Member Info for HarChris

The backdrop doesn’t help either. Having seen lithium price rally hard recently (almost 100% above mid 2025 low) i wondered if graphite prices were starting to recover but couldn’t find much. This is what Grok has to say:

Graphite Update (as of late 2025)

Graphite has not joined the commodity rally — it's very much still in the doldrums and has been one of the worst-performing battery metals this year.

- Prices for natural flake graphite (the battery-relevant grade) have continued to fall or stay depressed throughout 2025, hitting multi-year lows.

- Benchmark Chinese 94-97% flake graphite FOB prices hovered in the $500–600/MT range for most of the year (e.g., ~$573/MT in Q3, down from already-low 2024 levels).

- Ex-China prices (US/Europe) are higher due to tariffs, diversification efforts, and supply-chain security premiums — typically $800–1,300/MT — but even those have declined quarter-on-quarter (e.g., US spot around $876–914/MT in Q3, down from ~$1,290/MT earlier in the year).

The main reasons:

- Massive oversupply from China (which still controls 90% of refined spherical graphite/anode material).

- Slower-than-expected EV demand growth in 2024–early2025 allowed inventories to build.

- China's 2023 export controls caused a brief spike, but the effect faded quickly as buyers found workarounds and new supply came online (Mozambique, Brazil, Madagascar, etc.).

There is a growing price divergence: Chinese/domestic prices remain rock-bottom, while Western buyers are paying a premium (sometimes 50–100% higher) for non-Chinese material. Analysts expect Chinese prices to stay low through 2025–2026, but ex-China prices could firm up in 2026+ as new plants qualify material and tariffs bite harder (US Section 301 tariffs on Chinese graphite anodes rise to 25% in 2026).

Bottom line: graphite is the laggard among battery metals right now. No real recovery yet.

If the company takes off interest will increase and there will be plenty of opportunity for WeCap to slowly offload enough to realise significant value via a vis current tiny market cap. Especially via offbook transactions (at a discount to market rate) to avoid hurting the share price.

As long as the SGC data is as good as the majority are hoping for there will be every expectation that a deal will follow within the current cashed-up window and the share price momentum should continue.

That won’t happen.

And that's exactly what the additional funding has allowed for, SGC data and then as many as six months to complete a deal.

I'm sure it will be much sooner than that but that's the luxury a H2 cash runway gives vs January.

That was genuinely very funny. Nice one!

... because it's not a straightforward process, it takes time and money.

A US OTC listing would make much more sense.

‘ I don’t use Grok. For balance why don’t you ask it about Timster and his twat. ’

I will if they ask someone to like you did.

It isn’t a nominee account… you never see such intense selling from discretionary clients as they don’t all act in the same way. The selling from 18% to sub 10% in a matter of trading days very much points to it being a whole entity. The continuous selling since makes it highly likely they are either done or close to zero now.

Last Thursday they went below 10% ie below 43m and that’s all we’re going to get. There’s been more than enough volume since to fully clear them.

It's not that deep Wyn, Touk asked someone to find where he had mentioned '20p' that's all but strangely that post seems to have disappeared.

It took all of one minute with AI and was just a bit of fun.

For a bit of fun Touk and because you asked I went to Grok:

Toukankahmoon is one of the most prolific contributors there – member since November 2020, with **4,111 total posts** (almost all on the AVCT thread, plus occasional posts on a few other small-cap biotech threads like ABDX and HEMO). They post multiple times most days and have been consistently active right through to the last few days (latest visible posts from 30 Nov / 1 Dec 2025).

Their posting style is overwhelmingly cautious-to-bearish. They repeatedly highlight cash-burn risks, question management decisions, point out dilution dangers, and warn about the company could be forced into a heavily discounted fundraising if data or cashflow disappoints. The specific "20p placing" warning is something they have brought up **many times** over the last 12–18 months

Examples from indexed posts/snippets:

Multiple older posts where they (or others quoting them) refer to the risk of buying at 33p only to see "a fund raise at 20p as predicted by Toukankahmoon".

- References to 20p (or sub-30p) placings appear in dozens of their posts or in direct replies to them – it's clearly a recurring theme.

