog standard' antibody LFT tests also and they are multibillion pound companies.

Avacta may come good but you've been trashing this share for six months now. When you first started avacta had a higher mcap than novacyt, now it's half. Be humble and admit that things have not panned out as you expected...

They're bang up for this aren't they?! Really propping us up.

Although a bit depressing for some it was refreshing to have some reality from Whitty compared with Boris' bumbling bombastic optimism.
Aiming for 13 million vaccinations by mid February is once again pie in the sky.

I'm sure there are numerous other companies and shareholders of those companies saying the same thing - not how it works.

I'm outta interferon luv, I smoked the whole lot last night!

Keep your bladder issues to yourself Crabtree

Oh Mandy
You came and you gave without taking
But I sent you away
Oh, Mandy
Well, you kissed me and stopped me from shaking
And I need you today
Oh, Mandy!

Like ShearClass said, confirmed orders by June 2nd were £120m. That was five months into the year , a year which realistically started in just the third month. So three months into the pandemic there was £120m confirmed orders!

What do we think the confirmed orders might be 9 months through the pandemic seeing as demand for testing has grown and grown throughout that period and we had a new mega UK contract? Twice that? No definitely more. £550m would be my guess, £375m of which is realised in 2020 and £175m more contracted into 2021.

It's also highly reassuring that the share price has held its ground above 150p despite this continued delay. It feels like the share price is bubbling and ready to go either way - no news this week and it might see a steep fall, news and we go back above placing price.

ShearClass, exactly. If hitting SP Angel's revenue target is enough to see a substantial rise in share price than I'm seriously excited for results! We all have different expectations but I'm in the camp that thinks those on twitter predicting a billion revenue are obviously bonkers, but £400m is well possible.

For a bit of balance let me say that Numis's share price target is a little lower based on slightly higher revenues, so take the broker forecasts as a guide rather than gospel.

I don't agree re sales. We're at the forefront of testing in a global pandemic that has ground the world to a standstill. In any other situation I'd say we were aiming too high but if we are selling anywhere near capacity (and demand is currently outstripping supply everywhere) then the full year revenues will be above £300m.

Question to the forum, is there such a thing as "Antigen RT-PCR testing"?
**********************

As far as I'm aware no, but sometimes PCR and antigen are used interchangeably to mean NOT antibody. Obviously it's used incorrectly in these cases.

To those worried in response to Primer Design's 'We have stock ready to go' type comments, let's not forget that production is somewhere between 10 and 20 million monthly currently. Selling every test produced would have monthly sales of between £85m and £170m. Let's be really conservative, go with the lowest of the range and assume that we have 20% of stock available each month. That would give sales of £68m a month, H2 sales of £408m and full year results at over £460m.

That's a fag packet calculation if ever there was one but goes to show how unconcerning it is that primer design have stock available.

Straight from the horse's mouth.

Dollars that is.

Jonathan you're right that she is not technically qualified for such a position but we know nothing about her. Perhaps she is incredibly intelligent and has the ability to step up in a big way to the new demands? I would say the company themselves are in the best position to make that call, not a bunch of faceless investors on an internet bb.

At this mcap the potential is still so big with almost no risk of the share price collapsing in on itself short-term. I'm viewing this period as a chance to load up prior to results. No investment is risk free but a company selling viral detection tests in a global pandemic with clear plans for transformational strategic growth is one worth taking more than a punt on!

Let's say the government do for once reach the target they've set of vaccinating all the people in the top four priority groups by mid February. They then all get a second shot taking us to April/May time. In this scenario things start opening up and we begin to see life back to where it was before. What happens to testing? Well for starters it might be needed as much as ever. Youngsters mingling together at festivals and pubs and clubs will cause outbreaks and seeing as we have all the superlabs and testing centres set up, why close them down when cases numbers are still high?

If you realise testing will be here through 2021 in the UK even under the best case vaccination scenario, it highlights how secure the revenue stream is for some time yet selling around the globe.