Member Info for HarChris

Looking again at Numis' bear, base, bull, blue sky I think these 2020 figures are going to be especially important. Why? Well Numis appears quite settled on 2020 revenue but many of us are quietly confident of exceeding £305m. Producing £400m or more will be quite the statement that says you underestimated just how much of the market we have control of. It will immediately point towards the bull and blue sky case for 2021...

Porky, haven't you listed Numis' 2021 revenues? For 2020 Numis' base, bull, and blue sky are all around £300m I think so something in the region of £500m with bullish forward guidance and all bets are off the table!

Why I am not surprised that a certain gambler is putting big money in bitcoin?!

£500m plus a statement predicting 2021 revenue to exceed 2020 and we will rerate.

I like the comment, so what will the market think of the "Expected £400m"?
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Shaun, can you imagine what's going to happen on here if sales are £400m? It's going to go crazy. Novacyt going from £65m in H1 to £335m in H2 with guidance for 2021 in line or better than 2020.

I am sure the market is not taking these figures seriously and is actually expecting full year sales to be around £200m (even though it's nonsensical). It's going to get a hell of a lot of attention... I'm not sure where we would settle up but I think we'll definitely hit something like £14 within a couple of days before maybe sliding back down and finding a new range between £11 and £13. Just a guess.

It's without doubt a concern: https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1347016588579508224

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https://www.buzzfeed.com/elliewoodward/kim-kardashian-deleted-photo-without-wedding-ring-divorce

Delete photo shows Kim minus wedding ring, things moving fast behind the scenes...
Rns Monday.

Kaeren, I think it would be more accurate to say 'institutions tend to invest after poring over the financials'. There aren't financials to dig into here hence why many believe the II buying will begin to filter through in 2021 and as long term holders they'll shore up the share price.

We're all invested so are naturally biased but I believe that if results are what we're expecting we will be chasing £1b mcap which is I think £13.51 to be precise!

Kaeren, there's uncertainty and then there's ncyt! Six months without any trading update is quite crazy when you think how fast moving the pandemic has been and that we had monthly updates from February to June. The fact that we have a market cap of £580m and we aren't sure if H2 sales are £150m or as high as £600m is quite unprecedented to say the least!!!

Not complaining just to be clear :)

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1347016588579508224

Interesting read and certainly not from a conspiracy theorist.

Further, ShaunP here who i consider the number one guru researcher here (sorry for the plug Shaun) is estimating 500m Revenue (I was working on half that) and even higher EBITDA
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Absolutely nobody has the right to question Sir Shaun P, nobody!

My forecast is right up there too but I'm sometimes reticent in sharing it incase I'm way off the mark or set expectations too high. Following £65m it seems on the surface ridiculous to hope for 6+ times that in the second half of the year but when you dig down into the numbers it's not that far-fetched.

So where I stand is: Praying for £500m, expecting £400m, relaxed if it's £300m.

Porky, I'm way in over my head too but have absolute faith that we're ahead of the market. However it goes we're both in this together now so good luck!

P.s read this thread in its entirety, it should be a confidence booster: https://twitter.com/TaylorQuant/status/1347489675913678848

I think we'd all love news that catches the play away philanders who were hoping to get back in mid Jan out!

Own over 10% follow the money quite simple. Say whatever else you want. They know far more than anyone on this board - maybe sharesting excluded haha
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We all know ShareSting is Richard Marsden.

He said weeks ago that he was taking a step back as there was nothing new to add. Still seems very bullish and just waiting for results now like the rest of us.

Say Nova only (!) gets to a revenue of 144.6M£ and an Ebitda of 98.8M in 2020 (H1 times 2), then the P/E would still only be 6.
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There's some discussion on twitter but basically £255m is what you get from the £120m contracted by June 2nd and about £135m of the initial £150m of the DHSC contract falling within 2020. Then you've got so many other revenue streams... We are almost certainly going to see revenue above the target set by SP Angel and I would say Numis also.

It's not so much that investors are blind, they just see money making opportunities elsewhere currently. Either in the build up to results or after results, this will move significantly, I'm so sure of that!

It's gambling PIs trying to ride the wave of any hot stock that is holding this back. This isn't likely to rerate but it is a relatively safe investment that should deliver market beating returns. I'm much more confident that I ever was despite the disappointing share price movements.

This wording suggests what we'd expect then, right? N501Y unlikely to be vaccine-evading but perhaps resistant enough to reduce the efficacy?