- They also talk regularly about "lowball" or heavily discounted placings in general, CLN conversion risks, "death spiral" type scenarios if milestones are missed, etc.

So the accusations are **completely fair and accurate**. Toukankahmoon **does** regularly (very regularly) suggest the share price could be vulnerable to a crash towards 20p-ish levels in the event of a forced fundraising, and they bang on about lowball/dilutive placings as a core risk. It's probably their single most frequent bearish talking point over the last couple of years.

They aren't a pure deramper (they appear to hold a decent position and celebrate good news when it arrives), but they are relentlessly focused on the downside risks, and the 20p/lowball placing scenario is absolutely something they have pushed repeatedly.

I think all that you'd just said has some truth to it but that's a very negative interpretation of the current outlook. I think there are some important factors you're ignoring:

At $39k Andrada is without doubt generating positive cash flow today so there won't be any raise just for working capital. Yes some is lost for the hedge but even factoring that in and without any increase from the jig plant and high grade ore Andrada will be posting $7.25m+ revenue per quarter.

In probably four to six weeks we'll know where we're at with the jig plant and decision re mining the high grade ore. If a thumbs up on both that will at least double production relatively quickly and if the utilisation and recoveries are as hoped will be closer to a trebling of production. What do you think that's going to do to the all in sustaining costs? There's large fixed and semi-fixed costs that won't change so I would imagine total operational costs wouldn't rise by more than 50%, factoring the scale that'll bring AISC by at least $5k/t and likely closer to $10k/t as well as $2k/t shaved off the Orion royalty giving an AISC of ~$22k/t including the royalty ie enormous profits would be seen at this elevated tin price on 2x or more production volume.

Then there's Lithium Ridge. Right now we have SQM, the world's second biggest lithium producer valued at $18b undertaking a 14000m diamond drilling campaign which kicked off three months ago. I suspect we aren't far off getting some news on this front and if it's positive it'll increase the chances of an eventual takeover of this project for what could well be a number that dwarfs the entire Andrada market cap right now.

The above factors alongside the lithium price continuing to strengthen will open up the lithium opportunity at Uis which has always been where the big opportunity lies.

As for the talk of dilution it's important to remember that Andrada is no AIM minnow forced to raise at huge discounts to keep their head above water. They have significant major shareholder backers who are likely to continue to support on both the debt front and via subscriptions at around market price. Just look at the last raise in June, done at an 8% premium to the 15 day VWAP.

To be fair we’re only talking a few months later than September all being well, not years. Won’t make a great deal of difference in the long run and it’s given some of us a chance to add more in the low 3s with lithium starting to look exciting alongside.

Just look at the holding RNS’ on the way up to their 18% holding and you get your answer… they did not declare at the 3% threshold and only declared once they were over 10%.

And no it’s not a nominee account I’m pretty sure, there’s no mention of discretionary clients.

If Peel Hunt wanted fully out this week then they’re out, there’s been more than enough volume to clear them. If they are happy to sit on their last few percent and just sell into rises then they may have a few percent left.

Either way they don’t have the firepower to halt a big rise the next time we see a buying pressure build up.

A few more weeks have passed and no placing like some of the neg heads have been calling for. Doesn’t mean it definitely won’t happen but those of us saying it’s not necessary are looking a bit more credible.

Landscape should be far improved in a month or so’s time from now.

A bit… more… patience… required. It’s coming, the backdrop’s amazing, the management is much stronger than it was, the jurisdiction is excellent.

Navigate the next funding round successfully (with Raglan producing it could come via debt or be very minor) we should be talking multiples from this 0.2p level in six months time.

It’s a guessing game but my educated guess is that there’s barely any left between Res Privata and Peel, 10m tops but likely half that.

A couple of committed buyers will blow them out of the water now.

'Correlation to tin price ended with Orion's arrival'

____________

Well despite all the investment ATM produced 454t contained tin in H1 2023 around the time Orion begun investing, this H1 two year's later it's 511t. That's 12% increase, not good enough when it took a trebling of debt to get here.

Should look totally different this time next year but I don't personally blame Orion for Andrada's operational performance, if production had increased as targeted the royalty would be a fraction of what it is.