Member Info for HarChris

France finished blue.. We’ll catch up tomorrow.
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No it didn't. We are completely matched with France (do the conversion).

So if you all think everyone would go for the least you need then we better hope countries continue to demand a PCR test or they'll be unused for air travel...

I am trying to second guess what the average person will go for if given the choice of PCR or antigen test. I imagine if people feel they are free of covid they will want the most accurate test and avoid the test that might give them a false positive. They also would prefer to know if they actually have covid, whether asymptomatically or not...

On the other hand some will just go for the cheaper test with the faster turnaround. What do others think?

People are still going to get tested for covid and other health problems recession or not.

Crab, there's lots of differing opinions on when phase 2 must be triggered by, some thought it was yesterday (28th).

But yeah phase 2 is an absolute gamechanger, any whiff of that and this is seeing new all time highs - fingers crossed!

Absolutely no evidence for that rampy Crabby but I can't picture the government pulling out of a major contract like this when they are so up against it right now - they won't want the bad press for starters.

While we're at it Zwart could you tone down the unadulterated ramping, it gets a bit much at times!

Larry
@Larry64450205
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57m
The atamis Document is avaiable for the £4.6m award only At the moment.

?? maximum of 84k tests

?? Performed by CCL ?? wich use novacyts test.

These sorts of tenders are going to trickle through time and time again til at least the end of 2021 and probably into 2022. Even without non covid acquisitions novacyt/pd are going to be kept pretty busy for some time to come...

At the very least I'm extremely confident that the sp will hold at this level as the cash pile continues to build...

mortgagefreeman, please tell me your eve means the same as our eve and not synairgen's eve!

Vaccine rollout 0

Yes it's novel and all that but failing to fill a small home trial in seven months in the middle of a pandemic is pretty poor.

World Health Organization experts have warned that even though the coronavirus pandemic has been very severe, it is “not necessarily the big one”, and that the world will have to learn to live with Covid-19.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/who-warns-covid-19-pandemic-is-not-necessarily-the-big-one

If we are to supply the government tests for years to come that is a very good base in which to reach midcap from.

It's also worth remembering that no vaccine will be 100% effective and the Oxford/Azn vaccine which most in the UK will have is more like 70%. As this is such an infectious virus there will still be a large number of people infected next winter that have had the vaccine, as well as those that haven't...

Sorry Tiger if I offended you, there is a difference though... those that suffer from severe allergies are being told to avoid the pfizer vaccine (and possibly the Moderna too). That's just a fact.

Whereas no one is actually dying from the vaccine.

Whatnotnews, when I say that the vaccine will bring the pandemic under control, but that I mean we will without doubt be in a different place to where we are now in the not too distant future. There's no question that once the majority of healthcare workers and over 70s are vaccinated (definitely by the summer, probably April time) we will not be facing the kind of restrictions we are currently facing. That's not debatable.

There will still be a long way to go and other problems will likely rear their ugly head such as vaccine evading mutations and how to protect those that are vulnerable and can't/have not been vaccinated but it will still pale in comparison to the threat we are faced with currently.

Excellent post, thanks. I am with you on the reason for withholding figures and was sure of it as soon as the first director buy came in on about the 10th November. And I'm with you on revenue for H2 2020 and H1 2021 - how much though will make a big difference as it will tell us just how much of a market share we currently have. If it's larger than we realise then we'll still be bringing in substantial cash in covid H2 2021 and possibly well into 2022 if the vaccine rollout is managed poorly.

As for transforming into a next gen decentralised pcr screening company, well there's a lot of execution risk there for sure but if they do pull that off like you seem to think then this will prove to be an absolutely exceptional place to be investing our money.

Exciting times ahead!

Doc, I was joking too, I thought that obvious!

Tiger, it's stupid because it's clearly intended to mislead by linking vaccines to heart attacks. It's sensationalist and better suited to Qanon or something of that ilk.

So Doc, are you suggesting it was that that killed him?!

Tay, I don't know your background but it's always reassuring to hear from you. I'm not in the camp that feels we are wildly undervalued currently but that could all change once we get the full year results. I've compiled a list of pros and cons which I think are worth taking into account going forward. What do you think?

Pros (i) Zero debt; (ii) Extremely high profit margins (iii) Distributors all over the world so not completely reliant on UK (iv) relationship with DHSC already established - easier to get contracts extended/renewed vs tendering for new contracts (vi) Vaccinations will not reach developing world for years, approved with the WHO & Unicef supplier (vii) Potential revenue for 2021 is off the chart with airline testing/private testing/versalab (viii) The board have a clear strategy going forward and believe there are gaps in the diagnostics market for them to fill (something I have zero knowledge of) (ix) We will be entering a post covid world with money earmarked for the diagnostics sector.

Cons. (i) Still realistically a tiny company punching well above its weight with virtually no assets - heavily reliant on the cash pile being built (ii) Vaccines are here and the pandemic in the west should be brought under control by the summer (iii) Demand for testing will obviously fall, but to what degree we don't yet know (iv) Some question marks over our near person testing - a crucial long term revenue source. This might prove to be just a couple of disgruntled/unskilled nhs workers and not a genuine issue. (v) A little too reliant on government contracts currently unless we are hit with some surprises next month (vi) Imo will not draw a p/e inline with industry until we are in a post-covid world, 2022.