Member Info for HarChris

That is very interesting Kilkenny, would love to see the whole article. Someone do a brother a favour and c&p the text here!

Thanks for your replies. One thing in regards to this comment:
'I agree, vaccines are the number one go to for the main population of the world, but they will probably only be as effective as the current vaccines for flu, which appears to be only 50/75 percent effective from year to year even though the vaccine is updated/tweaked for variants every year.'

I wouldn't say this was true. One, covid is not mutating anywhere near the rate that influenza mutates and two, these mRNA vaccines are likely going to be a gamechanger for the future of vaccines, especially if the cold-chain issue is resolved.

But that makes no difference to this investment. Synairgen is currently valued at £290m, peanuts in the grand scheme of things. It doesn't need to be a panacea to be worth ten times what it is currently.

Saint, don't get me wrong, I agree with you. I was simply wondering if not only are they being impatient, are they also incorrect in suggesting he hasn't 'kept to his word' if you want to call it that. I would have thought the IT-IS acquisition satisfied that criteria but if not I assume that q4 claim came after in late October/November.

Thanks Oakleaf, I wasn't meaning to be negative I was just trying to understand how true these claims of stockpiling for future novel viruses. Is there anyway of the drug getting approval as a broad spectrum anti viral or is this just a term used on this bb?

Can anyone clear up the confusion here? I'm seeing a few arguments on twitter now with a couple of french posters questioning Graham's integrity. So when exactly was it stated that there would be a new acquisition in Q4? Was it before or after the acquisition of IT-IS?

I've seen this mentioned a few times but how would this work in reality for future outbreaks of as yet unknown viruses? Surely synairgen would need to go through clinical trials again, not just assume that this will work on each and every virus? Or perhaps I'm wrong on this front...

Porky, it's also worth noting that the companies with high p/e ratios will have assets in the form of plant, property, equipment and intangibles in the billions and sometimes even the tens of billions of pounds. Novacyt is a tiddler of a company still and without the proof of concept can't expect to be valued at a billion pound plus.

To me there is substantial risk in this investment still but the board and people close to the board have put their money in and they know a hell of a lot more than us. This isn't going to bring instant gratification but I still believe there is the chance of life changing returns for those that load up now and are willing to stick it out for the long term...

Does anyone think this is just more evidence that the government refuses to admit to a mistake? Once you have a contract it's highly likely to be renewed rather than look elsewhere for something better?

I say this because if so it adds further weight to our Phase 2 being triggered and further test contracts. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that the q16s and 32s aren't living up to the hype but if there were problems, isn't it likely the government will just push on with the rollout because that's the sort of thing they do time and time again?!!!

It's great to be optimistic but you can't be sure that £12 will be hit soon - the sp is very much in a range of £8-£9 with clear market jitters in the run up to results (sp nearly 4% down in France currently).

These vaccines will bring the pandemic in the west under control, at least to some degree, but it will be a long time before poorer parts of the world see any progress. It's got me thinking that our supply to the WHO and Unicef may be long lasting. The differences between countries will probably lead to some form of nationalism and border protection which also means airport testing is likely to be maintained well into the future - ideally all PCR if LFTs are still unreliable further down the road...

Naewise, my thoughts exactly. Some of the predictions could be reached if January revenues blow all expectations out of the water but otherwise the company will have to prove itself post-covid to reach the dizzy heights many are hoping for...

The board have stated that the goal is to reach midcap status and I believe that is possible, hence why I am invested. But it won't happen overnight. Midcap would have the sp at something like £30. I will happily wait two years+ for that.

£25?! Fair enough but I can't see 300% returns from here to results. The only way I think that's possible is an rns informing the market that H2 is far above forecasts and then it turns out sales for 2020 are north of ~£800m and phase 2 of the contract is triggered.

What I am hoping for ~£375m revenue for 2020 and strong and positive guidance for 2021 which takes us back to the £11-£13 price range.

Every year they try to foresee which strain to make the influenza to be best effective for because
it won't work for all of them.

Is it not likely to be the same with Cov19 or is it too early to know ?
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Sars CoV 2 is mutating as we know but currently it's mutating at a much slower rate than influenza. From what I've read the likelihood is that it won't pose as big a challenge as influenza in regards to vaccine production - it is notoriously difficult to create highly effective vaccines for influenza with efficacy as low as 25% some years I believe.

Hamsters, what we know is that every month from February to July a trading update was released and sales grew month on month. Then for whatever reason the trading updates stopped... we obviously can't say for sure that Graham and the team chose to stop the updates so as to keep quiet about ever increasing sales but it's a very reasonable assumption - especially if they continued to grow substantially.

The reasons I believe the results will be exceptional are that the updates stopped, the DHSC contract was announced and then 5 or 6 directors/PDMRs bought shares (approximately 60 days before Jan results). To me that could well be a huge hint of what's about to come...

It's incredibly difficult for newsreaders, reporters and scientists to know what to do in these times as they have to be extremely careful not to give conspiracy theorists and anti vaxxers ammunition. It leads to questionable claims going unchallenged which is rather problematic in itself.

Thanks Hartlebury, that makes it a little clearer. So in other words when it comes to the private sector it is not as simple as number of primer design tests x £10 (or £30 if talking winterplex), we could well be providing plenty of additional support and facilities that bolster the bottom line.

There are a number on here including myself and Tay on twitter that believe the recent silence from the board is due to playing down the gigantic cashpile that novacyt is building during this pandemic. If our theory is correct then everyone should be pleasantly surprised in three or four weeks time...

I will stick with my prediction of £325m - £425m as I don't think that's an unrealistic range to be looking at.

Donno, that doesn't make sense to me. If Wren Healthcare is just like the other private clinics what is Versalab? It's not playing a role at all if primer design are simply providing the tests like they are for hospitals and the other private clinics???

Would someone on here be kind enough to explain something to me? Right we know there's a long list of private clinics such as City Doc, Nationwide Pathology etc etc that are using our tests and then there's Wren Healthcare which is 'powered by versalab'. So in the former case I assume that our only involvement is that we are supplying tests, so we get ~£10 for each test used. What about the latter? Is Wren Healthcare basically novacyt and thus we are providing staff and processing capacity? In other words for Wren would we be getting the entire £150 for the service or am I missing something?

If someone could fully explain the distinction between the private clinics and Versalab/Wren I would be extremely grateful!

Without meaning to sound pessimistic revenue of £190m would almost certainly see the sp fall. £190m equates to June's revenue for July, August, September etc but with demand outstripping supply during this time and with the new DHSC contract in addition, the market is definitely expecting more. Not the £500m that many PIs seem to be hoping for but £300m I would guess.

Not necessarily true - usually more derampers about when there's uncertainty and a chance for shorters to take advantage.