Member Info for HarChris

Are you seriously suggesting that now we have a vaccine, we should instead be going for herd immunity through mass infection of the population?! Wow.

Anyone thinking the variants with the E484K are not widespread are kidding themselves.

Kaeren, it's widely accepted that the virus will not be contained and therefore will become endemic. It's certainly going to lead to nationalism and tight border controls for years to come

Troublesome I'm not suggesting anything, I'm saying what will happen. The government have never claimed to protect anybody, they simply had one public objective - to stop the nhs getting overwhelmed. Even in the summer when hospitals were relatively empty they sent shielders back out to work which is evidence of this.

ProfSPD, if Marcus Rashford can push an agenda so can we, we just need to find the right people who can ask the tough questions.
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Got any premier league footballers in your phone book or hollywood actors even?!

yeah, hence why I said we will get back to normal once the most vulnerable (65s+) are all vaccinated but some will continue to get ill as 40-65s still do get ill and won't be vaccinated for some time and the vaccines do not offer 100% protection.

HarChris, I think you have got your age range for getting ill incorrect.
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What makes you say that? Most at risk 85+, then 80+ rinse and repeat all the way down to 40.

Earth, there is a current drive to vaccinate the 15 million most vulnerable people in society, the ones we are currently protecting. That's what we've been waiting for so things will be much closer to normal in just a few months time...

People will continue to get ill (particularly in the 50 to 70yrs range), testing will still be required and mutations will inevitably cause problems further down the road but we almost certainly won't be seeing our freedoms curtailed to this extent again...

We've seen this for a few weeks now, one day up the next down. It would be great to see a couple of consecutive days of rises to move us up a leg before results. We're very close now so fingers crossed.

Carers refusing the vaccine will be far less informed than the scientists involved in getting the vaccines through clinical trials and those in the regulatory bodies that have approved them. They buy in to scaremongering plain and simple.

Bluelight, it's certainly been an open goal for conspiracy theorists (think coca cola testing positive) and has led to a general mistrust and feeling that covid testing is inaccurate/misleading, even by the more mainstream.

Alan, it's even more common in the states: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/10/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-us-health-workers

'With up to 40% of frontline workers in LA county refusing Covid-19 inoculation experts warn that understanding and persuasion are needed'

No worries Jgcw. Personally I don't see what difference negativity on here will make. In two weeks max the trading update will be released and if they've delivered the goods this is up, up and away.

This is a really good opportunity for all of you on here that are seeing far more downside than upside to cut your losses or lower your exposure. You know, those of you that think they've missed the boat with covid, that this is just another interferon product with no unique IP etc

After all, it must be awful being so invested in a company you see little potential in.

Remember how we were told for months by CS that the future was mass testing with LFTs? I don't think it will ever catch on. Vaccines will bring the pandemic under control and PCR testing (hopefully a move towards decentralised in-hospital testing), antibody testing and genomic surveillance to track the spread.

What?! Innova is a chinese company. Are you getting confused with InnovaDerma?! They're a skincare company lol

I'm sticking with my £10 prediction pre results, possibly a rise in anticipation of contract news also...

They won't achieve it, there is not one single target they've hit this year.

Not that it matters, I'm sure they'll have the most vulnerable vaccinated sometime in March.

Jungla your calculations and assumptions make a lot of sense and clear up some of my confusion, thanks!

Shaun, it's pretty much impossible to say how accurate it's likely to be but your total sales for 2020 is very similar to my forecast. I agree very much with everything you wrote in your report update, both positive and the uncertainties.

As for our debate on tests supplied, all I was trying to say is we can assume that we are supplying the UK government £10m worth of exsig direct kits/winterplex. This should be in addition to the 288k tests a month.