Member Info for HarChris

That’s a kind interpretation of what happened.

One could easily argue that if it wasn’t for Covid Avacta wouldn’t be in the position they’re in now but that was less Alastair and more the crazy times we were in that brought so much attention and an elevated share price from 2020 right through to 2023. One raise in that time at 120p is not exactly taking advantage of such a situation, of such luck, especially when the share price spent a good while in the mid 200s.

Failing to leverage the high share price and instead doubling down on the diagnostics through the use of the convertible bond was such poor judgement. And to do that with ava6000 data in hand is even more egregious.

I don’t hate on Alastair either but I also won’t look back nostalgically at someone who so almost buried Avacta with his decisions when even the average PI at the time was scratching their head as to the strategy.

There were a whole host of reasons why Avacta traded at a higher share price than it does now including Alastair’s extremely bullish statements such as ‘the holy grail’ but he absolutely failed to leverage that back in early 2024. No way can we say that placing was anything other than a failure of management.

For starters it was utterly counterproductive to state / imply that Avacta was overvalued some months before, saying it was valued higher than comparative peers. And secondly running the cash down to near zero and having no contingency at the back end of 2023 into 2024 left Avacta vulnerable when forced to raise. Certain they could have got a raise away well above £1 in autumn 2023 and then continued with commercial deal making negotiations.

And yet if it wasn’t for that calamity we’d almost certainly still have Alastair in charge instead of the wonderful Christina so every cloud and all that.

Believe it or not I never post for any other reason than that I enjoy sharing my thoughts and debating with others and I guess to see if any challenges to my views make me question if I have the facts right or not.

As for where we are now I do find it fascinating that despite, IMO, the company's future looking very much in doubt the share price is exactly the same as it was three months ago. Obviously there is no mass sell off / the largest holders haven't exited for whatever reason. Certainly going to be interesting to see what the next RNS is in the coming weeks.

Nov 15th...

WSHP price $30, WeCap 3p

Dec 5th

WSHP price $125, WeCap 2p

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At the very least we'll likely look back in the coming weeks and see the above as the two ends of the spectrum.

You’re the one acting extremely childish and juvenile. I’ve shared my coherent position and why I still follow and post. I sold when the target subtly downgraded from 1000 oz to ‘maintaining production levels’ at 300 oz. I was open about buying back if the course corrected and have followed interestedly since and am still interested to see if I’m right in saying GRL are sleepwalking into administration or if I turn out to be totally wrong. We find that out soon.

This quote from many months ago makes me wonder how I could be wrong though, seeing as there’s been no update since. Does an under pressure management team obscure good news?

‘’ I look forward to updating shareholders over the coming weeks and months as we work to build further momentum through the remainder of 2025."

I’m in the ‘thinking about popping along to the AGM’ camp too, be good to talk to the directors / maybe witness Tom’s kicking off of the board live !

It’s looking more and more likely we will see approval for mining at Goantagab so what we should hopefully be looking at is second jig plant operating soon (perhaps January) and as soon as the approval is given for Goantagab that operation as part of the supply agreement will start immediately.

And with tin looking so good I imagine a decision will be made to buy the operation out for $15m in relatively swift order, will pay for itself in no time.

You all have a different take on why we're here (incompetence, fraud, lies etc) but even if the 1000 oz target was a hard lie (I still err on the side of believing Emma thought she could achieve it but has utterly failed) the market bought it enough to be trading over a penny a share and the debt was more like $6m. They could easily have raised that through a big placing at 1p a share and be debt free so to say.

Today that's out the window with less than four weeks til maturity.

What constitutes a great risk/reward is I guess subjective but I can’t see how 0.4p today isn’t way, way, way poorer risk/reward than it was three months ago when there was still a chance of a few improved gold pours to help build a bit of momentum into any renegotiation.

But today, when the company have gone silent sharing no gold pours since the one in mid August despite promising to keep shareholders abreast of progress? They’re literally telling you that all is a total mess behind the scenes.

Would be amazed if the company is still trading this time next month.

I know that, that’s why I caveated that comment by saying they won’t support indefinitely but fact still remains that such institutional support derisks the investment at this stage.

IIs actually increasing is a bullish sign.

The fact that Andrada has such institutional support substantially derisks things here. Of course they won’t support them forever but it buys plenty of time for the business case to play out as we hope with the big backers there to step in if necessary without being excessively diluted (why dilute themselves?)

Whilst this $40k tin price should be the making of Andrada it is still providing positive cash flow at the group level for what is the first time ever. It’s a milestone even if the cash build is more like $1m a quarter vs the $5m that could be made with the full high grade ore/jig plant expansion.

Others might not agree but I’m far more comfortable waiting for things to play out with tin at $40k and lithium attempting a recovery than I would be if tin and lithium prices were lower.

It's a simple loan plus an add-on benefit to Yorkville of discounted shares relative to market price if the share price truly takes off within the payback period.

They don't, the ATM will be paid for by shareholders via smaller at-the-market placings.

Yorkville aren't taking shares is my read, Hamak have been leant £2.5m (£2.325m net) and Hamak start repaying £250k per month + interest from February onwards.

The ATM will have to be used to make those monthly repayments so essentially the price drawn down from the ATM will be the shares being issued for this.

If Hamak price takes off before it's all been repaid they can demand the outstanding value at 2.4p a share but otherwise it's cash repayments paid for from ATM.

Totally misleading to keep going on about a takeover.

The informal offer that supposedly happened in April came at a time when GRL had eight months to repay $6m and were expecting 1000 ounces per month imminently hence prospects were good.

Today they have four weeks to repay $10.5m and have zero chance of 1000 ounces per month and the silence re gold pours suggests they may not even be mining at Homase as of right now. They might have downed tools.

Any acquirer will just wait for administration this close to maturity now.

They are profitable at $40k even factoring in the hedge and the large Orion royalty. Obviously they aren’t going to have been profitable in the quarter about to be reported nor will it show in the next full year results but they will be seeing the cash figure steadily rising month on month if tin price is to stay here buying time without the need to raise til the jig plant teething issues are sorted and or/ the high grade ore begins its journey to Uis.

I know it’s not ideal and Andrada really should be making a fortune right now but as long as the supply agreement at Goantagab remains then those profits are coming… and in the meantime there’s always potential for left field news out of Lithium Ridge with SQM.

What it is certainly doing is providing Andrada with positive cash flow at the group level at a crucial juncture as we wait to find out the Namibian High Court verdict on Gaontagab and for the second jig plant to be commissioned.

So it’s certainly buying Andrada time for all to fit into place in the coming months.

Data + expectation of an imminent deal saw the share price rise as high as 170p in late 2023. This is where we are again and so positive SGC data should see the share price well above £1 as the market anticipates commercial deals to follow.

… of course if no deal materialises the share price would then fall back in March/April but right now data moves the share price .

Well he was calling for a penny not too long ago so I'd be very surprised if he chooses this low at 0.21p to start dumping.

Wouldn't be surprised if he offloaded some before the recent placing.

We were needing a change in sentiment once the selling had dried up, tomorrow and the rest of the week should see a significant recovery.